Thursday, June 6, 2013

It's a smidge drafty in here

The MLB draft takes place today, with MLB network scheduled to begin their live draft coverage at 6pm EDT.  The Houston Astros will pick first for the second consecutive year.  The Braves have the 31st pick in the draft, losing their original slot at 21 to the Tampa Bay Rays as compensation for signing free-agent BJ Upton during the winter.  The 31st pick is itself a compensatory pick thanks to the Cleveland Indians' signing of Michael Bourn, but because Cleveland is picking in the top ten of the draft, their slot is protected. Wendy Thurm does an excellent job explaining the draft process on FanGraphs if you care to understand further.

The Braves have done a great job graduating players from their minor league system, a system that was ranked near the top in all of baseball a few short years ago.  Since seeing Heyward, Freeman, Simmons, Kimbrel, Beachy, Medlen, and Minor take spots with the big club, the system has taken a hit, specifically with OF prospects, of whom there are none of note currently in the system.

As it stands right now, the Braves have an undeniably strong minor league system as far as pitching is concerned, and considering how volatile pitchers tend to be, that's not necessarily a bad thing.  In FanGraphs' ranking of the organization's top 15 prospects prior to this season, ten were pitchers, one has since been promoted (Evan Gattis, who ranked at #10) and another, 2B Nick Ahmed, was sent to Arizona as apart of the Upton deal.  Today, the system is fairly barren in terms of high-end hitting talent, and while that doesn't really matter this season, it will matter at some point.  They have focused on drafting up-the-middle positions (C/SS/CF) recently, taking two catchers (one of whom has since moved to LF) and two center fielders in the first ten rounds of last year's draft, and sprinkling some SS/2B-types in the early rounds of the 2010/2011 drafts, but only one of those guys have reached the majors (Andrelton Simmons), and the rest are a couple years away if they make it at all.

Overall, 2013 is considered to be a generally weak draft class.  Just because Atlanta doesn't pick until the end of the first round doesn't mean they won't get any good players, just that they will have to work a little harder than many other teams picking ahead of them.  I fully expect the Braves to rank players based on overall talent level, picking whoever is left atop their board when their time comes.  If it's a pitcher, so be it.  With all the success the Braves have had developing starters and relievers, I'm not arrogant enough to think they should ignore whatever competitive advantage they have just because they haven't popped out another Heyward or Freeman recently.  As we have seen this staff rack up injuries this season, it's easy to take for granted just how difficult it is to call up a player to not only replace a Jonny Venters, but do it well enough so as to mostly nullify any potential loss in effectiveness.  That's what the Braves do, and if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

(Pertinent data mined from FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference)

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