Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Jason Heyward is still who we thought he was

There has been a substantial amount of teeth-gnashing regarding the performance of Jason Heyward so far this season.  Some have even called into the question the amount of playing time he has seen, wishing instead to see the "hot hand" of Jordan Schafer take his place in the lineup.  Fortunately, cooler heads have prevailed, allowing Jason to work out his issues at the plate, and we appear to be on the cusp of seeing the fruits of his labor.  After all, he did lay on an operating table while other humans removed organs from his body, so a grace period to collect himself was certainly in order. 

Although you wouldn't know it by looking at his batting average, Heyward's approach has improved markedly in 2013.  His BB% is up from last year's 8.9% to 11.4%, and his K% is down from 23.3% to 16.9%.  He is swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone, more pitches inside the zone, and he's making more contact on pitches in general, utilizing all fields very effectively.  He is driving the ball more, hitting fewer ground balls overall, and for a guy with his power, that's a definite positive.  As good as this news is, the better news is shown in this chart:


Since his phenomenal rookie campaign, Heyward's batted-ball statistics are trending exactly how one would want them to.  He did take a step back in 2011, but has shown steady improvement ever since.  His HR/FB is lower than his career average, but that number should regress to closer to his career line as he tallies more plate appearances. 

Speaking of more plate appearances, it has become increasingly clear that Andrelton Simmons is not the answer at the top of the order.  A common contention is that hitting Heyward in that spot will "waste" his power, but there's no evidence to support that line of thinking.  The leadoff hitter only leads off once, so there is plenty of potential for him to hit with runners on base, especially in a lineup with some higher-OBP (relatively speaking) guys hitting further down in the order.  He will get his opportunities to drive in runs, but more important to this team right now is his ability to not just get on base but run them as well as anyone in the game.  Doing so ahead of the meat of this lineup will yield dividends in the long-run. 

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