Bill Shanks is a writer for the Macon Telegraph, the self-appointed news source of Middle Georgia. Yesterday he posted an article comparing the career paths of Jason Heyward and Jeff Francouer, calling the similarities "striking" and generally shooting from the hip with his feared adjective revolver.
The unfortunate fact about this event is that Bill Shanks is read regularly by a large swath of people, people that rely on him to provide objective, sound, reasoned assessment of the team they love. Sure, they may have other options (the internet), but many of them are willing to take him at his word. Maybe it's because they follow the team casually, or maybe it's because they're ensconced in their opinions and enjoy having them reinforced. Regardless, it is words like those of Shanks' that lead people astray from the reality of this situation: Jason Heyward and Jeff Francoeur couldn't be more different. For him to imply that they are is an insult to the intellectual capacity of his readers.
Let's clear some of the obvious misconceptions. First, Heyward does not have a "rocket" arm. It is average, at best. He is, however, an infinitely better fielder than Francoeur, whose defense peaked in 2007 and has trailed off ever since.
In 2007, Francoeur's best season of his entire career, Francoeur's WAR-value was closer to Heyward's value in 2011 (Heyward's worst season) than it was in Heyward's best (2012). Jeff Francoeur, at his holistic peak, is only worth 1.5 more wins than Jason Heyward at his lowest point.
Francoeur's OBP and OPS fell from 2006-2008. His LD% stayed rather constant, deviating between ~18% and ~20%. His GB% increased ~6% during this time, and his FB% decreased at approximately the same rate. Perhaps most tellingly, runs vales on all pitches declined rapidly over this span of time. To put it simply, he was never a good slider/curve hitter, and his only saving grace was his ability against fastballs. Once he lost that in 2008, any hope of him being an above-average, "Dale Murphy"-type of player was all but out the window.
As for Heyward, his OBP and OPS have taken a hit this year due to his rough start. His walks are down, but so are his strikeouts. He's hitting more line-drives (~6% over his career avg), and his FB% is in-line with his career numbers, meaning he's hitting fewer groundballs. He's also hitting fewer infield-flys, as his percentage is down to 4.8% in 2013, well below his career number of 7.5%. He's not hitting fastballs as well as he did during his rookie season, and his work against lefties leaves a lot to be desired, but he has always been a good offspeed hitter, consistent with what one would expect from a guy with his plate discipline.
None of this is to say that Jason Heyward is a blameless future Hall-of-Famer that can do no wrong. As previously stated, his work against LHP needs to improve, lest Fredi feels compelled to platoon with Reed Johnson. But it's worth keeping in mind that Heyward is just 23, and given the level of ability he has displayed in his young career, a degree of patience is in order. Believing he'll follow the path of a player, whose career for all intents and purposes is finished, is assuming too much too soon. Attempting to pass it off as fact is silliness of the highest order.
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