Sunday, June 23, 2013

Series recap and a thought about Ks

Much to the chagrin of fantasy owners everywhere, the Braves could only muster seven runs for the entire series against the Brewers, despite facing a battered pitching staff in a park that hemorrhages homers.  Peralta and Hand obliged to the Braves' wishes to see who could pop the ball straight up in the air the furthest, posting what will most likely be their best lines of the entire season against Atlanta.

The collective team wOBA was a paltry .262 for the series, skewed by today's .443 effort.  Although the team was able to coax eight walks in the first two games, their patience was left wanting with runners on base.  It was the first time the Braves had been shutout back-to-back in 2013.  

It was reported over the weekend that Ramiro Pena will have his shoulder looked at tomorrow, and that Justin Upton's absence for the past two games was due to a sore hand.  Losing Pena is a big deal, as his replacements (Janish and Pastornicky) are inferior as a whole, though Janish may be better defensively and Pastornicky is probably at least his equal offensively.  Losing Upton seems like a huge deal based off brand recognition alone, and it certainly hurts, but considering his play during any month that isn't April (as well as that of Schafer), a few days off may not be that bad for him.  Looking at his performance and keeping in mind his dizzying array of swings-and-misses, one is compelled to wonder if this isn't an issue that has lingered for a while.  If the Braves didn't have a six-game lead in the east, he may be more inclined to play through it, but luckily, they can afford to take him out of the lineup and get him the rest he needs.  Justin Upton playing at 100% is crucial to this team's chances of making and succeeding in the playoffs.

There has been a great amount of hand-wringing over the amount of strikeouts the Braves have accumulated and many people point to that statistic as the definitive reason for their struggles offensively.  Including today's game, the Braves are striking out 8.77 times per game.  During losses, the average number is 9.79, and during wins, it's an even 8.  Strikeouts have a run-value of -.301, versus non-strikeouts events having a -.299 run-value.  In others words, there's a difference, but it's moot, and certainly not something that can be viewed as the culprit for the Braves' struggles offensively. 

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