Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Uggla's value

With the conclusion of July, Dan Uggla's five-year, $62M contract enters the second half of its' lifespan.  Up to this point, the reviews have not been kind, as Uggla has found himself the focal point of many a fan's angst.  Whether it's his batting average, the high strikeouts, the sub-par defense in the field, the guy just can't seem to catch a break with a fan base that was so eager to embrace him in 2011.  Does that matter?  Of course not, because most fans are, ahem, not in a position to make an objective valuation of a player anyway.

It's typical of the casual fan to look at his batting average and say "hey, he's only hitting .202, let's trade him!"  It's not that they intentionally ignore the myriad of other statistics that paint a clearer picture, it's that they're largely unaware of the degree to which they can be relied upon.  In the case of Uggla, one look at his traditional stats would lead one to believe that he's a below-average player.  This assumption is invalid.

Through today, Uggla has amassed exactly seven wins-above-replacement during two-and-a-half seasons of starting at 2B for Atlanta.  In other words, he has been worth seven more wins than a player of lesser, or "replacement-level", ability.  Those wins have a value that can be translated into dollars, and without getting too technical, the commonly accepted dollar amount for a win in this scenario is ~$5M, a number that fluctuates with the inflation/deflation of contracts and other financial interests.  For example, Mike Trout was worth 10 wins-above-replacement in 2012, a value of $50M.  Yet, he only received $500K in compensation, leaving the Angels with a surplus value of $49.5M.  Conversely, Josh Hamilton has been worth half a win thus far in 2013, but he will make ~$17.5M, leaving the Angels with a $2.5M deficit.  With regard to Uggla, after taking the accepted dollar value of a win ($5M) and multiplying it by the number of wins Uggla has been valued at during his time in Atlanta (seven wins), we end up with ~$35M, a little over half of the total value of his contract.  That's not superstar production by any means, and it's likely not the level of production that Frank Wren had in mind when he signed Uggla, but it's better than what the Braves were getting from Brooks Conrad and Omar Infante.

Uggla is 33 years old, and there's a good chance that this will be his best season as a Brave.  It's rare for a 2B to age well, particularly one whose power is his main asset.  Jeff Kent did, but he's the exception to the rule.  The days of Uggla hitting .280 are long gone, but if he can hit 30+ home runs and get on base via walks, that's a valuable player.  Unfortunately for him, most fans will remember him for falling short of their expectations, expectations that they would likely have a hard time explaining/justifying if they were ever pressed to do so. 

At the end of 2015, Uggla will likely walk and take a flyer with an AL team, perhaps as a DH.  Barring an unforeseen collapse in his skill set, he will likely do so having earned every penny of the $62M owed to him throughout the life of his contract.  He will also likely be the butt of many a joke told by the unwashed masses, but $62M has a way of taking the sting out of criticism. 

Monday, July 29, 2013

Rockies series preview

Today's series preview will be a briefer version than usual, as the author has pending obligations to fulfill as a) husband and b) below-average participant in a pickup basketball game.  Nevertheless, here we go.

After starting the season strong, the Rockies seemed poised to make a splash in an NL West division that appeared to be anybody's game.  As the season has wore on the dynamic has changed, as the Dodgers have started to establish themselves as the class of the division.  As such, the Rockies find themselves in a tough spot.  They're only six games out of the division lead, but with LA's resurgence, making up that ground could prove difficult.  To compound the issue, due the strength of the NL Central they are unlikely to make the playoffs via the wild card.  Unfortunately, a lackluster July performance (10-13) has done them no favors, and a series loss in Atlanta could prove to be the final nail in the coffin of the 2013 Colorado Rockies.

The Rockies are very similar to the Braves offensively, so much so that their team ISO and OBP are nearly identical.  They hit a lot of home runs but don't strike out as much as Atlanta, nor do they walk as often.  The pitching isn't comparable at all, but given the circumstances of pitching in Coors Field half the time, the performance of their patchwork staff has been somewhat admirable, if not impressive. 

Riding high off their sweep of the Cardinals, the Braves must be sure to keep grounded, as this Rockies team is very capable of coming in and taking three of four, though their road record doesn't indicate that as being very likely.  Colorado knows this series is crucial to their hopes of going to the playoffs, so it's safe to assume they'll be leaving it all out on the field.  If the Braves underestimate them, they could be in for a rude awakening. 

Series matchups:

Tonight, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Jorge de la Rosa v. Brandon Beachy

Tuesday, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Juan Nicasio v. Alex Wood

Wednesday, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Tyler Chatwood v. Mike Minor

Thursday, 7:10 (local broadcast)

TBA v. Julio Teheran

Scott Downs is a Brave

The Braves finally pulled the trigger on a left-handed reliever, acquiring Scott Downs from the LA Angels (of Anaheim, brought to you by Disney Land, etc) for minor leaguer Cory Rasmus. 

On its' face, this trade appears to be a win for both clubs.  Downs is a great LOOGY (Lefty One Out GuY) that doesn't cost much money.  Trading him could be an early signal that the Angels are folding on 2013, astonishing as that may seem.  Their return is a guy with a moderately high ceiling - if he can harness his control.  He has considerably more value in Anaheim than he did in Atlanta, but that's more a statement about the depth of Atlanta's minor-league pitching than it is about Rasmus as a player.  If he gets it together, they've got themselves an eighth or ninth inning guy, and considering that they're not a playoff team this season, he could prove to be valuable for them next year and in the future. 

Downs fills a very specific niche in this bullpen: he is the prototypical LOOGY.  He is the answer to facing the Vottos, Beltrans, Harpers, and Adrian Gonzalezs of the world.  His FIP against lefties is 1.95, and his K/BB ratio is 4.67, nearly five times his number against righties.  Most impressively, his GB/FB ratio against lefties is 6.75, and his combined LD/FB% is 25%.  Let that sink in.  That means that if he doesn't strike out or walk a lefty, 75% of the outcomes are ground balls.  Against righties, well, the numbers don't look nearly as sexy, but if he's used properly, that doesn't matter.  

And that's the point.  Downs is a guy that should come into high-leverage situations against lefties.  He should not pitch against righties under any circumstance short of mop-up duty.  

The Braves will likely assume the remainder of the $1.6M owed to Downs, and he is a free agent after this season, meaning he will likely play the part of mercenary.  Kudos to Frank Wren and Co. for what appears to be another shrewd move.

Friday, July 26, 2013

Cardinals series preview

No one needs to be reminded of the events that took place one warm Atlanta evening last October, as the Cardinals robbed Chipper Jones and Braves country of the storybook finish that seemed so just and poetic.  The bitter aftertaste of the "Infield Fly" lingers heavy to this day, and the phrase itself seems to have taken on f-bomb status amongst the Braves orthodoxy.  Vindication is paramount.  Yes, it's three games.  Yes, the slope of the hill lessens after this series.  But make no mistake, these games could prove to be indicative of the trajectory this team takes the rest of the way.  It's not a make-or-break series by any means, but taking two of three would go a long way in exorcising the demons that have hovered over this team and this fan base since that God-forsaken abomination of a play-in game. 

In an attempt to maintain as much objectivity as possible, the author was initially tempted to describe St. Louis as "arguably the best team Atlanta will face this season," though making sure to note just how good the Tigers are, suggesting perhaps they are somewhat comparable.  Keen observation of their statistical resumes dispels that notion; the Tigers are not in the same class as the Cardinals.  Right now, no one is.  St. Louis is the prized heavyweight fighter, an elite team that can win a game any number of ways.  They have made short work of the NL Central, a division that stands as the class of the league, second only to the AL East in terms of overall strength. 

The Cardinals are led by the NL's most dynamic offense, but their pitching is just as good.  The stats only reinforce their reputation.  They lead the NL in wOBA, wRC+, OBP, SIERA, FIP, and K/BB.  They rate in the top-tier in a plethora of other statistical categories. They are the total package, a team that will provide a definitive litmus test for the Braves.  One common caveat about the Cardinals performance is their batting average when runners are in scoring position, a .340 clip that bests the second-place Tigers by a full 51 points.  This mark stands as a serious outlier relative to the rest of baseball, and while they are an elite offensive club, it's hard to believe they're that good.

After this series concludes, the Braves will only have seven games left against opponents with records currently over .500; four more in St. Louis and three in Atlanta against a Cleveland team that is far from being the Cards' equal.  Essentially, St. Louis is the last really tough club on the schedule for 2013.  That statement in and of itself should be demonstrative of the type of gauntlet the Braves faced in the first half of the season.

The Pitchers:

Former Brave Adam Wainwright will start Friday night's game.  Wainwright finds himself in the thick of Cy Young award discussion with guys like Matt Harvey and Clayton Kershaw.  He's striking out ~eight per game while walking less than one per nine innings.  He also gives up .35 homers per nine.  He's likely having the best season of his career thus far, a serious accomplishment for a guy who is quietly building an early case for Hall of Fame consideration.  He's a cutter/sinker guy that mixes in a nasty curveball as his ace in the hole.  To think that Wainwright was the key piece that brought J.D. Drew and Eli Marrero to Atlanta is downright nauseating.

Joe Kelly gets the ball Saturday afternoon, and offers a sure-to-be welcomed reprieve from Wainwright.  Kelly has started only three games this season, one at the beginning of June, and two within the last couple of weeks.  His results thus far have been mixed, and consequently, it's tough to tell what to make of him.  He has given up his share of homers, including two in a recent start to the clown-car Marlins.  He features a fastball that lives anywhere from 90-95 mph, complimented by a slider, changeup, and the occasional curve.  He keeps the ball on the ground, but his HR/FB ratio is 15.6%, a mark that would be close to the top amongst active pitchers if Kelly had pitched enough innings to qualify.  He's a feast or famine guy, but he's a guy that should be beatable assuming the Braves put on their hitting attire, be it pants, gloves, shoes, socks, whatever.

Sunday's starter is the much-heralded Shelby Miller, a trendy preseason Rookie of the Year pick for many.  In his first full season at the major league level, Miller has done nothing to diminish the lofty expectations many set for him.  His K/BB ratio is nearly four-to-one, and he doesn't give up many homers.  One good bit of news is that Miller is heavily reliant on the fastball, typically a four-seamer that sits around 94 mph.  He also features a strong curve and serviceable changeup.  It's worth noting that July has been his worst month, as his BB% has ticked up a bit along with his HR/9.  This will be his first appearance against Atlanta, and his fastball-heavy repertoire could play favorably against an adequate fastball-hitting Braves team.

Series matchups:

Friday, 7:30 (local broadcast and MLB Network)

Adam Wainwright v. Mike Minor

Saturday, 3:05 (FOX national broadcast)

Joe Kelly v. Julio Teheran

Sunday, 8:00 (ESPN national broadcast)

Shelby Miller v. Kris Medlen

(Stats via FanGraphs)

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Huddy's ankle

Tim Hudson left last night's game with a broken ankle, and will undergo season-ending surgery to have it repaired.  Recovery times from this type of injury vary depending upon the player.  Derek Jeter's ankle fracture kept him on the shelf for roughly nine months, but other guys have come back within three or four months.  Huddy is likely to be on the longer end of the spectrum, as his injury appeared to be acutely devastating. 

Coming back from a broken ankle is tough for any player to do, much less a pitcher closing in on 40.  It's too early to speculate what kind of impact this will have on his decision to come back in 2014, be it to the Braves or another team, but this obviously doesn't make that process any easier.  One hates to underestimate Huddy, and the knowledge of his medical prognosis is lacking (medical knowledge in general is lacking), but the expectation level should be rather low as it relates to his ability to come back from this and be an effective pitcher.  However, if anyone can do it, it's Tim Hudson. 

As for the rest of the season, the loss of Huddy likely means Beachy takes his spot in the rotation, so the rotation as of today would be Beachy/Wood/Medlen/Minor/Teheran with Maholm in limbo, assuming Beachy makes it back to Atlanta with no more setbacks.  Atlanta is in a fortunate position to be as deep as they are pitching-wise, but this may prompt them to become more active in the starting pitching market, a market they've been rumored to be apart of even before the injury. 

The loss of Tim Hudson is a kick to the gut, but it's a blow that can and should be absorbed.  His replacement should provide equivalent value, and the Braves should be able to carry on in 2013 without missing much of a beat.  That's not so much a statement about Huddy as much as it is a statement about organizational depth.  You can never have too much pitching.

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

State of the NL East: past and present

Five short years ago, the NL East was slowly growing in strength.  The Phillies were World Champions, the Marlins and Mets were respectable, and Atlanta and Washington were putting the pieces together to form the talented teams we know them to be today.  Given the position the franchises found themselves in at this point in time, there was no real reason to think the NL East wouldn't grow stronger.  Through a series of inflated contracts, unfortunate business circumstances, and a general lack of self-awareness (just to name a few), the top three teams from 2008 currently find themselves struggling to keep the pace with the younger, sounder teams fielded by the Braves and Nats. 

At least, that was the narrative before the start of the current season.  The reality is that the entire division has ostensibly taken a step back.  No one expected anything of the Marlins or Mets this year, and rightfully so, as those teams are currently in the bottom-tier in terms of major league talent.  Will it be that way five years from now?  Almost certainly not.  No one really considered the Phillies a serious threat either, save a few die-hard fans, Jon Paul Morosi, and of course, the bumbling array of stooges that comprise the Philadelphia front office.  They're probably in a lot more trouble than many people realize.  Yes, a huge, sexy TV deal is in the works, but as the Angels and Yankees are proving, money doesn't make you an instant-winner.  The fact that Ruben Amaro Jr. is even considering buying pieces to make a playoff run speaks volumes.  Of course, from the perspective of an Atlanta fan, these happenings are the equivalent of finding out that Miguel Cabrera is a closet Braves-o-phile and wants to finish his career in Atlanta while taking zero salary.  

As for the Nationals, 2013 was supposed to be their year.  Many a prognosticator tabbed the Nationals as the favorites in the NL East (the author included), and many more picked them to win the World Series.  At this point the Nationals are fighting to finish above .500, and with August rapidly approaching, the surge so many expected to see is looking less and less likely. 

That's not to say it won't happen.  If the Nats offense can get into gear, they become a very dangerous team.  At this point, with two-thirds of the season in the books, the likelihood of that happening is dwindling rapidly.  Coming out of the All-Star break, the Nationals are 0-5.  They've scored 11 runs in five games, and five of those 11 came in one game.  That may seem like an arbitrary point in time, but there's momentum to be gained coming out of the chute red-hot, and conversely, there's momentum to be lost coming out of the chute and landing with a thud, which is basically what the Nationals have done.  Things don't get any easier for them after their series with Pittsburgh either, as they host a Mets team that is probably playing above its' head before traveling to Detroit to face arguably the best team in the AL.  Can't score runs off Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton?  Good luck scoring off Max Scherzer and Justin friggin' Verlander. 

There have been recent whispers about the Nats selling off pieces and shifting their vision towards 2014.  Rafael Soriano could command a king's ransom given the market for relievers right now, but the Nats are unlikely to make a move with so much invested in being successful this season.  There's not really a reason for them to sell right now, and doing so could cause serious damage from a marketing perspective.  Selling now essentially tells Nats fans that it's ok to hang up their Harper jersey and dust off the RG3 jersey.  They're eight games out, but there's still time to make this race interesting and, potentially, sneak into the playoffs.  After all Soriano can still be traded in August, and if the Nats find themselves in the same position a month from now as the one they're in today, selling will not only be easily justified but also a decision of the highest prudence.  With the Redskins season starting, the PR backlash would be mitigated considerably.

That leaves us with the Braves.  The Braves have held the division at arms' length the entire season, and while they've played .500 ball since their 12-1 start, they are in as enviable a position as any team could hope to be at this point in the season.  The division race is far from over, and there's plenty of time for Washington to get its act together, or for Philadelphia to cast some sort of ancient spell that magically puts them in contention. 

Acquiring a bullpen piece and, perhaps, a bench piece to replace the production of Pena is as far as the Braves need to go in order to position themselves for a quality postseason run.  Despite their mediocre road record and the general flimsiness of divisional opponents, the Braves are in the position they're in because they're a good team that has played good baseball, particularly against the NL East, against whom they have a 22-15 record.  Given the strength of the schedule, the inter-league schedule in particular, and the injuries they've had to overcome, one would be remiss in wanting for a better record, or feeling that the results thus far have somehow fallen short of what this team is truly capable of.

It's curious to hear Braves fans complain about this team.  A common sentiment is that this team "isn't fun to watch".  How a team that has a winning record in one-run games, extra-inning games, and overall, not to mention the plethora of come-from-behind victories snatched from the jaws of defeat, could be a chore to watch simply boggles the mind.  This is a good team, folks.  It's a flawed team too, of that there is no doubt.  But if you're one of those that is having trouble enjoying the product put forth by this franchise on a nightly basis, perhaps being a Braves fan isn't for you.  Go be a Nats fan.

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Trade targets

With the trade deadline a little over a week away, rumors are heating up.  The Braves have made no secret about being in the market for a left-handed reliever.  Couple that with Alex Wood's potentially permanent transition into the rotation and one could infer that the chances of a deal occurring appear to be approaching an absolute certainty.

So far, Glen Perkins, Kevin Gregg, and Jesse Crain have been profiled by the author, but their situations have evolved somewhat since those profiles were written.  Glen Perkins is apparently coveted by the Twins, and they have held firm in their stance of keeping him in Minnesota.  Whether that's posturing or the truth is impossible to discern, but at this point he doesn't appear to be available.  Kevin Gregg has come back to earth considerably since his red-hot start, so while his asking price is probably lower, he's not a dominant shutdown-type the Braves need.  Jesse Crain is still on the DL, and will likely make a rehab appearance or two before coming back.  He may be an August trade candidate, but Atlanta does not appear to be a good fit for his services.

So where does that leave us?  ESPN's Jim Bowden passed along some information on Twitter earlier:



Jim Bowden is typically well-informed about this sort of thing, seeing as how he was once a GM.  He likely would not have tweeted specific names without feeling confident about the information.  While there are surely names he is not privy to (or chose not to share for whatever reason), the aforementioned names fall in-line with what many expected to see the Braves chasing.  Let's start by analyzing the first name on the list: Oliver Perez. 

Oliver Perez is most likely to be remembered by Braves fans as a starter for the Mets from 2007-2010.  After struggling mightily toward the end of his Mets career, Perez wandered from the Nationals' AA-affiliate to Seattle's minor league system, eventually landing himself a spot on the major league roster as a setup man/LOOGY.  In so doing, Perez has breathed new life into his career, posting a 2.93 FIP in 33 games in 2012, and a 3.04 FIP in 39 appearances thus far in 2013.  This is mostly attributable to the uptick in his K%, which improved to 33.6% in 2013 from his career average of 23%.  His BB% has fluctuated slightly, his BABIP of .316 doesn't indicate luck on his behalf, and his batted ball rates seem to confirm that, as his LD% sits at ~20%, right at league average. 

Part of Perez's resurgence can be attributed his mastering of a sinker that sits around 92-93 MPH, a pitch he did not begin to throw regularly until 2012.  He compliments it with a hard slider and the occasional changeup.  He is generating more swinging strikes and considerably less contact on balls both in and out of the zone, exactly what one would hope to see from a lefty reliever. 

Perez signed a one-year, $1.5M deal with the Mariners last November, and if he were traded to the Braves, they would be on the hook for ~$500K of that money.  The Braves should be able to acquire him for relatively little cost to the franchise in terms of prospect considerations, and given his performance against a tough AL West division, his skill set should transition well to a weaker NL East.  Acquiring him and putting him in Avilan's role makes a lot of sense. 

(Stats courtesy of FanGraphs)

Monday, July 22, 2013

Mets series preview



After dropping two of three to the White Sox, the Braves travel to Citi Field to begin a four-game set against the fourth-place New York Mets.  Losing two of three to a last place team is never a good thing, obviously, but given the Braves' current injury situation, they should be afforded a modest amount of slack.  Still, a 24-28 record away from Turner Field is a source of frustration, and while the 2013 version of the Mets don't scare anyone short of the Marlins, they have certainly shown an ability to hold their own against the Braves, most recently having taken three of five in Atlanta a few weeks ago.  Not having to face Matt Harvey should ease the anxieties heading into this series, and while Zach Wheeler still looms, he has not looked nearly as dominant lately as he did in his major league debut against Atlanta.

The Mets are 10-6 in July, but they have played their best ball on the road, with a paltry 19-28 record at Citi Field.  It goes without saying, a series win here is crucial, especially when considering the fact that the Phillies and Nationals are starting series against two of the NL's best teams, with the Phillies going up against the Cardinals, and the Nats going up against the Pirates. 

The Pitchers:

Dillon Gee has faced the Braves twice this season.  In his first appearance against the Braves at Citi Field, he was touched up for five earned runs on eight hits while striking out four and walking none.  His second appearance came at Turner Field, and he pitched a much more effective (though far from dominant) eight and a third innings, giving up five hits and two earned runs, striking out six and walking one.  Gee has gone at least six innings in all but one of his starts since his May 25 loss to Atlanta.  His fastball sits in the upper 80s and is complimented by a good curve and changeup.  

Carlos Torres has pitched almost exclusively out of the bullpen this season, but with Shaun Marcum on the DL, he has been thrust into the role of starter.  He has faced Atlanta once this season in a relief appearance on June 19, pitching two and a third innings, striking out four and walking one.  He features a good cutter and mixes in a slider/curve to keep hitters off balance.  Historically, his curve is his most effective pitch.

Jeremy Hefner has been as volatile as any pitcher in the league so far in 2013.  He has faced the Braves once, earning a loss in six-inning, three hit, two run effort on May 24 at Citi Field.  That game marked the tenth consecutive loss for the Mets in games started by Hefner, a streak that would be broken in his next outing against the Yankees.  Though the losses piled up during his starts, much of the blame can be attributed to the lack of run production by the Mets' offense. 

From the beginning of June until his last start on July 19, Hefner posted very good stat lines in his starts, not allowing more than two earned runs in the eight starts during that time span, and going at least five innings in all of them.  That changed during his last outing on July 19 against Philadelphia, a game that saw him allow ten hits and eight earned runs in two innings while striking out three and walking none, causing his ERA to jump over half a run on the season. 

Hefner has come to rely more on his fastball and slider in 2013, as his curve/changeup usage has dropped slightly in favor of the other pitches.  His slider is his best pitch, but his fastball and curve are nothing to scoff at.  Hefner's not going to wow anyone, but when he's got a good feel for his offspeed stuff he can be very dangerous, particularly against righties. 

The much-ballyhooed Zach Wheeler gets the start in the final game of the series, and with all the attention garnered by Matt Harvey, Wheeler seems to be flying under the radar somewhat.  Though his performance hasn't been up to the lofty standard set by Harvey, he has looked formidable nevertheless.  His debut came against the Braves, a game that saw him go six innings while allowing four hits, no runs, seven strikeouts and five walks.  Since then, he has gone more than five innings only once in five starts, most recently going four and two-thirds against Philadelphia on July 20, allowing only two earned runs on seven hits, but throwing 106 pitches in the process of doing so. 

Wheeler has leaned heavily on a mid-90s fastball so far in his early career, but the offspeed stuff is good enough to keep hitters honest.  While he doesn't seem to have found his "feel" for those pitches quite yet, it's only a matter of time before he does.  The Paulding County native has all the tools at his disposal to be really, really good for a long time. 

Series matchups:

Tonight, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Julio Teheran v. Dillon Gee

Tuesday, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Kris Medlen v. Carlos Torres

Wednesday, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Tim Hudson v. Jeremy Hefner

Thursday, 12:10 (local broadcast)

Alex Wood v. Zach Wheeler

Lineup for tonight's game:

Simmons (sigh)
Heyward
J Upton
Freeman
McCann
Gattis
Uggla
Johnson

*Dave O'Brien reports that BJ Upton will run today for the first time since his injury, but he will not return from the DL this weekend when he's eligible.  A rehab assignment is almost certainly in order.*

*ESPN reports that Paul Maholm has been placed on the 15-day DL*

(Stats and images courtesy of ESPN, FanGraphs, and ESPN Hit Tracker)

Sunday, July 21, 2013

Scatterbrained Sunday

Paul Maholm

Paul Maholm left yesterday's start with a sprained left wrist.  It's hard to say whether or not the wrist has played a role in his diminished performance recently, but nevertheless, Maholm's FIP has risen steadily since the beginning of the season.  Conversely his Ks/9 have fallen, his BB/9 are up, and while he may be experiencing some bad luck on balls in play, his LD% in the month of July is a staggering 31%, more than 50% above league-average.

It's hard to say what the next step will be for Maholm.  He either goes back into the rotation, goes to the bullpen, or gets traded.  If the reports about Alex Wood transitioning into the rotation are true, Maholm may lose his spot.  The Braves could opt to put him in the bullpen, a role he has never officially held as a major leaguer.  This could be a prudent move, as it would theoretically prevent Atlanta from having to trade for a southpaw to compliment Avilan.  A trade seems unlikely, especially considering that his injury comes ten days before the deadline, but the possibility is probably much higher now than it was a few weeks ago.

Maholm's next scheduled start is Thursday at Citi Field against the Mets.  While the team is saying the injury isn't severe enough to keep him from his next start, don't be surprised to see either Brandon Beachy or Alex Wood get the start.  This time next week, the circumstances surrounding Maholm should be much clearer, but until then, we're relegated to conjecture.  

Alex Wood

To say Alex Wood has been on the fast track this season would be an understatement.  Barely a year removed from UGA, Wood finds himself on the verge of starting for a playoff contender.  Though his body of work screams "small sample size", his performance to this point has been very impressive.  Talking Chop's Ben Duronio wrote an excellent assessment of Wood and made a case for him to move into the rotation, an article that is worthy of a read.  Wood was a likely candidate for the rotation in 2014 anyway, but the fact that the Braves think highly enough of him to give him a chance in the heat of a playoff run says a lot about what they think of his ability.  In other words, if one reads between the lines, this move shouldn't be considered a knock on Maholm's performance so much as an acknowledgement of Wood's potential.

If Wood does indeed move into the rotation, it follows that the likelihood of a trade being made for a LH reliever increases exponentially, assuming Maholm doesn't fill that spot.

Jason Heyward

Dave O'Brien reports that Jason Heyward will play CF until BJ Upton returns from the DL, tentatively scheduled for July 28.  This is an excellent move not only because Heyward is perfectly capable of manning CF, but it ensures Gattis a spot in the lineup in the meantime.  This seemed like a common sense move, and it's nice to see Fredi on board with it. 

The Trade Deadline

The Braves will almost certainly make at least one move between now and July 31, with a LH reliever being at the top of Frank Wren's shopping list.  MLB Trade Rumors suggests Joey Terdoslavich could be trade bait, a suggestion that seems reasonable as the only positions he plays (OF, 1B) are ones manned by players he has no chance of unseating. 

Members of the national media have suggested the Braves could go after an "ace" starting pitcher, or a third base compliment to Chris Johnson.  The first of these seems highly unlikely, not only because the pitching is strong, but also because the Braves' front office isn't known for mortgaging the future to win now.  As for the backup infielder, the loss of Ramiro Pena seems to necessitate exploring the market.  Paul Janish's glove, as good as it is, does not make up for his lack of offense.  Pastornicky could be a candidate to fill this role, provided his glove work has improved since spring training.  In retrospect, the trade of Juan Francisco looms large here, as he would be an ideal candidate for this spot.

This team has very few holes, and while all would be addressed in an ideal world, the reality is that the Braves are not in a position to trade away prospects, nor are they in a position to take on loads of new salary.  But alas, this assumption is made while operating with asymmetrical information.  For all we know, we could wake up Friday morning with Manny Ramirez having taken Reed Johnson's place on the bench.  Such is the beauty of the July trade deadline.

(Stats and Info courtesy of FanGraphs, Talking Chop, and MLB Trade Rumors)

Thursday, July 18, 2013

Looking ahead: pitching

The 2013 version of the Braves pitching staff has played a crucial role in the team's ascent to a 54-win first half.  All the peripherals point to sustained dominance over the course of the second half.  Make no mistake: the position the team finds itself in is nothing short of a luxury.  The Braves have used six starters through the first 95 games, and will use a seventh at some point when Beachy is able to return.  Getting a guy like Beachy added to the rotation mid-season is essentially the equivalent of the Braves trading for a top-end starter and a top-end reliever, as the person Beachy replaces will likely find themselves pitching high-leverage innings out of the bullpen.

The rumor mill has been very active with regard to the Braves rotation.  Some have speculated that Tim Hudson will be moved, but that seems unlikely, as he wouldn't fetch much return and can help this team win in 2013.  Not only that, but what little trade value he had has been diminished by a shaky performance thus far.  Others say Kris Medlen or Beachy himself will pitch out of the pen, scenarios that seem to be the most plausible.  A recent musing put forth by Mark Bowman states that Alex Wood may be a candidate to join the rotation.  This seems like a curious decision, but Bowman is very tuned in with the team, so there's a good chance of fire with this smoke.  Given the information available to assess the situation, this move seems a little strange.  After all the starters have performed very well, and replacing the weakest link with a proven starter like Beachy makes sense, a scenario will almost certainly come to fruition.  Replacing the second-weakest link with a 2012 draft pick that has one major league start doesn't seem to be as safe a bet, not because Wood isn't a good pitcher, but because he has little experience, and his value would likely only be marginally better than his predecessor if we're being rational about expectation levels.  This is an issue many in Braves Country will be watching very closely.  Were it anyone other than Bowman or another media figure with similar standing, the author would look upon the notion with severe incredulity.

The bullpen will likely look different two weeks from now.  In addition to the potential insertion of Medlen/Beachy/player X, the Braves have been scouring the trade market for a left-handed reliever.  Glen Perkins seems to be the top choice, but if Minnesota's recent posturing is any indication, he will remain with the Twins.  According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Cubs' James Russell and Brewers' Mike Gonzalez are also high on the Braves' wish list, but they form only a portion of an extensive (and underwhelming) list of lefty relievers who could be made available for trade.  At this point, it seems clear that it's not so much a matter of if Atlanta will make a move, but when

If the emergence of guys like Minor, Beachy, Medlen, Kimbrel, and Teheran tells us anything, it's that there's little reason to question the rationale of the Atlanta's organizational pitching orthodoxy. 

Here's a ranking of the starters and relievers as the author views them, according to expectation levels going forward

Starters:

Minor
Medlen
Teheran
(big gap)
Beachy
Hudson
Maholm

Relievers:

Kimbrel
Walden
(huge gap)
Wood
Carpenter/Avilan
Ayala
Varvaro

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Looking ahead: offense

The Braves offense has seemed most sporadic thus far in 2013, but probably not to the extent that many would like to believe.  The team wRC+ has fluctuated from 109 in April, to 101 in both May and June, to 111 so far in July, good for a 105 team wRC+ on the season which ranks 7th in MLB and 2nd in the NL to the Cardinals.  The team is also 10th in wOBA, 6th in ISO, 8th in OBP, 4th in BB%, 10th in wRAA, and perhaps most interestingly, 2nd in HR/FB% at 13.7%.  The MLB-leading Orioles rank 1st at 14.1%, and it should be considered moderately impressive that anyone is even close to them considering their lineup and home park factors.

Consider as well that BJ, Heyward, McCann, Freeman, Uggla, and Justin have all at one time or another been slumping badly or on the DL.  That's not to mention Simmons' poor performance at the plate.  Much of the issue has been mitigated by a bench that could be the best in baseball.  Setting the minimum amount of PAs at 75 (in other words, Schafer/Francisco/Gattis/Laird/Pena/Johnson), the group averages a wRC+ of 118, a wOBA of .341, an OBP of .339 and an ISO of .170.  Based on those stats alone, the level of production is essentially akin to a level above Heyward but below Justin spread across 746 PAs, nearly double the 400 that team-leader Andrelton Simmons has accumulated.

If we act under the assumption that the Braves "true talent level" is a wRC+ of ~105, with a standard deviation of ~5 either way, one should feel confident in Atlanta's ability to hold their division lead throughout the remaining 67 games.  Remember, wRC+ is an index statistic, meaning that 100 is league-average, and a point fluctuation either way is 1% (+/-) above or below league-average.  For the season, the team wRC+ is 105, ie the offense has been 5% more productive than league-average.   The Nationals season-average for wRC+ is 88, meaning their offense has performed 12% below league-average.

As has been written about previously, the team K% has fallen month-over-month since April, a trend that seems to go unnoticed when the topic of the Braves' offense has come up in media circles.  Ostensibly this could be an indication that "productive outs" have increased, and anecdotal evidence seems to confirm that, but alas, there is no stat available to track them due to their normative nature.  For those of us that watch most every game, it is more apparent than to those who simply check a box score or watch Sportscenter.  Media outlets that espouse such nonsensical glossing-over of meaningful data points and events are unworthy of the first ear.  The Braves most consistent offensive games are ahead of them, not behind.  The recent performance is probably a good indication of what it will look like.  That's something to be excited about. 

(Stats via FanGraphs)

Monday, July 15, 2013

The First Half

The All-Star break is here, and to the surprise of everyone, the Braves find themselves the envy of the baseball landscape with a six-game lead over the second place Nationals, and a half-game more on the confusing saga that is the post-Pat Gillick Phillies.  No sane person could have predicted this would happen, and in the spirit of that notion, Braves country should be deliriously happy with this team's performance and success so far. 

In light of the circumstances, the season's first half could not have gone much better for the Braves.  Keep in mind, at various points this season, this team has gone without Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward, and Brian McCann for weeks at a time.  Brandon Beachy hasn't thrown a pitch at Turner Field.  Evan Gattis missed most of June.  This doesn't even touch the bullpen and bench, not to mention the CURSE OF SAM HOLBROOK so plainly evident in the Reds' series.  This team has been hit hard by injuries, yet has still managed to go 54-41 in 95 games, keeping every team in the division at bay for the duration with relative ease. 

The injuries to Justin and Heyward don't appear to be serious.  BJ's adductor muscle is worrisome since he's a guy that relies so much on speed in his game, but having time to relax at home will surely be very beneficial for him.  Gattis' injury is also worrisome as oblique strains tend to linger, but getting the All-Star break to rest it is a big boost.  The same can be said for Freeman's thumb.  Taken as a whole, and considering the scope of the available information, the extent of the injuries don't seem to indicate a long-run concern.  We can only hope that remains the case.

Much has been made about the offense.  The media chorus echoes these sentiments loudly and frequently.  Yes, they do strikeout a lot.  No, the event of a strikeout isn't necessarily any worse than a non-strikeout event (oftentimes it's better).  What goes unsaid, however, is the fact that the Braves have regressed slowly but surely towards the mean in team K% since the start of the season, continuously falling month after month.  The offense has been making more "productive outs" lately.  The situational aspect of the game has improved after lacking for so long.  While it's not nearly as much a priority as other aspects of hitting, it's still a factor. 

The Braves have been very fortunate as far as pitcher health is concerned.  During the offensive swoon, the starting pitching kept this team in games, often allowing a thrilling late-inning comeback.  Maholm and Hudson have been somewhat distressing, but Medlen, Minor, and Teheran have been excellent.  The looming addition of Beachy only helps the matter.  The bullpen, while somewhat patchwork, has been a net positive.  Kimbrel hasn't been 2012 Kimbrel, but he's still one of the game's best closers, so some slack is advised. 

With 67 games left on the schedule, the pressure is on Washington and Philadelphia to try and keep up, but neither appear to pose an imminent threat.  While the Phillies seem to be sure bets to fade, Washington is still capable of making a run.  All it takes is a week to take a seven-game lead down to a one-game lead, as many Washington faithful hoped to see this past week.  With that in mind, it's imperative to protect assets with a eye on the season's 2nd half.  In other words, if guys like BJ, Heyward, Freeman, or anyone else need time off to rest injuries, now is the time to do so.  While the games count the same regardless of whether they take place during July or September, a six-game cushion and an easy schedule afford this team the privilege to have that mindset.  The Braves have a six-game road trip to PHI and WAS from August 2-7, and fielding a healthy starting nine would go a long way to crushing the playoff aspirations of the rival teams. 

Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Go Phillies!

Not exactly the easiest thing to say/think/want, but it needs to be said.  Not necessarily because the Phillies have taken the first two from Washington, but because any hope that can be offered to Ruin Tomorrow, Jr's front office is a goal worthy of every Braves fan.

As their record indicates, the 2013 version of the Phillies is a middling, tired horse circling the drain around the glue factory.  Their shortcomings have been, and will continue to be, well-documented.  In a surprisingly weak NL east, their shot at an actual playoff berth is inflated thanks to two really bad teams, one inept but talented team, and one legitimate contender.  Thanks to the new wild-card rules the bar is lowered for them, and with quite a bit of pride, marketing, and costs sunk into this team, the illusion of playoff glory taunts them.  They know it's now or never with this group.

The Phillies' financial obligations are massive beyond 2013.  Chase Utley and Carlos Ruiz will likely walk when their contracts end after the season, Roy Halladay may be done, and their other starters are not considered to be anything more than rotation depth at best.  The Phillies have huge holes to fill, and have to work around ~$105M in previously committed payroll in the process of addressing them. 

The Phillies do have valuable assets, including Utley, Cliff Lee, and Jonathan Papelbon.  Trading them, being realistic about the landscape, and making a decision based on the future instead of the past is the prudent, savvy thing to do.  Keeping them and hoping that things will magically come together is the stuff of Disney movies. 

It is in the best interests of the Braves that the Phillies sacrifice their future in favor of present consumption.  Doing so only delays the inevitable day of reckoning, further allowing Frank Wren and Co. to put more daylight between themselves and a franchise with considerably more spending power.  The beauty of the Braves' financial situation is that it essentially forces efficiency, seeming to live at the point of the curve where there's just enough money to keep one hungry without letting them become complacent.  The returns past that point are rapidly diminishing in many cases, with the Phillies, Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs and White Sox standing as perfect examples.

It won't always be the case that the Phillies are deficient in the aforementioned areas, but as long as they are, the Braves need to do everything they can to widen the gap between the franchises, even if that means rooting for them.

Dan Uggla's contacts

Much has been made of Dan Uggla's performance since his first season as a Brave.  To say it has been a disappointment is probably an understatement, but there's no need to beat a dead horse.  During spring training doctors told Uggla he was suffering from astigmatism and promptly prescribed him contact lenses.  In classic male fashion, Uggla ditched the lenses after only a few days of use and began this season without them. 

That didn't serve Uggla very well, and his first two months did little to inspire any hope that he would provide any value relative to his multi-million dollar contract, of which he still has two more years.  Finally on June 20, Uggla buckled under the pressure of his performance, or lack thereof, and decided to get fitted for another set of contact lenses, this time with comfort being the utmost priority. 

Since that day, Uggla has seemingly been an on-base machine, walking quite a bit and hitting for considerable power.  However, his peripheral statistics don't suggest a substantial difference.  His LD% has remained steady at ~20%, roughly league average, and his GB% has actually increased.  He has eight XBHs in those 15 games since June 20, and while his OBP during that span is .330, that's well below the OBP he posted for the entire month of June (.394), meaning that the majority of that good work came before he was fitted for his new lenses.  His strikeouts are down, as are his walks, but his power is up since the aforementioned date, evidenced by a 60-point increase in ISO (.215 season avg v. .274 during the time frame) and 32-point increase in wOBA (.325 season avg v. .357 during the time frame).  Lastly, and perhaps tellingly, his BABIP has ballooned almost 60 points from a season avg of .264, up to .322 during the time in question.  Are we seeing some regression to the mean insofar as his ability to get lucky is concerned?  It seems likely.  His .370 BABIP during June far eclipsed the first two months of the season, during which his BABIP hovered in the .220s.  Uggla's career BABIP is .291, and his BABIP as a Brave (not including 2013) is .268, leading one to believe that the numbers posted so far this season are probably outliers. 

When dealing with arbitrary beginning and end-points, a grain of salt is generally recommended.  This case is no different.  It's impossible to say, through 15 games, what kind of impact the contacts have had on Uggla's performance, and that's assuming that we're even aware of all the variables in play (hint: we're not).  Come September, if this moment is looked upon as a turning point in his season, well, that's great.  Given the data available now, that doesn't appear to be the case.

Quite frankly, the 2013 version of Uggla is probably the most productive version we've seen yet.  In 2011, it was all power and a weak OBP.  In 2012, the OBP was there, but the power was severely diminished.  So far in 2013, he seems to be striking a productive balance between the two.  Is that because of the contacts?  Time will tell.

Monday, July 8, 2013

Marlins series preview



The Braves begin the 2nd half of their road trip tonight in Miami, a place they have fared well over the past couple years, including a sweep of the Marlins earlier this season.  Having lost two of three to the Phillies the Braves not only squandered an opportunity to deliver a knockout blow to the Fighting Cholly Manuel's, but now also find themselves only four games ahead of Washington who swept the flailing Padres with relative ease over the weekend.

Both Atlanta and Washington have seven games left before the All-Star break.  Atlanta has three in Miami before coming home for four against a tough Cincinnati team.  Washington has four in Philadelphia before finishing with three in Miami.  Theoretically, Washington should win both series, as they are the more talented club and have been playing better ball recently.  For Atlanta, sweeping this series against the Marlins before coming back home to face a Cincinnati team that is probably equal to them in terms of overall talent is absolutely essential.  There's a mental edge that comes with taking a four or five-game lead into the All-Star break, but that edge is diminished if the lead is one or two-games, especially if most of that deficit was made up in the final week of the first half.

As previously stated, this series is a must-win for the Braves.  There's really no reason to ever lose to the Marlins, especially now that Ricky Nolasco plays for the Dodgers.  The Braves do catch the Marlins at the bottom of their rotation, missing Jose Fernandez again as well as the unheralded Nate Eovaldi.  Anything short of a sweep here puts the Braves in a bad position going into the first half's final series. 

Series matchups:

Tonight, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Mike Minor v. Kevin Slowey

Tuesday, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Julio Teheran v. Henderson Alvarez

Wednesday, 12:40 (local broadcast/MLB network)

Paul Maholm v. Jacob Turner

Tonight's lineup:

Simmons (sigh)
Heyward
J Upton
Freeman
McCann
Uggla
BJ
Johnson

Sunday, July 7, 2013

Freeman v. Puig

In any other year, Freddie Freeman would likely be a shoo-in for a spot on the All-Star team.  He has been the most consistent run producer in the Atlanta lineup since the start of the season, but he has been somewhat overshadowed by media coverage on players like Upton and Gattis.  Playing in the same league as Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt, Allen Craig, and Adrian Gonzalez doesn't help his case either.  With the All-Star rosters nearly finalized, Freeman finds himself in an American Idol-style vote-off for the final spot.  None of the other four names in the pool are particularly exciting except for one: Yasiel Puig. 

Freeman's production has been spread out through most of the season, sans the two week stretch he spent on the DL.  Puig's has come over the course of one month.  It could be argued, and rightfully so, that Freeman is more deserving of the final spot, but that's not what this game is about.  The game is a popularity contest, pure and simple. 

When thinking about potential advantages from choosing one player or the other, one must ask the question: does his presence give the NL an edge greater than it would have if Puig were there in his place?  Probably not.  That's no slight against Freeman, but it's important to keep the context of this game in mind when thinking through this issue.  

In spite of all marketing and fanfare that says otherwise, the All-Star game is not a showcase of the game's best players.  Necessitating that each team send a representative automatically creates the inefficiencies necessary to ensure this fact, and the fact that uninformed fans play such a huge role in determining starters goes to further ensure the irrationality.  Thanks to Bud Selig, the All-Star game now carries significant weight insofar as it determines home-field advantage during the World Series, a reactionary policy that has proved polarizing since it's inception in 2003.

Now, we have no other choice than to accept the fact that the game carries the weight that it does, regardless of our opinions about whether or not it should.  And because the best players aren't necessarily going to be present thanks to the aforementioned reasons, fans must decide what's more important: seeing their favorite players on the team, or putting the team in the best position to win for the sake of the greater good.  As a fan of a team with playoff aspirations, one should have a strong interest in seeing "their league" win.  Assuming that same fan is rational, they must set aside perceived obligations to myopically vote for their entire team to play in the All-Star game.

As social media has evolved, MLB has tailored the All-Star game to capitalize upon the technological advancement.  It is chasing a youthful and tech-savvy demographic in order to maximize its' profits, and there's nothing wrong with that.  That demographic spans a spectrum from the nerdiest nerd to the most casual, carefree observer.  There's a good chance that both sides of that spectrum are familiar with Puig, be it from watching him in a game, on Sportscenter, or hearing tales of his exploits from other fans.  Puig is afforded that prestige because he plays in one of the world's largest media markets, on a team with a massive fan base with incredibly high, and perhaps unrealistic, expectations.  That in and of itself gives him a lead that is likely insurmountable.  Freeman may be the more deserving of the two, but as usual, circumstances play a crucial role in determining outcomes.  Under these circumstances, Puig will be tough to overcome. 

Friday, July 5, 2013

Phillies series preview



After a disappointing series loss to the Marlins, the Braves begin a three-game series tonight against the Philadelphia Phillies, marking only the second series between the teams so far in 2013 and the first trip Atlanta has made to Citizens Bank Park this season.

After a few seasons of dominating the NL east, 2013 has been a harsh reality check for Phillies' fans that believed the team's core had one more run in them.  They have been as inefficient financially as any franchise in the game the past few years, there's not much in the way of relief coming from the minor leagues, and winning in this division won't get any easier considering the youth and savvy of Atlanta and Washington.  Ruben Amaro Jr, or Ruin Tomorrow Jr as he has become so affectionately known to some, has indicated to the media that he's proud of the Phillies' desire to buck the analytic trend that has overcome baseball since the turn of the century.  In doing so, he's losing ground every single day that he, and the front office/ownership as a whole, refuse to acknowledge and make use of information and data.  In the contemporary baseball landscape, leveraging statistical and abstract analytic abilities are paramount to success.  How someone in his position could either a) fail to recognize that, or b) recognize it and ignore it, is utterly astounding.  Every team in this division is better off the longer Amaro stays in his position in Philadelphia, because if they ever decide to get someone that actually knows what they're doing, they could be a very dangerous team for a very long time.

There is a decent chance that this series will be the last time the Braves face Chase Utley and Jonathan Papelbon as Phillies, and there could be others that are moved (Cliff Lee) depending upon how the next few weeks turn out.  They are 15-17 since June 1 and haven't been a serious factor in any race thus far, sitting 8.5 games out of both the NL east and the wild card.  A series loss to the rival Braves this weekend could prove to be the fatal blow. 

Series matchups:

Tonight, 7:05 (local broadcast)

Paul Maholm v. Cliff Lee

Saturday, 7:15 (FOX broadcast)

Tim Hudson v. Kyle Kendrick

Sunday, 1:35 (local broadcast)

Kris Medlen v. Jonathan Pettibone

Lineup:

Simmons (sigh)
Heyward
J Upton
Freeman
Johnson
Uggla
BJ
Laird

(Park overlay courtesy of Hit Tracker Online)

Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Does Jesse Crain make sense as a future Brave?

Jesse Crain has quietly been putting up solid numbers for the White Sox over the past few seasons, and the savvier element of their fan base probably knew before the season started that he may not finish his contract in Chicago.  The White Sox find themselves in the cellar of the AL central, and recently they became one of MLB's first teams to openly declare themselves sellers.  As such, Jesse Crain has become one of their most valuable commodities, and ostensibly he could be an answer to the Braves' issue of bullpen depth. 

Jesse Crain is a righty, dependent upon a fastball that averages 94 mph complimented by a slider and curve.  He has used the curve more this season than in any season past, but it is his least effective offering.  His splits are noticeably better against RHH, particularly with respect to his K/BB (an even 7 against RHH v. 2.57 against LHH).  He does, however, induce a fair amount of grounders against lefties.  While his FIP against RHH is a microscopic .90, it's still a very respectable 2.21 against LHH, so it's not as if he can't get them out.

One of his greatest strengths is his LOB%, as evidenced by the fact that he has stranded 86% of runners on-base in 2013.  Relative to the Braves, that mark would be good for 2nd on the team, behind Craig Kimbrel's ridiculous 97% mark that is good for 4th in MLB.  Crain's strand rate is not an aberration as he has consistently been near that number since the 2011 season.  He also has yet to surrender a HR, and while he's more a flyball-type pitcher, the Braves strong OF defense would theoretically help play to his strengths.

This season marks a walk-year for Crain, whose contract pays him $4.5M.  If the Braves were to trade for him, they'd be on the hook for ~$2M of that, certainly an affordable number.  There are a couple of things working against a trade like this taking place, however.  First, White Sox GM Rick Hahn has made it no secret that his franchise is in full-sell mode, so it's safe to assume a bevy of teams have already inquired about Crain and what it would take to get him.  There's still a few weeks between now and the trade deadline, and many teams have considerably more marginal benefit to gain from adding a player like Crain to their roster.  With the Braves bullpen being the best in baseball, the marginal value of a guy like Crain is minimal relative to these other franchises.  The Braves aren't in a position of desperation with regard to acquiring a reliever, so if the price gets too high, they would almost certainly go another direction.  Also, while Crain's numbers against LHH are good, better than average even, he's still not really a left-handed "specialist", and that's really what Atlanta needs.  Sure, he could do the job, and it would be nice to have him as a 7th-inning option, but the Braves have a very specific need in this area, and all things considered, he may not be the best fit. 

In summation, Jesse Crain would be a definitive upgrade for the Braves bullpen.  Coupled with the addition of Beachy, he could prove pivotal in taking an A bullpen and making it into an A+ bullpen. 

And of course, as soon as I get done writing this, I find out that Jesse Crain was just put on the 15-day DL with a right shoulder sprain.  That's not going to be good for his trade value. 

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Marlins series preview/Gattis & Martinez update

Tonight begins a three-game set against the lowly Miami Marlins, a franchise that has seen better days.  The Marlins are on pace to lose 102 games this season, the second highest total in franchise history behind the infamous 1998 "Fire Sale" team that managed to lose 108 games despite winning the World Series the previous season. 

There are only two reasons to watch the Marlins, and their names are Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez.  Stanton isn't putting up the obscene numbers he posted in 2012, but he remains one of baseball's most coveted corner outfielders.  The consensus seems to be that he will be traded at some point, be it during this season (unlikely) or before next season (more likely).  Fernandez has been dominant, despite not having pitched more than 150 innings above A-ball in Miami's minor league system.  The Cuban-born righty has paired with Ricky Nolasco to form a solid 1-2 punch at the top of the Miami rotation.  Fortunately for the Braves, he will not pitch in this series, and unless the rotation is shuffled, they won't see him when they travel to Miami next week either. 

The Marlins have played good baseball of late, finishing June 15-10, the best record of any NL east squad, winning series against St. Louis, San Francisco, and San Diego in the process.  They have faced the Braves only three times in 2013, getting swept at home in the midst of Atlanta's hot start to the season.  The Braves have a 17-4 record against Miami since the start of the 2012 season, easily their best record against any NL east rival.

Although the team has been beleaguered with bad press recently, that's certainly nothing new to the much-maligned ownership.  Jeffrey Loria has been the target of copious amounts of criticism and much of it is well-deserved.  However, the franchise has shown time and time again that it is capable of pulling itself up by its' boot straps and defying the odds, usually by way of talent development.  Although 2013 is an obvious punt for them in terms of fielding a competitive team, there is talent in their minor league system, and they've already shown a propensity to buck baseball orthodoxy by playing these guys at the major league level, service time and financial considerations be damned.  Future editions of this team promise to be more dangerous than this one, so let's enjoy their relative ineptitude while we can.  

Series matchups:

Tonight, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Tom Koehler v. Kris Medlen

Wednesday, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Ricky Nolasco v. Mike Minor

Thursday, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Henderson Alvarez v. Julio Teheran

Tonight's lineup:

Simmons (sigh)
Heyward
J Upton
Freeman
McCann
Uggla
BJ
Johnson

Lastly, two quick notes on injured Braves.  According to Dave O'Brien, Evan Gattis still has not been cleared for baseball activities.  It's looking more likely that he may not return until after the ASB.  Also, Cristhian Martinez's shoulder is still bothering him, and he is being examined by team doctors today.  That's not good. 

Monday, July 1, 2013

BJ Upton's monster June

The name "BJ Upton" has been synonymous with "mediocrity" amongst many a Braves fan, some of whom are all to eager to trade him, send him down to the minors, ask him nicely to retire, or execute any other number of foresight-lacking scenarios that involve him play somewhere (anywhere) else. 

It has been a month since Fredi Gonzalez made some rather pointed comments about Upton's performance.  Some considered the comments unbecoming of an Atlanta manager, others found the bracing, frank nature of the comments refreshing.  While we aren't privy to BJ's thoughts on the situation, we do know one thing: his performance has improved dramatically since the comments were made.

While it's impossible to measure to what degree the comments themselves played a role in his resurgence, it's safe to say that he would have pulled himself out of the rut regardless.  Rarely do players build an entire statistical foundation for performance throughout their careers only to nosedive into pumpkin status without warning.  BJ Upton's career has certainly fallen short of the lofty expectations heaped upon him in his younger days, but he has been an above-average, occasional All-Star level performer since 2007.

Through the first two months of the season, Upton's strikeout rate was ~36%, his walk rate was ~9%, and his OPS was a paltry .471.  He was worth -13.7 runs!  Negative 13.7!  Predicting daily performance was easy: a couple strikeouts, an infield pop-up, and a disgraceful ground ball unfit to be fielded by anyone.  Boos rained down from the Turner Field stands.  This is Atlanta, jewel of the south, the home of southern hospitality.  A player needs to do something pretty egregious to get booed here.  It was hard to watch.

June has seen him come to life at the plate.  He is striking out less (~24%), walking more (~17%), and hitting for more power.  His June OPS stands at .812, largely due to his ability to get on-base, but also due to an ISO increase of over 100 points.  He's also squaring up the ball more effectively, increasing his LD% to ~21%, which is slightly high for him relative to his career performance to date.  His infield-fly percentage fallen in-line with his career average (~10%), and his June BABIP is not indicative of a player that has gotten lucky (.281).  In fact, one could argue that he has been slightly unlucky during this time period, as his speed lends itself to being able to beat out grounders, of which he hits plenty. 

If BJ Upton can maintain a level of production even close to what he put out in June, the Braves will need to seriously consider moving him up in the lineup to get him more at-bats.  Getting his speed on the bases in front of Heyward, Freeman, and his brother Justin could add a dynamic element to this Braves offense that Andrelton Simmons, bless his heart, just hasn't provided.  Now the only question is: how long will it take Fredi Gonzalez to realize Upton (or Heyward) makes more sense at the top of the lineup? 

Unless Fredi is planning on calling Andrelton out in the media.  Touché, Fredi.

Backwards and forwards

The Braves put an exclamation point on their first half sweeping the Diamondbacks in a series that marked the midpoint of the season.  Improving their home record to an MLB best 28-11, the series sweep was a much needed reprieve from their mediocre June performance. 

The Braves will enjoy a day off before starting a three-game set against baseball's worst team, the Miami Marlins, then travel to Philadelphia for three, Miami for three, and finally come back home to host Cincinnati for four games leading up to the MLB All-Star break.  Traditionally, the ASB marks the midpoint of the season, but the Braves will have already played 95 games by this point, nearly 60% of their entire schedule. 

Before we close the book on June, let's look at the good and the bad.  The pitching staff did a great job keeping games close, Julio Teheran and Kris Medlen in particular.  The top-end of the bullpen performed very well.  Jason Heyward, BJ Upton, and Dan Uggla rebounded from their slow starts while Freddie Freeman continued to stake his claim as the team's most consistent contributor at the plate.

Unfortunately Justin Upton seems to have used all his power during the season's first month, a topic FanGraphs' Chis Cwik wrote about today, and Andrelton Simmons on-base issues continued.  Mike Minor and Paul Maholm had some rough starts, and the bullpen's lack of depth is becoming increasingly clear with the recent performances of Gearrin/Varvaro/Avilan.  To compound these issues, the Braves lost Ramiro Pena to shoulder surgery and Evan Gattis to an oblique injury.  Pena's season (and possibly his career in Atlanta) is over, and Gattis has yet to resume baseball activities despite the injury occurring nearly two weeks ago.  The strength of the Braves' bench, so apparent in many games, has taken a huge hit with these losses and Tyler Pastornicky/Paul Janish aren't even close to being able to fill that void. 

Looking ahead the Braves seem sure to make a move for a reliever, and that may be the extent of their dealings.  Many Braves fans seem to think Paul Maholm could or should be traded, but the likelihood of that happening (as small as it was) died off with Beachy's setback.  Given the performance of the starting staff, Beachy coming back into a bullpen role  is starting to look more likely anyway, and for all we know, that could have been the Braves' intentions all along.  Pairing his return with the acquisition of a high-leverage LHP, the bullpen's depth issues could be almost completely nullified.  The positional starters are set, and modifying the lineup to an optimal point would be a good idea, although the potential gains are marginal.  Continuing to hit the team's lowest OBP producer and least powerful bat at the top of the lineup, and giving him the most at-bats, seems like a bad idea.  At this point it seems if this were going to change, it would have changed by now.  The fact that it hasn't is utterly bewildering to the author. 

After the ASB, the Braves will play only 19 games against teams that (as of this writing) have a record over .500, and nine of those games are against the Nationals (the others are split between St. Louis and Cleveland).  28 of those games come against some mixture of the Mets, Marlins, White Sox, Brewers, and Cubs, who along with the Astros form a who's who of baseball's worst teams.  That coupled with a six and a half game lead over a Nationals team that has yet to really play to the level many thought them capable of should ease any anxieties one may have over the second-half direction of this team.