Thursday, June 27, 2013

The Braves and Kevin Gregg

Kevin Gregg is a right-handed reliever that has gone from almost being out of baseball to one of the game's hottest names, closing for a Cubs team that has no chance of contending in the NL central and posting career-best numbers in the process.  With July's trade deadline a little over a month away, the interest in his services is heating up, and according to MLBTradeRumors, the Braves are in the mix.

As far as Gregg is concerned, there are a few stats that immediately stand out when digging into his peripherals.  First, he has cut his BB% by ~30%, sitting at ~7% in 2013 versus his ~10% career average.  His is striking out more batters (26% in 2013 to 18.5% career).  He has become a sinker/slider pitcher in 2013, using his four-seam fastball considerably less.  With this, one would expect an increase in GB%, but that's not the case.  His GB% is down nearly 10%, and his LD% and FB% are up above his career average (up nearly 40% in the case of LD%).  He has also been the beneficiary of a high strand rate, leaving 90% of runners on-base, nearly 25% over his career average of 73%.  His FIP is among the lowest for pitchers that are supposed to be available for trade, but the other numbers are concerning.  It's impossible to quantify exactly how much of this is due to his development of a new pitch (the sinker), but the leading indicators are pointing toward his performance being more smoke-and-mirrors than actual substance. 

Gregg's salary info is unavailable, but it's safe to assume he's probably making close to league-minimum, as the Cubs signed him to a minor-league deal before the start of the season.  Due to his laudable performance and the fact that he's being paid very little, the Cubs find themselves in an enviable position, essentially having struck gold on a veteran guy that came with almost no risk whatsoever.  They will certainly exploit that position and demand a lot in return for Gregg, especially considering how weak the reliever market is in 2013.

The Braves have dealt with Chicago before, most recently during the Vizcaino-Maholm/Johnson deal, but when considering what the Braves are ostensibly looking for in a relief pitcher, Kevin Gregg doesn't seem to be a good fit. 

(Stats via FanGraphs)

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