Monday, June 24, 2013

Offensive team leaders

After starting the season red-hot offensively, the Braves have slowly sunk toward the median of all MLB teams in terms of overall output.  Their play for the month of June finds them in the bottom 40% or worse in many metrics, and it's disturbing to think about how much worse their record could be if the pitching wasn't performing up to its' current standards.  With that said, here are some leaders in categories of interest on offense (note: players with less than 100 ABs are not considered, so no Laird, Rev, or Reed Johnson).

BB%:

1. Dan Uggla (15.2%)
2. Justin Upton (14.4%)
3. Jordan Schafer (13.2%)
4. Brian McCann (11.1%)
5. BJ Upton (10.5%)
...
last: Andrelton Simmons (5%)

No real surprises here, although Schafer may seem like a surprise.  His career BB% is 10.6%, so while he has outperformed that to this point, he's reaching the necessary amount of plate appearances for the stat to stabilize.  For a leadoff guy, Simmons' number is extremely low.

wOBA:

1. Jordan Schafer (.384)
2. Evan Gattis (.373)
3. Chris Johnson (.359)
4. Freddie Freeman (.359)
5. Brian McCann (.349)
...
last: BJ Upton (.262)

Jordan Schafer is outperforming his career number (.289) by nearly 100 points, so it's safe to say he won't maintain that level of production throughout the season.  However, we are reaching the point where an adjustment of expectations for him may be warranted.  No, he's not going to turn into Shin-Soo Choo, but he's clearly better than the proto-Schafer that drew such ire from the Atlanta media a few years ago.

BJ Upton's slow start has doomed his ability to achieve high marks in this category, but as we're seeing, past performance isn't a true indicator of future ability. 

ISO:

1. Evan Gattis (.333)
2. Justin Upton (.214)
3. Brian McCann (.213)
4. Dan Uggla (.199)
5. Ramiro Pena (.165)
...
last: Andrelton Simmons (.088)

Again, nothing surpris...wait, PENA?  Yes, Ramiro Pena has hit for more power than Heyward, Freeman, Chris Johnson, etc.  Yes, it has come in 107 ABs and will almost certainly fall, but let's enjoy it while we can.  Sadly, three pitchers have higher ISOs than Simmons (Hudson, Medlen, Minor), and while that's indicative of nothing due to their lack of ABs, it certainly jumps off the page when looking at the stat.

OPS:

1. Evan Gattis (.894)
2. Jordan Schafer (.876)
3. Chris Johnson (.830)
4. Freddie Freeman (.822)
5. Brian McCann (.805)
...
last: BJ Upton (.589)

Schafer's position on this list is primarily due to his high OBP, whereas the inverse is true for Gattis, whose prodigious power has him first on the list.  BJ finds himself last on another list, but if his recent performance is any indication, that won't last long.

wRC+

1. Jordan Schafer (147)
2. Evan Gattis (140)
3. Chris Johnson (130)
4. Freddie Freeman (130)
5. Brian McCann (123)
...
last: BJ Upton (63)

None of this should be surprising given the performance of the players listed.  Again, Upton should be out of the doghouse if his recent performance keeps up, as he trails Simmons by only 6 points.

BABIP:

1. Jordan Schafer (.418)
2. Chris Johnson (.401)
3. Freddie Freeman (.368)
4. Ramiro Pena (.312)
5. Justin Upton (.289)
...
last: BJ Upton (.230)

This stat gives us some insight as to why Schafer and Johnson rank so highly in so many different categories.  Schafer's speed lends itself to a higher BABIP by virtue of the fact that he gets down the line faster and can beat out weak grounders in the infield.  Johnson doesn't have that quality, and while he's a good hitter, this number can be expected to fall, along with the other peripheral statistics in which he has performed well.  Not to say that he's going to turn into an offensive black hole, just that he has gotten somewhat lucky so far, especially when you consider his LD% rate is right in-line with his career average (23.7% in 2013 v. 23.9%).  Freddie Freeman's number may drop some, too, but he's a line-drive hitter, and his LD% has steadily increased over the course of his career.  One can probably expect to see his BABIP number somewhere in the neighborhood of .350 at the end of the season. 

Coming into the season, it was widely assumed this would be an all-or-nothing offense, and with 11 zero-run efforts on the ledger to go along with a few 10-0-style laughers, that assessment isn't far off.  The second half of the season should see the emergence of Heyward, BJ Upton, and McCann as consistent threats (to varying degrees), and if that happens, the second-half version of this list could look very different. 

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