Kevin Gregg is a right-handed reliever that has gone from almost being out of baseball to one of the game's hottest names, closing for a Cubs team that has no chance of contending in the NL central and posting career-best numbers in the process. With July's trade deadline a little over a month away, the interest in his services is heating up, and according to MLBTradeRumors, the Braves are in the mix.
As far as Gregg is concerned, there are a few stats that immediately stand out when digging into his peripherals. First, he has cut his BB% by ~30%, sitting at ~7% in 2013 versus his ~10% career average. His is striking out more batters (26% in 2013 to 18.5% career). He has become a sinker/slider pitcher in 2013, using his four-seam fastball considerably less. With this, one would expect an increase in GB%, but that's not the case. His GB% is down nearly 10%, and his LD% and FB% are up above his career average (up nearly 40% in the case of LD%). He has also been the beneficiary of a high strand rate, leaving 90% of runners on-base, nearly 25% over his career average of 73%. His FIP is among the lowest for pitchers that are supposed to be available for trade, but the other numbers are concerning. It's impossible to quantify exactly how much of this is due to his development of a new pitch (the sinker), but the leading indicators are pointing toward his performance being more smoke-and-mirrors than actual substance.
Gregg's salary info is unavailable, but it's safe to assume he's probably making close to league-minimum, as the Cubs signed him to a minor-league deal before the start of the season. Due to his laudable performance and the fact that he's being paid very little, the Cubs find themselves in an enviable position, essentially having struck gold on a veteran guy that came with almost no risk whatsoever. They will certainly exploit that position and demand a lot in return for Gregg, especially considering how weak the reliever market is in 2013.
The Braves have dealt with Chicago before, most recently during the Vizcaino-Maholm/Johnson deal, but when considering what the Braves are ostensibly looking for in a relief pitcher, Kevin Gregg doesn't seem to be a good fit.
(Stats via FanGraphs)
Thursday, June 27, 2013
Wednesday, June 26, 2013
Why Bill Shanks is wrong
Bill Shanks is a writer for the Macon Telegraph, the self-appointed news source of Middle Georgia. Yesterday he posted an article comparing the career paths of Jason Heyward and Jeff Francouer, calling the similarities "striking" and generally shooting from the hip with his feared adjective revolver.
The unfortunate fact about this event is that Bill Shanks is read regularly by a large swath of people, people that rely on him to provide objective, sound, reasoned assessment of the team they love. Sure, they may have other options (the internet), but many of them are willing to take him at his word. Maybe it's because they follow the team casually, or maybe it's because they're ensconced in their opinions and enjoy having them reinforced. Regardless, it is words like those of Shanks' that lead people astray from the reality of this situation: Jason Heyward and Jeff Francoeur couldn't be more different. For him to imply that they are is an insult to the intellectual capacity of his readers.
Let's clear some of the obvious misconceptions. First, Heyward does not have a "rocket" arm. It is average, at best. He is, however, an infinitely better fielder than Francoeur, whose defense peaked in 2007 and has trailed off ever since.
In 2007, Francoeur's best season of his entire career, Francoeur's WAR-value was closer to Heyward's value in 2011 (Heyward's worst season) than it was in Heyward's best (2012). Jeff Francoeur, at his holistic peak, is only worth 1.5 more wins than Jason Heyward at his lowest point.
Francoeur's OBP and OPS fell from 2006-2008. His LD% stayed rather constant, deviating between ~18% and ~20%. His GB% increased ~6% during this time, and his FB% decreased at approximately the same rate. Perhaps most tellingly, runs vales on all pitches declined rapidly over this span of time. To put it simply, he was never a good slider/curve hitter, and his only saving grace was his ability against fastballs. Once he lost that in 2008, any hope of him being an above-average, "Dale Murphy"-type of player was all but out the window.
As for Heyward, his OBP and OPS have taken a hit this year due to his rough start. His walks are down, but so are his strikeouts. He's hitting more line-drives (~6% over his career avg), and his FB% is in-line with his career numbers, meaning he's hitting fewer groundballs. He's also hitting fewer infield-flys, as his percentage is down to 4.8% in 2013, well below his career number of 7.5%. He's not hitting fastballs as well as he did during his rookie season, and his work against lefties leaves a lot to be desired, but he has always been a good offspeed hitter, consistent with what one would expect from a guy with his plate discipline.
None of this is to say that Jason Heyward is a blameless future Hall-of-Famer that can do no wrong. As previously stated, his work against LHP needs to improve, lest Fredi feels compelled to platoon with Reed Johnson. But it's worth keeping in mind that Heyward is just 23, and given the level of ability he has displayed in his young career, a degree of patience is in order. Believing he'll follow the path of a player, whose career for all intents and purposes is finished, is assuming too much too soon. Attempting to pass it off as fact is silliness of the highest order.
The unfortunate fact about this event is that Bill Shanks is read regularly by a large swath of people, people that rely on him to provide objective, sound, reasoned assessment of the team they love. Sure, they may have other options (the internet), but many of them are willing to take him at his word. Maybe it's because they follow the team casually, or maybe it's because they're ensconced in their opinions and enjoy having them reinforced. Regardless, it is words like those of Shanks' that lead people astray from the reality of this situation: Jason Heyward and Jeff Francoeur couldn't be more different. For him to imply that they are is an insult to the intellectual capacity of his readers.
Let's clear some of the obvious misconceptions. First, Heyward does not have a "rocket" arm. It is average, at best. He is, however, an infinitely better fielder than Francoeur, whose defense peaked in 2007 and has trailed off ever since.
In 2007, Francoeur's best season of his entire career, Francoeur's WAR-value was closer to Heyward's value in 2011 (Heyward's worst season) than it was in Heyward's best (2012). Jeff Francoeur, at his holistic peak, is only worth 1.5 more wins than Jason Heyward at his lowest point.
Francoeur's OBP and OPS fell from 2006-2008. His LD% stayed rather constant, deviating between ~18% and ~20%. His GB% increased ~6% during this time, and his FB% decreased at approximately the same rate. Perhaps most tellingly, runs vales on all pitches declined rapidly over this span of time. To put it simply, he was never a good slider/curve hitter, and his only saving grace was his ability against fastballs. Once he lost that in 2008, any hope of him being an above-average, "Dale Murphy"-type of player was all but out the window.
As for Heyward, his OBP and OPS have taken a hit this year due to his rough start. His walks are down, but so are his strikeouts. He's hitting more line-drives (~6% over his career avg), and his FB% is in-line with his career numbers, meaning he's hitting fewer groundballs. He's also hitting fewer infield-flys, as his percentage is down to 4.8% in 2013, well below his career number of 7.5%. He's not hitting fastballs as well as he did during his rookie season, and his work against lefties leaves a lot to be desired, but he has always been a good offspeed hitter, consistent with what one would expect from a guy with his plate discipline.
None of this is to say that Jason Heyward is a blameless future Hall-of-Famer that can do no wrong. As previously stated, his work against LHP needs to improve, lest Fredi feels compelled to platoon with Reed Johnson. But it's worth keeping in mind that Heyward is just 23, and given the level of ability he has displayed in his young career, a degree of patience is in order. Believing he'll follow the path of a player, whose career for all intents and purposes is finished, is assuming too much too soon. Attempting to pass it off as fact is silliness of the highest order.
Tuesday, June 25, 2013
Royals series preview
The Braves travel to Kansas City tonight to play the Royals in a two-game interleague set isolated between two travel days (yesterday and Thursday). KC's Kauffman Stadium is the only ballpark in MLB that the Atlanta franchise has never played in, so tonight's game will be historic, though it's probably not something we'll feel compelled to tell our grandkids about.
The Royals are slowly clawing their way back into the AL playoff picture, trailing Baltimore and New York by five games for the wild card, and Detroit by six-and-a-half in the AL central. By all accounts, this is a must-win season for GM Dayton Moore's franchise and anything short of an above-.500 finish may well cost him his job. With the expectation level set as high as it was, it may take a playoff appearance to do the trick.
The offense has been a bitter disappointment, and the shine has worn off the much-heralded hitters KC has developed in its' farm system. As a team, they are tied for 13th in the AL in wOBA, 13th in wRC+, 11th in OBP, and dead last in ISO. After a particularly slow start to the season, the Royals demoted their hitting coaches and named Hall of Famer George Brett to the position. Though the early returns from the players themselves have been glowing, there has yet to be any sort of tangible difference in the team's play.
The pitching has been better, and the bullpen has been one of the AL's best in terms of ERA and LOB%, but that hasn't been enough to make up for the lack of offensive output. Offseason acquisition James Shields has been as good as advertised, but one can't help but wonder about what KC gave up to get him. Wil Myers would look great in place of Jeff Franceour in RF, and considering the success they've had with their free-agent signings, there's room to question the rationale of such a deal, especially in light of the dearth of offense put on display so far in 2013.
As bad as the Royals offense has been, they've performed better on the road, so it's nice to catch them at home. This is a series that an Atlanta team playing to its' true talent-level should sweep 75% of the time.
Series matchups:
Tonight, 8:10 (local broadcast)
Kris Medlen v. Ervin Santana
Wednesday, 8:10 (local broadcast)
Mike Minor v. Luis Mendoza
Tonight's lineup (this may be my favorite of Fredi's many lineups so far in 2013):
Schafer
Heyward
J Upton
Freeman
McCann
BJ Upton
Uggla
Johnson
Simmons (HOORAY)
(Stadium overlay courtesy of Hit Tracker Online)
Surveying potential trade candidates
MLBTradeRumors founder Tim Dierkes built a custom FanGraphs leaderboard of potential trade targets for contending teams. Dave Cameron, managing editor of FanGraphs, posted an article about the leaderboard here along with a succinct explanation of what the list means, and its' relative subjectivity due to asymmetrical information between teams and the unwashed masses, otherwise known as us.
As it pertains to the Atlanta Braves, it has been established in this blog and other places that at the very least the team will shop for relief pitching this summer, most likely of the left-handed variety. Using Dierkes' list and deductive reasoning, the author will be profiling a player or two per day or two, whatever life allows. These are in no particular order, and as Dave Cameron hinted at, there's no guarantee that some of these guys are even available in a trade scenario. Nevertheless, spit-ballin' here we come!
Glen Perkins, LHP, Minnesota Twins
Perkins is a name Braves fans should be familiar with. He blew a save on May 21st at Turner Field, falling victim to the explosive nature of Evan Gattis' bat. He has toiled in relative anonymity due to the struggles of the Twins, and his numbers in 2011-2012 weren't anything special, but 2013 is a different story. Here are his numbers to date:
It has been nearly a month (May 28) since he has given up a walk, and nearly a month before that came his previous one (May 8). His strength is strikeouts, as is evidenced by his 12.56 K/9, but the most encouraging stats are in his batted ball peripherals. He throws 68.5% first-pitch strikes, and he is inducing 14.9% swinging strikes, a number that is almost double his career average, but has steadily climbed over the course of the past three years as he has morphed from a serviceable reliever to dominant closer. His contact on balls inside the zone has fallen consistently over his career from a high of 94.3% to 80.9% this year. The guy does what you want late-inning relievers to do: miss bats.
He's a fastball/slider guy, typical of closers, and his four-seam and two-seam fastballs are similar in velocity, hovering between 94-95 MPH. The good news about that is that his velocity hasn't diminished over the years so, at least ostensibly, he's still got plenty left in the tank.
He's more inclined to fly balls and line drives when hitters do make contact, good news for a team with a strong outfield such as the Braves. Batters have a .254 BABIP against Perkins, a number that should improve pitching in front of a Braves defense that is better than Minnesota's.
Perkins is under contract through 2015 ($2.8M in 2013, $3.5M in 2014 and 2015) with a team option for 2016 of $4.5M. It is not common practice for the Braves to take on large contracts for bullpen arms, as their ability to call up guys making league-minimum is more fitting for a club that needs to maximize the efficiency of every dollar spent. As a club that most likely won't contend for another year or two, the Twins will certainly want prospects in return, and GM Terry Ryan has made it no secret that they plan to build around pitching. These barriers may prove tough to circumvent for Atlanta, but in a context-neutral environment, if there's a guy that is anything close to a "perfect fit" for the Braves' bullpen, Glen Perkins is it.
As it pertains to the Atlanta Braves, it has been established in this blog and other places that at the very least the team will shop for relief pitching this summer, most likely of the left-handed variety. Using Dierkes' list and deductive reasoning, the author will be profiling a player or two per day or two, whatever life allows. These are in no particular order, and as Dave Cameron hinted at, there's no guarantee that some of these guys are even available in a trade scenario. Nevertheless, spit-ballin' here we come!
Glen Perkins, LHP, Minnesota Twins
Perkins is a name Braves fans should be familiar with. He blew a save on May 21st at Turner Field, falling victim to the explosive nature of Evan Gattis' bat. He has toiled in relative anonymity due to the struggles of the Twins, and his numbers in 2011-2012 weren't anything special, but 2013 is a different story. Here are his numbers to date:
It has been nearly a month (May 28) since he has given up a walk, and nearly a month before that came his previous one (May 8). His strength is strikeouts, as is evidenced by his 12.56 K/9, but the most encouraging stats are in his batted ball peripherals. He throws 68.5% first-pitch strikes, and he is inducing 14.9% swinging strikes, a number that is almost double his career average, but has steadily climbed over the course of the past three years as he has morphed from a serviceable reliever to dominant closer. His contact on balls inside the zone has fallen consistently over his career from a high of 94.3% to 80.9% this year. The guy does what you want late-inning relievers to do: miss bats.
He's a fastball/slider guy, typical of closers, and his four-seam and two-seam fastballs are similar in velocity, hovering between 94-95 MPH. The good news about that is that his velocity hasn't diminished over the years so, at least ostensibly, he's still got plenty left in the tank.
He's more inclined to fly balls and line drives when hitters do make contact, good news for a team with a strong outfield such as the Braves. Batters have a .254 BABIP against Perkins, a number that should improve pitching in front of a Braves defense that is better than Minnesota's.
Perkins is under contract through 2015 ($2.8M in 2013, $3.5M in 2014 and 2015) with a team option for 2016 of $4.5M. It is not common practice for the Braves to take on large contracts for bullpen arms, as their ability to call up guys making league-minimum is more fitting for a club that needs to maximize the efficiency of every dollar spent. As a club that most likely won't contend for another year or two, the Twins will certainly want prospects in return, and GM Terry Ryan has made it no secret that they plan to build around pitching. These barriers may prove tough to circumvent for Atlanta, but in a context-neutral environment, if there's a guy that is anything close to a "perfect fit" for the Braves' bullpen, Glen Perkins is it.
Monday, June 24, 2013
Offensive team leaders
After starting the season red-hot offensively, the Braves have slowly sunk toward the median of all MLB teams in terms of overall output. Their play for the month of June finds them in the bottom 40% or worse in many metrics, and it's disturbing to think about how much worse their record could be if the pitching wasn't performing up to its' current standards. With that said, here are some leaders in categories of interest on offense (note: players with less than 100 ABs are not considered, so no Laird, Rev, or Reed Johnson).
BB%:
1. Dan Uggla (15.2%)
2. Justin Upton (14.4%)
3. Jordan Schafer (13.2%)
4. Brian McCann (11.1%)
5. BJ Upton (10.5%)
...
last: Andrelton Simmons (5%)
No real surprises here, although Schafer may seem like a surprise. His career BB% is 10.6%, so while he has outperformed that to this point, he's reaching the necessary amount of plate appearances for the stat to stabilize. For a leadoff guy, Simmons' number is extremely low.
wOBA:
1. Jordan Schafer (.384)
2. Evan Gattis (.373)
3. Chris Johnson (.359)
4. Freddie Freeman (.359)
5. Brian McCann (.349)
...
last: BJ Upton (.262)
Jordan Schafer is outperforming his career number (.289) by nearly 100 points, so it's safe to say he won't maintain that level of production throughout the season. However, we are reaching the point where an adjustment of expectations for him may be warranted. No, he's not going to turn into Shin-Soo Choo, but he's clearly better than the proto-Schafer that drew such ire from the Atlanta media a few years ago.
BJ Upton's slow start has doomed his ability to achieve high marks in this category, but as we're seeing, past performance isn't a true indicator of future ability.
ISO:
1. Evan Gattis (.333)
2. Justin Upton (.214)
3. Brian McCann (.213)
4. Dan Uggla (.199)
5. Ramiro Pena (.165)
...
last: Andrelton Simmons (.088)
Again, nothing surpris...wait, PENA? Yes, Ramiro Pena has hit for more power than Heyward, Freeman, Chris Johnson, etc. Yes, it has come in 107 ABs and will almost certainly fall, but let's enjoy it while we can. Sadly, three pitchers have higher ISOs than Simmons (Hudson, Medlen, Minor), and while that's indicative of nothing due to their lack of ABs, it certainly jumps off the page when looking at the stat.
OPS:
1. Evan Gattis (.894)
2. Jordan Schafer (.876)
3. Chris Johnson (.830)
4. Freddie Freeman (.822)
5. Brian McCann (.805)
...
last: BJ Upton (.589)
Schafer's position on this list is primarily due to his high OBP, whereas the inverse is true for Gattis, whose prodigious power has him first on the list. BJ finds himself last on another list, but if his recent performance is any indication, that won't last long.
wRC+
1. Jordan Schafer (147)
2. Evan Gattis (140)
3. Chris Johnson (130)
4. Freddie Freeman (130)
5. Brian McCann (123)
...
last: BJ Upton (63)
None of this should be surprising given the performance of the players listed. Again, Upton should be out of the doghouse if his recent performance keeps up, as he trails Simmons by only 6 points.
BABIP:
1. Jordan Schafer (.418)
2. Chris Johnson (.401)
3. Freddie Freeman (.368)
4. Ramiro Pena (.312)
5. Justin Upton (.289)
...
last: BJ Upton (.230)
This stat gives us some insight as to why Schafer and Johnson rank so highly in so many different categories. Schafer's speed lends itself to a higher BABIP by virtue of the fact that he gets down the line faster and can beat out weak grounders in the infield. Johnson doesn't have that quality, and while he's a good hitter, this number can be expected to fall, along with the other peripheral statistics in which he has performed well. Not to say that he's going to turn into an offensive black hole, just that he has gotten somewhat lucky so far, especially when you consider his LD% rate is right in-line with his career average (23.7% in 2013 v. 23.9%). Freddie Freeman's number may drop some, too, but he's a line-drive hitter, and his LD% has steadily increased over the course of his career. One can probably expect to see his BABIP number somewhere in the neighborhood of .350 at the end of the season.
Coming into the season, it was widely assumed this would be an all-or-nothing offense, and with 11 zero-run efforts on the ledger to go along with a few 10-0-style laughers, that assessment isn't far off. The second half of the season should see the emergence of Heyward, BJ Upton, and McCann as consistent threats (to varying degrees), and if that happens, the second-half version of this list could look very different.
BB%:
1. Dan Uggla (15.2%)
2. Justin Upton (14.4%)
3. Jordan Schafer (13.2%)
4. Brian McCann (11.1%)
5. BJ Upton (10.5%)
...
last: Andrelton Simmons (5%)
No real surprises here, although Schafer may seem like a surprise. His career BB% is 10.6%, so while he has outperformed that to this point, he's reaching the necessary amount of plate appearances for the stat to stabilize. For a leadoff guy, Simmons' number is extremely low.
wOBA:
1. Jordan Schafer (.384)
2. Evan Gattis (.373)
3. Chris Johnson (.359)
4. Freddie Freeman (.359)
5. Brian McCann (.349)
...
last: BJ Upton (.262)
Jordan Schafer is outperforming his career number (.289) by nearly 100 points, so it's safe to say he won't maintain that level of production throughout the season. However, we are reaching the point where an adjustment of expectations for him may be warranted. No, he's not going to turn into Shin-Soo Choo, but he's clearly better than the proto-Schafer that drew such ire from the Atlanta media a few years ago.
BJ Upton's slow start has doomed his ability to achieve high marks in this category, but as we're seeing, past performance isn't a true indicator of future ability.
ISO:
1. Evan Gattis (.333)
2. Justin Upton (.214)
3. Brian McCann (.213)
4. Dan Uggla (.199)
5. Ramiro Pena (.165)
...
last: Andrelton Simmons (.088)
Again, nothing surpris...wait, PENA? Yes, Ramiro Pena has hit for more power than Heyward, Freeman, Chris Johnson, etc. Yes, it has come in 107 ABs and will almost certainly fall, but let's enjoy it while we can. Sadly, three pitchers have higher ISOs than Simmons (Hudson, Medlen, Minor), and while that's indicative of nothing due to their lack of ABs, it certainly jumps off the page when looking at the stat.
OPS:
1. Evan Gattis (.894)
2. Jordan Schafer (.876)
3. Chris Johnson (.830)
4. Freddie Freeman (.822)
5. Brian McCann (.805)
...
last: BJ Upton (.589)
Schafer's position on this list is primarily due to his high OBP, whereas the inverse is true for Gattis, whose prodigious power has him first on the list. BJ finds himself last on another list, but if his recent performance is any indication, that won't last long.
wRC+
1. Jordan Schafer (147)
2. Evan Gattis (140)
3. Chris Johnson (130)
4. Freddie Freeman (130)
5. Brian McCann (123)
...
last: BJ Upton (63)
None of this should be surprising given the performance of the players listed. Again, Upton should be out of the doghouse if his recent performance keeps up, as he trails Simmons by only 6 points.
BABIP:
1. Jordan Schafer (.418)
2. Chris Johnson (.401)
3. Freddie Freeman (.368)
4. Ramiro Pena (.312)
5. Justin Upton (.289)
...
last: BJ Upton (.230)
This stat gives us some insight as to why Schafer and Johnson rank so highly in so many different categories. Schafer's speed lends itself to a higher BABIP by virtue of the fact that he gets down the line faster and can beat out weak grounders in the infield. Johnson doesn't have that quality, and while he's a good hitter, this number can be expected to fall, along with the other peripheral statistics in which he has performed well. Not to say that he's going to turn into an offensive black hole, just that he has gotten somewhat lucky so far, especially when you consider his LD% rate is right in-line with his career average (23.7% in 2013 v. 23.9%). Freddie Freeman's number may drop some, too, but he's a line-drive hitter, and his LD% has steadily increased over the course of his career. One can probably expect to see his BABIP number somewhere in the neighborhood of .350 at the end of the season.
Coming into the season, it was widely assumed this would be an all-or-nothing offense, and with 11 zero-run efforts on the ledger to go along with a few 10-0-style laughers, that assessment isn't far off. The second half of the season should see the emergence of Heyward, BJ Upton, and McCann as consistent threats (to varying degrees), and if that happens, the second-half version of this list could look very different.
Sunday, June 23, 2013
Series recap and a thought about Ks
Much to the chagrin of fantasy owners everywhere, the Braves could only muster seven runs for the entire series against the Brewers, despite facing a battered pitching staff in a park that hemorrhages homers. Peralta and Hand obliged to the Braves' wishes to see who could pop the ball straight up in the air the furthest, posting what will most likely be their best lines of the entire season against Atlanta.
The collective team wOBA was a paltry .262 for the series, skewed by today's .443 effort. Although the team was able to coax eight walks in the first two games, their patience was left wanting with runners on base. It was the first time the Braves had been shutout back-to-back in 2013.
It was reported over the weekend that Ramiro Pena will have his shoulder looked at tomorrow, and that Justin Upton's absence for the past two games was due to a sore hand. Losing Pena is a big deal, as his replacements (Janish and Pastornicky) are inferior as a whole, though Janish may be better defensively and Pastornicky is probably at least his equal offensively. Losing Upton seems like a huge deal based off brand recognition alone, and it certainly hurts, but considering his play during any month that isn't April (as well as that of Schafer), a few days off may not be that bad for him. Looking at his performance and keeping in mind his dizzying array of swings-and-misses, one is compelled to wonder if this isn't an issue that has lingered for a while. If the Braves didn't have a six-game lead in the east, he may be more inclined to play through it, but luckily, they can afford to take him out of the lineup and get him the rest he needs. Justin Upton playing at 100% is crucial to this team's chances of making and succeeding in the playoffs.
There has been a great amount of hand-wringing over the amount of strikeouts the Braves have accumulated and many people point to that statistic as the definitive reason for their struggles offensively. Including today's game, the Braves are striking out 8.77 times per game. During losses, the average number is 9.79, and during wins, it's an even 8. Strikeouts have a run-value of -.301, versus non-strikeouts events having a -.299 run-value. In others words, there's a difference, but it's moot, and certainly not something that can be viewed as the culprit for the Braves' struggles offensively.
The collective team wOBA was a paltry .262 for the series, skewed by today's .443 effort. Although the team was able to coax eight walks in the first two games, their patience was left wanting with runners on base. It was the first time the Braves had been shutout back-to-back in 2013.
It was reported over the weekend that Ramiro Pena will have his shoulder looked at tomorrow, and that Justin Upton's absence for the past two games was due to a sore hand. Losing Pena is a big deal, as his replacements (Janish and Pastornicky) are inferior as a whole, though Janish may be better defensively and Pastornicky is probably at least his equal offensively. Losing Upton seems like a huge deal based off brand recognition alone, and it certainly hurts, but considering his play during any month that isn't April (as well as that of Schafer), a few days off may not be that bad for him. Looking at his performance and keeping in mind his dizzying array of swings-and-misses, one is compelled to wonder if this isn't an issue that has lingered for a while. If the Braves didn't have a six-game lead in the east, he may be more inclined to play through it, but luckily, they can afford to take him out of the lineup and get him the rest he needs. Justin Upton playing at 100% is crucial to this team's chances of making and succeeding in the playoffs.
There has been a great amount of hand-wringing over the amount of strikeouts the Braves have accumulated and many people point to that statistic as the definitive reason for their struggles offensively. Including today's game, the Braves are striking out 8.77 times per game. During losses, the average number is 9.79, and during wins, it's an even 8. Strikeouts have a run-value of -.301, versus non-strikeouts events having a -.299 run-value. In others words, there's a difference, but it's moot, and certainly not something that can be viewed as the culprit for the Braves' struggles offensively.
Friday, June 21, 2013
Simmons can't stay at the top
Andrelton Simmons has been hitting at the top of the lineup for the majority of this season without much success. Among all leadoff men with at least 150 plate appearances, Simmons ranks last in OBP (.258), next to last in OPS (.569, 21 points ahead of Ben Revere), BB/PA (.042), pitches per plate appearance (3.50) and perhaps most tellingly, next to last in runs created (12.7, behind Eric Young Jr, who was dfa'd by the Rockies earlier this week).
His IFFB%, a staggering 18.2%, is the ninth-highest in MLB. He's taking more first-pitch strikes, more pitches in the strike zone (~40% in 2013 to ~36% for his career), and swinging at fewer pitches relative to his career numbers (~44% in 2013 to ~47% for his career). For some hitters with good plate discipline, that's not necessarily a bad thing. In the case of Simmons, who sees fewer pitches per plate appearance than the majority of his peers, it's not doing him any favors. He has only seen a 3-0 count twelve times the entire season. After an 0-1 count, his OBP is .247.
For a guy that is getting more at-bats than anyone on the team, it's curious as to why lack of production hasn't cost him his place in the lineup. A look at his peripheral statistics doesn't offer much hope of him turning it around. Continuing to hit him at the top is putting the team at a disadvantage, however marginal the difference may be.
(Stats via FanGraphs and ESPN)
His IFFB%, a staggering 18.2%, is the ninth-highest in MLB. He's taking more first-pitch strikes, more pitches in the strike zone (~40% in 2013 to ~36% for his career), and swinging at fewer pitches relative to his career numbers (~44% in 2013 to ~47% for his career). For some hitters with good plate discipline, that's not necessarily a bad thing. In the case of Simmons, who sees fewer pitches per plate appearance than the majority of his peers, it's not doing him any favors. He has only seen a 3-0 count twelve times the entire season. After an 0-1 count, his OBP is .247.
For a guy that is getting more at-bats than anyone on the team, it's curious as to why lack of production hasn't cost him his place in the lineup. A look at his peripheral statistics doesn't offer much hope of him turning it around. Continuing to hit him at the top is putting the team at a disadvantage, however marginal the difference may be.
(Stats via FanGraphs and ESPN)
Brewers series preview
Tonight begins a five-game road trip that takes the Braves to Milwaukee and Kansas City. June has seen Atlanta play their most mediocre brand of baseball thus far, with the offense and the defense particularly to blame. This weekend's series offers them an opportunity to make up some ground against a Milwaukee team that is an afterthought in a very strong NL central.
Milwaukee is giving up 1.28 HR/9, good for last in the NL. This weekend's starters, Tom Gorzelanny and Alfredo Figaro, and giving up 1.55 and 1.76, respectively. Their collective HR/FB ratio is 14.3%, worst in MLB. Much of this can be attributed to the dimensions on Miller Park, shown relative to Turner Field here:
As the overlay shows, the dimensions are conducive to hitters having an advantage. Luckily, Teheran, Hudson, and Maholm are all prone to inducing groundballs, so the park effects shouldn't be too severe.
The Braves will miss Milwaukee's "best" pitchers (Gallardo and Lohse), and should be able to take advantage of the recent struggles of Peralta, who has been battered around in the majority of his starts in 2013. Gorzelanny and Figaro are recent bullpen transplants called in to supplement the recent rash of injuries that have claimed other Milwaukee starters.
Another player the Braves will miss is Ryan Braun, the heart and soul of the team and the offense in particular. The Brewers still have offensive weapons, though, with Jean Segura making a case for rookie of the year and Carlos Gomez a likely all-star. Ex-Brave Juan Francisco is likely to see some action during the series as well.
It would be particularly frustrating if the Braves can't get their bats going in this series. The opposing pitching is subpar, and the ballpark is one of the league's most hitter-friendly. A team with World Series aspirations should come in and take two of three, if not sweep the series.
Series matchups:
Friday, 8:10 (local broadcast)
Julio Teheran v. Wily Peralta
Saturday, 4:10 (local broadcast)
Tim Hudson v. Tom Gorzelanny
Sunday, 2:10 (local broadcast)
Paul Maholm v. Alfredo Figaro
**Note-Ramiro Pena has been put on the 15-day DL with a shoulder issue. Paul Janish has been recalled from AAA.
Milwaukee is giving up 1.28 HR/9, good for last in the NL. This weekend's starters, Tom Gorzelanny and Alfredo Figaro, and giving up 1.55 and 1.76, respectively. Their collective HR/FB ratio is 14.3%, worst in MLB. Much of this can be attributed to the dimensions on Miller Park, shown relative to Turner Field here:
As the overlay shows, the dimensions are conducive to hitters having an advantage. Luckily, Teheran, Hudson, and Maholm are all prone to inducing groundballs, so the park effects shouldn't be too severe.
The Braves will miss Milwaukee's "best" pitchers (Gallardo and Lohse), and should be able to take advantage of the recent struggles of Peralta, who has been battered around in the majority of his starts in 2013. Gorzelanny and Figaro are recent bullpen transplants called in to supplement the recent rash of injuries that have claimed other Milwaukee starters.
Another player the Braves will miss is Ryan Braun, the heart and soul of the team and the offense in particular. The Brewers still have offensive weapons, though, with Jean Segura making a case for rookie of the year and Carlos Gomez a likely all-star. Ex-Brave Juan Francisco is likely to see some action during the series as well.
It would be particularly frustrating if the Braves can't get their bats going in this series. The opposing pitching is subpar, and the ballpark is one of the league's most hitter-friendly. A team with World Series aspirations should come in and take two of three, if not sweep the series.
Series matchups:
Friday, 8:10 (local broadcast)
Julio Teheran v. Wily Peralta
Saturday, 4:10 (local broadcast)
Tim Hudson v. Tom Gorzelanny
Sunday, 2:10 (local broadcast)
Paul Maholm v. Alfredo Figaro
**Note-Ramiro Pena has been put on the 15-day DL with a shoulder issue. Paul Janish has been recalled from AAA.
Wednesday, June 19, 2013
Low-leverage relievers in high-leverage situations
With the midpoint of the 2013 season rapidly approaching, one could safely assume that Frank Wren and his staff are in the process of evaluating this team and its' needs. Not necessarily because there are glaring weaknesses that command attention, but because that's what good front offices do.
There has been a normal degree of media speculation about what moves, if any, the Braves can be expected to make with the trade deadline roughly a month away. Most of this talk has centered around the Braves being in the market for a left-handed reliever, a possibility Frank Wren all but confirmed last month to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal.
The market for relief pitching is still developing, and there's still plenty of time for further maturation. However, the dynamic this year is different than in years' past, due to:
a) Teams on the playoff periphery, that may have otherwise opted to trade relief assets, are hanging onto low-cost/controlled players that may help them earn a wild-card berth.
b) The market for relievers, specifically left-handed relievers, is shaping up to be below-average relative to other years.
The demand for left-handed specialists is always high, and this year should be no different. Coupled with the lack of supply, one can expect to see teams pay a premium to acquire these arms, whether that premium is constituted of money, prospects, or some combination thereof. The lack of high-end talent and contractual considerations should ease the market slightly, but in the end, a litany of overpays will almost certainly prevail.
It is under these inauspicious circumstances that we review what the true needs of this bullpen are. Collectively, the first-half performance has been very comparable to last year's first-half. When averaging the stats of everyone with at least ten appearances (Alex Wood was included because he will get there soon enough), we see that strikeouts are almost identical, BABIP is down (likely attributable to Simmons and other defensive-minded moves that Fredi has made in the late innings), HR rate is down over 50%, and strand-rate and groundball rates aren't different enough to matter.
The real issue with this bullpen right now is walks, the main offenders being Avilan, Carpenter, Gearrin, and Wood, all of whom have a BB% over ten percent. Let's remove Alex Wood so as to avoid outliers and skewness. The three remaining pitchers are walking a batter for every 1.4 batters they strike out. Their WHIP is 1.28, their BABIP is .260, and their xFIP is 4.49. In other words, they've been the beneficiaries of some luck, and while having a good defense behind them can help explain some of that, it won't always be the case.
As it stands right now, Luis Avilan is the top lefty out of the pen. He is an average reliever being asked to come into high-leverage situations and perform at the level of 2011-2012 Jonny Venters and Eric O'Flaherty, and it's just not working. With that being said, in light of the available options, he's probably the best choice for that spot given the current construction of the roster.
Cory Gearrin's situation is different. Right now, he's probably fourth on the depth chart for righties. He has not performed well in high-leverage situations, and to make matters worse, he has struggled in the specialty role many had predicted him to be successful in. Right-handed hitters have a .387 OBP against him this year, and his GB% against righties has dropped from his career average of ~56% to ~45% in 2013. He's not going to be a guy that can come in a shutdown hitters on the both sides of the plate, so to see him struggle in an area that is supposedly his specialty does not bode well for his future with this team.
David Carpenter has seen most of his action in moments of little consequence, but with Gearrin's struggles, that could change. A few weeks ago, he seemed to be the most likely to be sent down once Beachy returned to the rotation, and a starter moved to the pen. That may still be the case, but it isn't as much a sure thing now as it was a few weeks ago.
The return of Beachy should help mitigate these issues. Moving a starter, most likely Kris Medlen, or even putting Beachy himself in the bullpen to start out, will replace one of Gearrin or Carpenter with an arm more capable of productive, beneficial relief appearances. By bumping everyone (except Kimbrel and Walden) down a notch in their roles, Fredi can more effectively manage the strengths of his relievers to the benefit of the team, and if it goes well, acquiring another LHP for the bullpen may become completely unnecessary. With that being said, the longer it takes Beachy to return, the more likely Frank Wren is to look outside the organization for bullpen help.
There has been a normal degree of media speculation about what moves, if any, the Braves can be expected to make with the trade deadline roughly a month away. Most of this talk has centered around the Braves being in the market for a left-handed reliever, a possibility Frank Wren all but confirmed last month to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal.
The market for relief pitching is still developing, and there's still plenty of time for further maturation. However, the dynamic this year is different than in years' past, due to:
a) Teams on the playoff periphery, that may have otherwise opted to trade relief assets, are hanging onto low-cost/controlled players that may help them earn a wild-card berth.
b) The market for relievers, specifically left-handed relievers, is shaping up to be below-average relative to other years.
The demand for left-handed specialists is always high, and this year should be no different. Coupled with the lack of supply, one can expect to see teams pay a premium to acquire these arms, whether that premium is constituted of money, prospects, or some combination thereof. The lack of high-end talent and contractual considerations should ease the market slightly, but in the end, a litany of overpays will almost certainly prevail.
It is under these inauspicious circumstances that we review what the true needs of this bullpen are. Collectively, the first-half performance has been very comparable to last year's first-half. When averaging the stats of everyone with at least ten appearances (Alex Wood was included because he will get there soon enough), we see that strikeouts are almost identical, BABIP is down (likely attributable to Simmons and other defensive-minded moves that Fredi has made in the late innings), HR rate is down over 50%, and strand-rate and groundball rates aren't different enough to matter.
The real issue with this bullpen right now is walks, the main offenders being Avilan, Carpenter, Gearrin, and Wood, all of whom have a BB% over ten percent. Let's remove Alex Wood so as to avoid outliers and skewness. The three remaining pitchers are walking a batter for every 1.4 batters they strike out. Their WHIP is 1.28, their BABIP is .260, and their xFIP is 4.49. In other words, they've been the beneficiaries of some luck, and while having a good defense behind them can help explain some of that, it won't always be the case.
As it stands right now, Luis Avilan is the top lefty out of the pen. He is an average reliever being asked to come into high-leverage situations and perform at the level of 2011-2012 Jonny Venters and Eric O'Flaherty, and it's just not working. With that being said, in light of the available options, he's probably the best choice for that spot given the current construction of the roster.
Cory Gearrin's situation is different. Right now, he's probably fourth on the depth chart for righties. He has not performed well in high-leverage situations, and to make matters worse, he has struggled in the specialty role many had predicted him to be successful in. Right-handed hitters have a .387 OBP against him this year, and his GB% against righties has dropped from his career average of ~56% to ~45% in 2013. He's not going to be a guy that can come in a shutdown hitters on the both sides of the plate, so to see him struggle in an area that is supposedly his specialty does not bode well for his future with this team.
David Carpenter has seen most of his action in moments of little consequence, but with Gearrin's struggles, that could change. A few weeks ago, he seemed to be the most likely to be sent down once Beachy returned to the rotation, and a starter moved to the pen. That may still be the case, but it isn't as much a sure thing now as it was a few weeks ago.
The return of Beachy should help mitigate these issues. Moving a starter, most likely Kris Medlen, or even putting Beachy himself in the bullpen to start out, will replace one of Gearrin or Carpenter with an arm more capable of productive, beneficial relief appearances. By bumping everyone (except Kimbrel and Walden) down a notch in their roles, Fredi can more effectively manage the strengths of his relievers to the benefit of the team, and if it goes well, acquiring another LHP for the bullpen may become completely unnecessary. With that being said, the longer it takes Beachy to return, the more likely Frank Wren is to look outside the organization for bullpen help.
Monday, June 17, 2013
Things that are happening
Tonight begins a rare, often-talked-about but typically-unseen five-game series against the New York Mets, including a double-header on Tuesday to help make one's Tuesday even more worthless than usual. After a decent start, the team has slowly come apart at the seams, culminating in a 3-9 record during the month of June. There isn't much to cheer about as a Mets' fan, but one positive to take away from a wretched few months of baseball has been the emergence of Matt Harvey, who the Braves will get their first look at in game one of tomorrow's double-header. Harvey has come back to earth after his torrid start, but he is one of only a handful of reasons people are watching this team at all. Another justification for masochistic New Yorkers to tune in is native-Georgite Zach Wheeler, who makes his much-anticipated debut tomorrow night in game two of the split. Between Harvey and Wheeler, the Mets have two of the league's most promising young arms, and it's frightening to think just how good this team could be had they been managed properly these past few years. Oh, and that Madoff guy didn't help matters either. While they seem to be righting the ship financially, they have roughly infinityjillion dollars (actually, closer to ~$600M) in loans coming due in 2015, so we should be able to enjoy their struggles for a few more seasons.
Brandon Beachy, who was set to return tomorrow, will not pitch in the series and it is unclear when he will make his 2013 debut having experiencing elbow soreness after his rehab start for Gwinnett. While this is certainly not the news anyone had hoped to hear, an MRI has shown no structural damage in his surgically repaired elbow. As it stands right now, one can still expect Beachy to pitch for the team this season, but it would not be surprising to see him start a few more games in the minors to help assuage any doubts about his durability. The Braves are fortunate enough to be in a position to not need him right now, so this all this really does is delay the reconciliation of an issue that is a good problem to have.
Alex Wood, he of the 1890's-esque pitching style, will make his first start tomorrow against Matt Harvey. While it's too soon to say whether or not Wood is a candidate for a spot in next year's rotation, that is a topic to keep an eye on. Maholm and Hudson are both free-agents after 2013, and there is a distinct possibility that one or both may not return next season. Outside of the trade for Maholm at last year's deadline, the Braves have shown a propensity to fill these positions with in-house candidates, and while Wood's mechanics may scream "RELIEVER!", it would not be far-fetched to think the Braves' front office views him as a potential candidate, albeit likely a tentative one at this early stage.
From Dave O'Brien, Andrelton Simmons has the NL's lowest OBP from the leadoff spot at .249. That's exceptionally bad production, and keep in mind that he is getting more at-bats than anyone on the team, and will continue to do so until he is moved. One might think that day is coming sooner rather than later, but then again, one might have thought that two weeks ago.
Finally, a certain player has had quite the June. His OBP is .377, his ISO is .240, his BB% is 18.5%, his wOBA is .388, and his wRC+ is 151, all with a BABIP of .214. His name? BJ Upton. Yet another reminder of why large sets of data can't be dismissed in the face of a six-week slump.
Series matchups:
Monday, 7:10 (local broadcast)
Dillon Gee v. Tim Hudson
Tuesday, 1:10 (local broadcast)
Matt Harvey v. Alex Wood
Tuesday, 7:10 (local broadcast)
Zach Wheeler v. Paul Maholm
Wednesday, 7:10 (local broadcast)
Shaun Marcum v. Kris Medlen
Thursday, 7:10 (local broadcast)
Jonathan Niese v. Mike Minor
Tonight's lineup:
Simmons (sigh)
Heyward
Justin
Freeman
White Bear, The Legend of
BJ
Uggla
Johnson
(All non-superfluous information courtesy of FanGraphs, NBC Sports, ESPN, and Capital New York)
Brandon Beachy, who was set to return tomorrow, will not pitch in the series and it is unclear when he will make his 2013 debut having experiencing elbow soreness after his rehab start for Gwinnett. While this is certainly not the news anyone had hoped to hear, an MRI has shown no structural damage in his surgically repaired elbow. As it stands right now, one can still expect Beachy to pitch for the team this season, but it would not be surprising to see him start a few more games in the minors to help assuage any doubts about his durability. The Braves are fortunate enough to be in a position to not need him right now, so this all this really does is delay the reconciliation of an issue that is a good problem to have.
Alex Wood, he of the 1890's-esque pitching style, will make his first start tomorrow against Matt Harvey. While it's too soon to say whether or not Wood is a candidate for a spot in next year's rotation, that is a topic to keep an eye on. Maholm and Hudson are both free-agents after 2013, and there is a distinct possibility that one or both may not return next season. Outside of the trade for Maholm at last year's deadline, the Braves have shown a propensity to fill these positions with in-house candidates, and while Wood's mechanics may scream "RELIEVER!", it would not be far-fetched to think the Braves' front office views him as a potential candidate, albeit likely a tentative one at this early stage.
From Dave O'Brien, Andrelton Simmons has the NL's lowest OBP from the leadoff spot at .249. That's exceptionally bad production, and keep in mind that he is getting more at-bats than anyone on the team, and will continue to do so until he is moved. One might think that day is coming sooner rather than later, but then again, one might have thought that two weeks ago.
Finally, a certain player has had quite the June. His OBP is .377, his ISO is .240, his BB% is 18.5%, his wOBA is .388, and his wRC+ is 151, all with a BABIP of .214. His name? BJ Upton. Yet another reminder of why large sets of data can't be dismissed in the face of a six-week slump.
Series matchups:
Monday, 7:10 (local broadcast)
Dillon Gee v. Tim Hudson
Tuesday, 1:10 (local broadcast)
Matt Harvey v. Alex Wood
Tuesday, 7:10 (local broadcast)
Zach Wheeler v. Paul Maholm
Wednesday, 7:10 (local broadcast)
Shaun Marcum v. Kris Medlen
Thursday, 7:10 (local broadcast)
Jonathan Niese v. Mike Minor
Tonight's lineup:
Simmons (sigh)
Heyward
Justin
Freeman
White Bear, The Legend of
BJ
Uggla
Johnson
(All non-superfluous information courtesy of FanGraphs, NBC Sports, ESPN, and Capital New York)
Saturday, June 15, 2013
This isn't your grandfather's Chris Johnson
Before the start of the season, the national media had one question on it's mind with respect to the Braves: who replaces Chipper? The answer to that question is obvious: nobody. Chipper Jones will go into the Hall of Fame and be remembered as one of the greatest 3B to ever play the game.
Martin Prado was the assumed heir-apparent, but once he got traded, things started to look bleak. Frank Wren's remedy for this was to have Kevin Towers throw in Chris Johnson as apart of the Justin Upton trade. At the start of the season, Wren was hailed as a titan of industry thanks to Johnson's performance. What's been going on with him lately?
In April, Johnson posted a ridiculous .391 OBP and an OPS of .915. This was due in large part to a .460 BABIP, an outlier relative to his career number of .354, which seems surprisingly high considering he's really not that fast. During this time, Johnson was platooning at third with Francisco, so he was facing LHP almost exclusively. However, for his career, he actually hits RHP better than LHP anyway, so there's no reason to think his performance was due to the platoon. He was hitting more line-drives than his career average (~26% v. ~24%) and fewer groundballs (~44% v. ~47%), contributing to the high average on batted balls.
May paints a similar picture, but it is during this month that we begin to see more strikeouts, walks, and less power. He has never been one to take a lot of walks, unfortunate for him considering how often he strikes out. Johnson was still riding the wave of his high BABIP during this time (though it has begun to regress), and his batted ball data wasn't appreciably different from his April numbers, leading one to believe that while the numbers are still inflated to some extent, the true talent-level performance may be within sight. It should be noted that the month of May saw the height of the platoon between Johnson/Francisco despite Fredi Gonzalez's assertion that Johnson would be the everyday guy.
The Ides of June are upon us, and with the trade of Francisco, Johnson has more or less become the regular 3B. Unfortunately, that hasn't been the best news, as June hasn't been kind to him. His BB:K ratio is trending in the right direction, and he has regained some of his power despite not hitting a HR thus far in June. His BABIP has dropped from ~.400 the first two months of the season to .280, well below his career average, and while nobody wants to see that necessarily, one can take solace in the idea that the number will almost certainly rise.
The most troubling aspects of Johnson's recent struggles have been the inordinate amount of groundballs he hits, and because GB% typically has an inverse relationship with LD% and FB%, he has turned into a double-play waiting to happen. Again, these percentages are taken from a sample of two weeks' worth of data, so it's too early to begin tweeting Chipper and asking him to ride into Turner Field Braveheart-style to lead this team in October
If there's a silver lining to be found, it's that Fredi has proven himself to be flexible and proactive about Johnson's struggles, recently hitting in the seventh and eighth spot in the lineup. Now if only he would do the same with Andrelton Simmons (sigh).
Is Chris Johnson an ideal replacement for Chipper? If the question is asked in a vacuum, the answer is an obvious no. Once the circumstances are taken into account (lack of financial flexibility of the team, lack of an available upgrade on the trade market or internally), his offensive performance has been about as good as one could ask for. He's not a long-run solution, he's not an All-Star, and his defense isn't spectacular (though he hasn't been as bad as the author predicted him to be), but if a team can afford to bat him near the bottom of their lineup, that's a good indicator of the talent level in said lineup. When considering all the variables, the leading returns point toward Johnson being a very good pickup for Frank Wren and the Braves.
Martin Prado was the assumed heir-apparent, but once he got traded, things started to look bleak. Frank Wren's remedy for this was to have Kevin Towers throw in Chris Johnson as apart of the Justin Upton trade. At the start of the season, Wren was hailed as a titan of industry thanks to Johnson's performance. What's been going on with him lately?
In April, Johnson posted a ridiculous .391 OBP and an OPS of .915. This was due in large part to a .460 BABIP, an outlier relative to his career number of .354, which seems surprisingly high considering he's really not that fast. During this time, Johnson was platooning at third with Francisco, so he was facing LHP almost exclusively. However, for his career, he actually hits RHP better than LHP anyway, so there's no reason to think his performance was due to the platoon. He was hitting more line-drives than his career average (~26% v. ~24%) and fewer groundballs (~44% v. ~47%), contributing to the high average on batted balls.
May paints a similar picture, but it is during this month that we begin to see more strikeouts, walks, and less power. He has never been one to take a lot of walks, unfortunate for him considering how often he strikes out. Johnson was still riding the wave of his high BABIP during this time (though it has begun to regress), and his batted ball data wasn't appreciably different from his April numbers, leading one to believe that while the numbers are still inflated to some extent, the true talent-level performance may be within sight. It should be noted that the month of May saw the height of the platoon between Johnson/Francisco despite Fredi Gonzalez's assertion that Johnson would be the everyday guy.
The Ides of June are upon us, and with the trade of Francisco, Johnson has more or less become the regular 3B. Unfortunately, that hasn't been the best news, as June hasn't been kind to him. His BB:K ratio is trending in the right direction, and he has regained some of his power despite not hitting a HR thus far in June. His BABIP has dropped from ~.400 the first two months of the season to .280, well below his career average, and while nobody wants to see that necessarily, one can take solace in the idea that the number will almost certainly rise.
The most troubling aspects of Johnson's recent struggles have been the inordinate amount of groundballs he hits, and because GB% typically has an inverse relationship with LD% and FB%, he has turned into a double-play waiting to happen. Again, these percentages are taken from a sample of two weeks' worth of data, so it's too early to begin tweeting Chipper and asking him to ride into Turner Field Braveheart-style to lead this team in October
If there's a silver lining to be found, it's that Fredi has proven himself to be flexible and proactive about Johnson's struggles, recently hitting in the seventh and eighth spot in the lineup. Now if only he would do the same with Andrelton Simmons (sigh).
Is Chris Johnson an ideal replacement for Chipper? If the question is asked in a vacuum, the answer is an obvious no. Once the circumstances are taken into account (lack of financial flexibility of the team, lack of an available upgrade on the trade market or internally), his offensive performance has been about as good as one could ask for. He's not a long-run solution, he's not an All-Star, and his defense isn't spectacular (though he hasn't been as bad as the author predicted him to be), but if a team can afford to bat him near the bottom of their lineup, that's a good indicator of the talent level in said lineup. When considering all the variables, the leading returns point toward Johnson being a very good pickup for Frank Wren and the Braves.
Friday, June 14, 2013
Game 67 recap - MAD BUM
Overall, tonight was one of the season's most forgettable games, so there's no sense in dissecting it. They still have a great chance to take two of three. And, hey, the Nationals lost tonight too, so there's that.
(Leverage Index courtesy of FanGraphs)
Padres recap/Giants preview and more
Hooray for no more 10 PM starts! That needed to be said. The author doesn't care for them whatsoever.
Yesterday's scheduled off-day couldn't have come at a better time for the Braves, who limped home from a disappointing 2-5 west coast road trip having split the LA series and promptly being swept by a San Diego team that, in spite of the results, is still a very mediocre club at best.
There were a few positives to take from the San Diego series. First, Justin Upton seems to be slowly getting back in his groove. Heyward and BJ continued their good work. Freeman is hitting everything right now. Huddy had another solid outing, and in spite of the losses, Teheran and Maholm didn't look that bad.
The Padres found themselves the beneficiaries of some timely hitting and good performances from their starters. Sure, they're not the Cardinals, and they're probably not even the Rockies, but they are a major league team, and over the course of a long season they're bound to get hot and pull a few games out that they may have otherwise lost, all things being equal. It's a frustrating series to lose, but the Braves will get another shot at them when they come to Atlanta in September.
The defending world series champion San Francisco Giants roll into town tonight with a 5-6 record in June and 12 losses in their past 17 road games. They have a (-14) run differential this month, giving up 55 runs while scoring only 41, ten of which came in yesterday's 10-0 blowout of Pittsburgh. Unfortunately for Giants fans, they will face Atlanta without some of their key players, including Pablo Sandoval (foot injury), Angel Pagan (hamstring), and most likely Marco Scutaro, who has been diagnosed with something called a "mallet finger", a malady that is a sure frontrunner for coolest-sounding injury in the history of the entire freakin' world. While one might hesitate to think that this Giants team is made of the same substance that the previous world champion teams were made of, the core of those teams is more or less still intact, and just because they've been playing poorly as of late doesn't mean they can't come in and take three.
One more note on the Giants: Brian Stow, the fan that was viciously and senselessly beaten after a game at Dodger Stadium two years ago, finally went home to Santa Cruz, CA today, after splitting time between hospitals and rehab centers. Here's to a long, fulfilling life for Mr. Stow, and swift justice to the unfortunate souls that put him in that position.
Tonight begins an eight-game homestand, with three against SF followed by the rare five-gamer against the Mets (including a double-header next Tuesday). Atlanta owns the best home record in baseball at 21-7, and the pitchers have a sub-two ERA in the last 15 games at Turner Field. Offensively, they have some fairly large splits at home versus the road, including a 20-point delta in OBP (.333 at home versus .313 away) and a 15-point difference in wRC+ (112 at home versus 97 away), just to name a few. Numbers on both sides of the aisle can be expected to regress towards the mean as the season plays out, but having 53 of the final 96 games at home is good news for this team.
Series matchups:
Friday, 7:30 (local broadcast, nationally on MLB Network)
Madison "Mad Bum" Bumgarner v. Kris Medlen
Saturday, 4:05 (local broadcast)
Chad Gaudin v. Mike Minor
Sunday, 8:00 (local broadcast, nationally on ESPN)
Tim Lincecum v. Julio Teheran
Starting lineup for tonight's game:
1. Simmons (sigh)
2. Heyward
3. J Upton
4. Freeman
5. McCann
6. BJ Upton
7. Uggla
8. Johnson
There is increasing clamor to see Simmons bumped down in the order, most recently from Talking Chop's Ben Duronio as well as here. It is rather curious to see him consistently hitting at the top of the order despite his lack of production, especially considering how fluid Fredi has been with BJ, Uggla, Johnson, and others. Maybe he knows where the bodies are buried.
Other notes:
Mark Smith, one of the best Braves writers in the game right now, has a great write-up on FanGraphs about the Rome Braves. It's a must read.
Former Brave and resident Georgite Eric Hinske received a five-game suspension for his role in the LA-Arizona melee. He is planning an appeal to the league.
Third-round pick Carlos Salazar (RHP) signed with the Braves, reportedly for more than the slot recommendation of ~$500K. He joins second-round pick Victor Caratini (C/3B), fourth-round pick Tanner Murphy (C/RHP), and sixth-round pick Stephen Janas (RHP) as the only picks taken within the first ten rounds to sign thus far.
(All relevant info courtesy of FanGraphs, ESPN, MLB.com, and MLBTradeRumors.com)
Yesterday's scheduled off-day couldn't have come at a better time for the Braves, who limped home from a disappointing 2-5 west coast road trip having split the LA series and promptly being swept by a San Diego team that, in spite of the results, is still a very mediocre club at best.
There were a few positives to take from the San Diego series. First, Justin Upton seems to be slowly getting back in his groove. Heyward and BJ continued their good work. Freeman is hitting everything right now. Huddy had another solid outing, and in spite of the losses, Teheran and Maholm didn't look that bad.
The Padres found themselves the beneficiaries of some timely hitting and good performances from their starters. Sure, they're not the Cardinals, and they're probably not even the Rockies, but they are a major league team, and over the course of a long season they're bound to get hot and pull a few games out that they may have otherwise lost, all things being equal. It's a frustrating series to lose, but the Braves will get another shot at them when they come to Atlanta in September.
The defending world series champion San Francisco Giants roll into town tonight with a 5-6 record in June and 12 losses in their past 17 road games. They have a (-14) run differential this month, giving up 55 runs while scoring only 41, ten of which came in yesterday's 10-0 blowout of Pittsburgh. Unfortunately for Giants fans, they will face Atlanta without some of their key players, including Pablo Sandoval (foot injury), Angel Pagan (hamstring), and most likely Marco Scutaro, who has been diagnosed with something called a "mallet finger", a malady that is a sure frontrunner for coolest-sounding injury in the history of the entire freakin' world. While one might hesitate to think that this Giants team is made of the same substance that the previous world champion teams were made of, the core of those teams is more or less still intact, and just because they've been playing poorly as of late doesn't mean they can't come in and take three.
One more note on the Giants: Brian Stow, the fan that was viciously and senselessly beaten after a game at Dodger Stadium two years ago, finally went home to Santa Cruz, CA today, after splitting time between hospitals and rehab centers. Here's to a long, fulfilling life for Mr. Stow, and swift justice to the unfortunate souls that put him in that position.
Tonight begins an eight-game homestand, with three against SF followed by the rare five-gamer against the Mets (including a double-header next Tuesday). Atlanta owns the best home record in baseball at 21-7, and the pitchers have a sub-two ERA in the last 15 games at Turner Field. Offensively, they have some fairly large splits at home versus the road, including a 20-point delta in OBP (.333 at home versus .313 away) and a 15-point difference in wRC+ (112 at home versus 97 away), just to name a few. Numbers on both sides of the aisle can be expected to regress towards the mean as the season plays out, but having 53 of the final 96 games at home is good news for this team.
Series matchups:
Friday, 7:30 (local broadcast, nationally on MLB Network)
Madison "Mad Bum" Bumgarner v. Kris Medlen
Saturday, 4:05 (local broadcast)
Chad Gaudin v. Mike Minor
Sunday, 8:00 (local broadcast, nationally on ESPN)
Tim Lincecum v. Julio Teheran
Starting lineup for tonight's game:
1. Simmons (sigh)
2. Heyward
3. J Upton
4. Freeman
5. McCann
6. BJ Upton
7. Uggla
8. Johnson
There is increasing clamor to see Simmons bumped down in the order, most recently from Talking Chop's Ben Duronio as well as here. It is rather curious to see him consistently hitting at the top of the order despite his lack of production, especially considering how fluid Fredi has been with BJ, Uggla, Johnson, and others. Maybe he knows where the bodies are buried.
Other notes:
Mark Smith, one of the best Braves writers in the game right now, has a great write-up on FanGraphs about the Rome Braves. It's a must read.
Former Brave and resident Georgite Eric Hinske received a five-game suspension for his role in the LA-Arizona melee. He is planning an appeal to the league.
Third-round pick Carlos Salazar (RHP) signed with the Braves, reportedly for more than the slot recommendation of ~$500K. He joins second-round pick Victor Caratini (C/3B), fourth-round pick Tanner Murphy (C/RHP), and sixth-round pick Stephen Janas (RHP) as the only picks taken within the first ten rounds to sign thus far.
(All relevant info courtesy of FanGraphs, ESPN, MLB.com, and MLBTradeRumors.com)
Tuesday, June 11, 2013
Jason Heyward is still who we thought he was
There has been a substantial amount of teeth-gnashing regarding the performance of Jason Heyward so far this season. Some have even called into the question the amount of playing time he has seen, wishing instead to see the "hot hand" of Jordan Schafer take his place in the lineup. Fortunately, cooler heads have prevailed, allowing Jason to work out his issues at the plate, and we appear to be on the cusp of seeing the fruits of his labor. After all, he did lay on an operating table while other humans removed organs from his body, so a grace period to collect himself was certainly in order.
Although you wouldn't know it by looking at his batting average, Heyward's approach has improved markedly in 2013. His BB% is up from last year's 8.9% to 11.4%, and his K% is down from 23.3% to 16.9%. He is swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone, more pitches inside the zone, and he's making more contact on pitches in general, utilizing all fields very effectively. He is driving the ball more, hitting fewer ground balls overall, and for a guy with his power, that's a definite positive. As good as this news is, the better news is shown in this chart:
Since his phenomenal rookie campaign, Heyward's batted-ball statistics are trending exactly how one would want them to. He did take a step back in 2011, but has shown steady improvement ever since. His HR/FB is lower than his career average, but that number should regress to closer to his career line as he tallies more plate appearances.
Speaking of more plate appearances, it has become increasingly clear that Andrelton Simmons is not the answer at the top of the order. A common contention is that hitting Heyward in that spot will "waste" his power, but there's no evidence to support that line of thinking. The leadoff hitter only leads off once, so there is plenty of potential for him to hit with runners on base, especially in a lineup with some higher-OBP (relatively speaking) guys hitting further down in the order. He will get his opportunities to drive in runs, but more important to this team right now is his ability to not just get on base but run them as well as anyone in the game. Doing so ahead of the meat of this lineup will yield dividends in the long-run.
Although you wouldn't know it by looking at his batting average, Heyward's approach has improved markedly in 2013. His BB% is up from last year's 8.9% to 11.4%, and his K% is down from 23.3% to 16.9%. He is swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone, more pitches inside the zone, and he's making more contact on pitches in general, utilizing all fields very effectively. He is driving the ball more, hitting fewer ground balls overall, and for a guy with his power, that's a definite positive. As good as this news is, the better news is shown in this chart:
Since his phenomenal rookie campaign, Heyward's batted-ball statistics are trending exactly how one would want them to. He did take a step back in 2011, but has shown steady improvement ever since. His HR/FB is lower than his career average, but that number should regress to closer to his career line as he tallies more plate appearances.
Speaking of more plate appearances, it has become increasingly clear that Andrelton Simmons is not the answer at the top of the order. A common contention is that hitting Heyward in that spot will "waste" his power, but there's no evidence to support that line of thinking. The leadoff hitter only leads off once, so there is plenty of potential for him to hit with runners on base, especially in a lineup with some higher-OBP (relatively speaking) guys hitting further down in the order. He will get his opportunities to drive in runs, but more important to this team right now is his ability to not just get on base but run them as well as anyone in the game. Doing so ahead of the meat of this lineup will yield dividends in the long-run.
Monday, June 10, 2013
The Fathers and other notes
Tonight the Braves begin a three-game set against the Padres, ending a west coast stint that has seen them split a series with the Dodgers. Thankfully, tomorrow's game will be the last of the 10 PM starts on the east coast, as no game after Tuesday's will occur west of Kansas City.
There isn't much to be said about the remarkably mediocre Padres, other than they are five games under .500 and unwatchable by ~22% of their home market thanks to an asinine stalemate between Fox Sports San Diego and Time Warner Cable, a ridiculous situation that you can read more about here. With the trade deadline approaching, teams will undoubtedly inquire as to the availability of some of their marquee players, such as Carlos Quentin, Chase Headley, and tonight's starter, former Brave Jason Marquis. Of course, when one finds themselves referring to Jason Marquis as a "marquee" player on a team, one quickly realizes that the less said about that team, the better.
Elsewhere, Chipper is back in the news. Presented without comment:
Talking Chop posted a great article detailing the Braves' efforts in the recent Rule 4 draft. The consensus from the baseball nerdosphere has not been a kind regarding the picks, particularly the drafting of Frank Wren's son Kyle in the 8th round. Only time will tell how these picks will pan out, and one would be best suited to assume most will never be heard from in any capacity with the team, while two or three will separate themselves and carve out a career in the game.
Juan Francisco has one hit in 20 at-bats with the Brewers, splitting time between 1B and 3B. Here's hoping he can put it together for them and do some damage against the NL central.
Series matchups:
Monday, 10:10 (local broadcast)
Julio Teheran v. Jason Marquis
Tuesday, 10:10 (local broadcast)
Tim Hudson v. Andrew Cashner
Wednesday, 3:40 (local broadcast)
Paul Maholm v. Edinson Volquez
(Information courtesy of FanGraphs, ESPN Stats & Info, Talking Chop, and Gas Lamp Ball)
The return of Beachy
As you may already know, Brandon Beachy is on schedule to return to the Atlanta rotation June 18th, most likely starting the first game of a doubleheader against the Mets. By all accounts, Beachy has pitched very effectively in his minor league rehab starts with no setbacks to speak of that would preclude him from returning to the team. That being said, Beachy is returning to a pitching staff that looks to be much more formidable than last year's, thus making the decision of whose place he takes a very difficult one for Frank Wren and company. Let's examine the issue from all sides.
First, Tim Hudson is off the table as an option to go the bullpen. He's a veteran starter, a team leader, and when he's on, he's still very effective. Though one may not necessarily agree with that logic, it will prevail regardless, and there's really no sense in trying to debunk it or rationalize the associated flaws therein. It simply is what it is.
Mike Minor has been the best starter on the team since this time last year. Obviously he's not going anywhere, nor should he.
Julio Teheran has developed into a quality starter, and I seriously doubt that moving him to the bullpen is a step that Wren would find worthwhile. His start this year is reminiscent of Minor's last year, and halting that momentum could prove detrimental to his development in the long-run.
Paul Maholm is a free agent after this season, and could be a candidate for the Braves to re-sign depending on how things go with Tim Hudson (also in the last year of his deal). He could also command a substantial return in a trade, especially considering how weak the market appears to be this year. However, starting pitching depth can be fleeting, and this is a team that is built to win a World Series this season. Trading Maholm could prove to be a fatal mistake if another starter goes down, as the replacement for that starter would certainly not be as good/proven/reliable as Paul Maholm has shown himself to be over the course of his career.
Although Kris Medlen has proven himself worthy of a spot in a starting rotation, he currently finds himself the most likely victim of the circumstances in this case. Hitters are being more patient with him, forcing him to throw more pitches in the zone, and the results haven't been pretty. He's walking more guys, giving up more fly balls and more home runs. Though he hasn't been able to live up to his lofty 2012 performance, he would still be a quality third/fourth starter for most other clubs with his numbers to date.
If Brandon Beachy can come back and pitch even close to the way he pitched before his injury, he will most likely battle Mike Minor for the honor of staff ace. No matter whose spot in the rotation he takes, short of Minor, he will provide an upgrade and the team will be better off for it. The same goes for Medlen, who I assume will be sent to the bullpen, most likely taking David Carpenter's spot. Having a guy like Medlen to team up with Walden and Kimbrel gives Atlanta three high-quality relievers, not to mention the fact that it allows guys like Gearrin, Avilan, and the rest to work in situations more appropriate to their skill sets.
Imagine a first place team that has some of the best pitching peripherals in the game saying, in June mind you, that they need to go get a big arm to help strengthen what is already a team strength. Oh, and they also need a high-leverage bullpen guy to take some of the heat off of the other relievers. That is essentially what one can expect the Braves to do in the week ahead, except they won't be sacrificing any prospects, cash, or players-to-be named later in the process. That is an enviable position, to say the least.
First, Tim Hudson is off the table as an option to go the bullpen. He's a veteran starter, a team leader, and when he's on, he's still very effective. Though one may not necessarily agree with that logic, it will prevail regardless, and there's really no sense in trying to debunk it or rationalize the associated flaws therein. It simply is what it is.
Mike Minor has been the best starter on the team since this time last year. Obviously he's not going anywhere, nor should he.
Julio Teheran has developed into a quality starter, and I seriously doubt that moving him to the bullpen is a step that Wren would find worthwhile. His start this year is reminiscent of Minor's last year, and halting that momentum could prove detrimental to his development in the long-run.
Paul Maholm is a free agent after this season, and could be a candidate for the Braves to re-sign depending on how things go with Tim Hudson (also in the last year of his deal). He could also command a substantial return in a trade, especially considering how weak the market appears to be this year. However, starting pitching depth can be fleeting, and this is a team that is built to win a World Series this season. Trading Maholm could prove to be a fatal mistake if another starter goes down, as the replacement for that starter would certainly not be as good/proven/reliable as Paul Maholm has shown himself to be over the course of his career.
Although Kris Medlen has proven himself worthy of a spot in a starting rotation, he currently finds himself the most likely victim of the circumstances in this case. Hitters are being more patient with him, forcing him to throw more pitches in the zone, and the results haven't been pretty. He's walking more guys, giving up more fly balls and more home runs. Though he hasn't been able to live up to his lofty 2012 performance, he would still be a quality third/fourth starter for most other clubs with his numbers to date.
If Brandon Beachy can come back and pitch even close to the way he pitched before his injury, he will most likely battle Mike Minor for the honor of staff ace. No matter whose spot in the rotation he takes, short of Minor, he will provide an upgrade and the team will be better off for it. The same goes for Medlen, who I assume will be sent to the bullpen, most likely taking David Carpenter's spot. Having a guy like Medlen to team up with Walden and Kimbrel gives Atlanta three high-quality relievers, not to mention the fact that it allows guys like Gearrin, Avilan, and the rest to work in situations more appropriate to their skill sets.
Imagine a first place team that has some of the best pitching peripherals in the game saying, in June mind you, that they need to go get a big arm to help strengthen what is already a team strength. Oh, and they also need a high-leverage bullpen guy to take some of the heat off of the other relievers. That is essentially what one can expect the Braves to do in the week ahead, except they won't be sacrificing any prospects, cash, or players-to-be named later in the process. That is an enviable position, to say the least.
Saturday, June 8, 2013
It's time to move Simba out of the leadoff spot
Andrelton Simmons does many things very well. He is probably the best defender in the game regardless of position, though a case can be made for a handful of other players. He possesses above-average speed, though he doesn't steal as many bases as you would think. He also leads the team in contact percentage, putting the ball in-play 88.7% of the time, a clip well above the league average. All things considered, he is a dynamic player, and one that many teams would trade for in a heartbeat were he to be made available. On this team, however, he is not an optimal choice in the leadoff spot.
Through yesterday's action, Simmons' on-base percentage is .290, a mark that sits just ahead of the recently departed Juan Francisco (.287) and behind Jason Heyward (.300). Looking at the numbers over the course of the past 30 days does nothing to inspire hope, as his OBP is a team-worst .254. Never one to take many free passes, an ideal attribute in a leadoff hitter, his BB% sits at 3.3%. While he has had a bit of bad luck with balls in play, the discrepancy isn't large enough to lead one to the conclusion that his struggles are entirely attributable to forces outside his control. For an Atlanta team that ranks near the bottom of the league in OBP from their leadoff hitters, he is beginning to shape up as the main offender, and it's coming to the point where his BB/K ratio is stabilizing. It's nice to have a player that can make contact the way he can, especially in a lineup so prone to an all-or-nothing approach, but his presence at the top of the order does nothing to maximize the efficiency of that skill. Hitting him behind players that get on base more frequently would allow him a chance to drive more runs in, and because he does such a great job of making contact, naturally he would be a better option with runners in scoring position than someone like Dan Uggla.
As for who would be the best choice to take his place, Jason Heyward is really the only option that makes sense. Although he has not performed to the point many predicted before the season, he is showing signs of breaking out of his funk. Since his return from the DL on May 17, his OBP and OPS have risen steadily, and his season BB% sits at 10.6%, good for fourth on team amongst hitters with at least 150 plate appearances. His BABIP (.214) is still suffering from his slow start, so one can expect to see that number rise closer to his career average (.301) as the season progresses, and it should aid his OBP accordingly. Heyward is also driving the ball more than 10% over his career average and hitting 12% fewer ground balls, a good sign for a guy with power to all parts of the field. If these trends continue, and there's really no reason to think that they won't as he has enough plate appearances for them to be relatively stable, Heyward will more than make up for his slow start with a fast finish.
With more than a third of the season in behind them, the Braves find themselves the envy of practically all other playoff hopefuls, having built and maintained a solid lead in the game's weakest division. That doesn't mean they should rest on their laurels however, and getting more production out of the leadoff spot could prove vital to the offense hitting a more consistent stride. It's not going to be the difference between 90 wins and 100 wins, but if sabermetric/economic discipline has taught us anything, it's that moves made with an eye towards marginal efficiency can pay big dividends in the long-run. Hit Heyward in the leadoff spot, bump everyone else up a notch in the order, and put Simmons in a position to maximize his abilities. Win-win-win.
Through yesterday's action, Simmons' on-base percentage is .290, a mark that sits just ahead of the recently departed Juan Francisco (.287) and behind Jason Heyward (.300). Looking at the numbers over the course of the past 30 days does nothing to inspire hope, as his OBP is a team-worst .254. Never one to take many free passes, an ideal attribute in a leadoff hitter, his BB% sits at 3.3%. While he has had a bit of bad luck with balls in play, the discrepancy isn't large enough to lead one to the conclusion that his struggles are entirely attributable to forces outside his control. For an Atlanta team that ranks near the bottom of the league in OBP from their leadoff hitters, he is beginning to shape up as the main offender, and it's coming to the point where his BB/K ratio is stabilizing. It's nice to have a player that can make contact the way he can, especially in a lineup so prone to an all-or-nothing approach, but his presence at the top of the order does nothing to maximize the efficiency of that skill. Hitting him behind players that get on base more frequently would allow him a chance to drive more runs in, and because he does such a great job of making contact, naturally he would be a better option with runners in scoring position than someone like Dan Uggla.
As for who would be the best choice to take his place, Jason Heyward is really the only option that makes sense. Although he has not performed to the point many predicted before the season, he is showing signs of breaking out of his funk. Since his return from the DL on May 17, his OBP and OPS have risen steadily, and his season BB% sits at 10.6%, good for fourth on team amongst hitters with at least 150 plate appearances. His BABIP (.214) is still suffering from his slow start, so one can expect to see that number rise closer to his career average (.301) as the season progresses, and it should aid his OBP accordingly. Heyward is also driving the ball more than 10% over his career average and hitting 12% fewer ground balls, a good sign for a guy with power to all parts of the field. If these trends continue, and there's really no reason to think that they won't as he has enough plate appearances for them to be relatively stable, Heyward will more than make up for his slow start with a fast finish.
With more than a third of the season in behind them, the Braves find themselves the envy of practically all other playoff hopefuls, having built and maintained a solid lead in the game's weakest division. That doesn't mean they should rest on their laurels however, and getting more production out of the leadoff spot could prove vital to the offense hitting a more consistent stride. It's not going to be the difference between 90 wins and 100 wins, but if sabermetric/economic discipline has taught us anything, it's that moves made with an eye towards marginal efficiency can pay big dividends in the long-run. Hit Heyward in the leadoff spot, bump everyone else up a notch in the order, and put Simmons in a position to maximize his abilities. Win-win-win.
Thursday, June 6, 2013
Series preview - the Dodgers
The LA Dodgers have been one baseball's biggest stories since August 26, 2012 when they made a trade with the Boston Red Sox for Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and Adrian Gonzalez. Apparently not satisfied with committing themselves to ~$250M in new contracts, they proceeded to sign Zack Greinke to a six-year, $147M free-agent contract a few months later. I listened to part-owner and Team President Stan Kasten on a FanGraphs podcast not long after the signing and I remember him saying that all the moves were made with an eye towards improving the brand from a PR perspective, implying that improving the product on the field was more a secondary vision. Up to this point, I saw all of the moves he made, from overpaying for the franchise itself (~two billion dollars, a figure that makes the Steinbrenners giddy) to the aforementioned transactions, and thought to myself: "surely they don't think this is going to work, right?"
Well, it hasn't worked. The Dodgers sit in last place in the NL west, looking up 8.5 games at a surprisingly good Arizona Diamondbacks club. Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and AJ Ellis are currently on the DL. Unfortunately, manager Don Mattingly is probably going to lose his job at some point, be it during the season or after. Led by a good rotation, the pitching has been solid, although the bullpen has underperformed (how's that $21M to Brandon League looking?). The offense has been mediocre, though some of that can be attributed to injuries to key performers such as Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez. In an attempt to cure their woes, the Dodgers recently called up Cuban phenom Yasiel Puig (yah-SEAL PWEEG) who promptly rewarded them with two homers and a spectacular throw to end the game in his debut. Coincidentally, another throw shown on the linked video is of Bo Jackson throwing out a runner during his days with Kansas City. Bo Jackson of course, being the greatest athlete that ever lived, is a high standard, but I have heard Puig mentioned in the same breath as him numerous occasions and look forward to judging the accuracy of those comparisons.
The Dodgers are the current poster child for the money flying around in baseball, having signed a 25-year, $7B deal in January with Time Warner to start broadcasting games exclusively on their own channel, SportsNet LA, a deal that makes some in baseball uncomfortable. In terms of the big picture, the Dodgers will most likely be a very successful franchise in the not-too-distant future, not just because they have more money than some entire nations, but also because they have some very savvy people in charge. We all remember what Stan Kasten did in Atlanta, helping to build the Braves into a winner, building a respectable Hawks team, and playing a big part in where the Nationals are today. There's no reason to think he can't do the same with a franchise that is becoming a price setter in the player market, located in a city with strong baseball roots that just so happens to be one of the biggest media markets in the world. He will at some point have to find some people that can spend money more efficiently though, because there's no such thing as an infinity-dollar bill. It will be a few years before real, substantive judgments can be made about his vision.
As for this series the Braves luck out, missing Clayton Kershaw again. Tonight's game marks the start of a seven-game west coast swing, with four in LA and three in San Diego. Of course, that also means some extremely late starts, frustrating for those of us with things to do in the morning. This road trip bears monitoring, as the Braves have played very well at home so far this season (21-7) but barely above .500 on the road (16-15). The Dodgers have not played well since the beginning of May, a 12-20 span that includes a Braves' sweep, so taking anything less than three of four in this series would have to be considered a disappointment.
Series matchups:
Thursday, 10:10 (local broadcast)
Tim Hudson v. Zack Greinke
Friday, 10:10 (local broadcast)
Paul Maholm v. Hyun-Jin Ryu
Saturday, 10:10 (local broadcast)
Kris Medlen v. Stephen Fife
Sunday, 4:10 (local broadcast)
Mike Minor v. Ted Lilly
(All relevant info courtesy of ESPN, MLB.com, and FanGraphs)
Well, it hasn't worked. The Dodgers sit in last place in the NL west, looking up 8.5 games at a surprisingly good Arizona Diamondbacks club. Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and AJ Ellis are currently on the DL. Unfortunately, manager Don Mattingly is probably going to lose his job at some point, be it during the season or after. Led by a good rotation, the pitching has been solid, although the bullpen has underperformed (how's that $21M to Brandon League looking?). The offense has been mediocre, though some of that can be attributed to injuries to key performers such as Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez. In an attempt to cure their woes, the Dodgers recently called up Cuban phenom Yasiel Puig (yah-SEAL PWEEG) who promptly rewarded them with two homers and a spectacular throw to end the game in his debut. Coincidentally, another throw shown on the linked video is of Bo Jackson throwing out a runner during his days with Kansas City. Bo Jackson of course, being the greatest athlete that ever lived, is a high standard, but I have heard Puig mentioned in the same breath as him numerous occasions and look forward to judging the accuracy of those comparisons.
The Dodgers are the current poster child for the money flying around in baseball, having signed a 25-year, $7B deal in January with Time Warner to start broadcasting games exclusively on their own channel, SportsNet LA, a deal that makes some in baseball uncomfortable. In terms of the big picture, the Dodgers will most likely be a very successful franchise in the not-too-distant future, not just because they have more money than some entire nations, but also because they have some very savvy people in charge. We all remember what Stan Kasten did in Atlanta, helping to build the Braves into a winner, building a respectable Hawks team, and playing a big part in where the Nationals are today. There's no reason to think he can't do the same with a franchise that is becoming a price setter in the player market, located in a city with strong baseball roots that just so happens to be one of the biggest media markets in the world. He will at some point have to find some people that can spend money more efficiently though, because there's no such thing as an infinity-dollar bill. It will be a few years before real, substantive judgments can be made about his vision.
As for this series the Braves luck out, missing Clayton Kershaw again. Tonight's game marks the start of a seven-game west coast swing, with four in LA and three in San Diego. Of course, that also means some extremely late starts, frustrating for those of us with things to do in the morning. This road trip bears monitoring, as the Braves have played very well at home so far this season (21-7) but barely above .500 on the road (16-15). The Dodgers have not played well since the beginning of May, a 12-20 span that includes a Braves' sweep, so taking anything less than three of four in this series would have to be considered a disappointment.
Series matchups:
Thursday, 10:10 (local broadcast)
Tim Hudson v. Zack Greinke
Friday, 10:10 (local broadcast)
Paul Maholm v. Hyun-Jin Ryu
Saturday, 10:10 (local broadcast)
Kris Medlen v. Stephen Fife
Sunday, 4:10 (local broadcast)
Mike Minor v. Ted Lilly
(All relevant info courtesy of ESPN, MLB.com, and FanGraphs)
It's a smidge drafty in here
The MLB draft takes place today, with MLB network scheduled to begin their live draft coverage at 6pm EDT. The Houston Astros will pick first for the second consecutive year. The Braves have the 31st pick in the draft, losing their original slot at 21 to the Tampa Bay Rays as compensation for signing free-agent BJ Upton during the winter. The 31st pick is itself a compensatory pick thanks to the Cleveland Indians' signing of Michael Bourn, but because Cleveland is picking in the top ten of the draft, their slot is protected. Wendy Thurm does an excellent job explaining the draft process on FanGraphs if you care to understand further.
The Braves have done a great job graduating players from their minor league system, a system that was ranked near the top in all of baseball a few short years ago. Since seeing Heyward, Freeman, Simmons, Kimbrel, Beachy, Medlen, and Minor take spots with the big club, the system has taken a hit, specifically with OF prospects, of whom there are none of note currently in the system.
As it stands right now, the Braves have an undeniably strong minor league system as far as pitching is concerned, and considering how volatile pitchers tend to be, that's not necessarily a bad thing. In FanGraphs' ranking of the organization's top 15 prospects prior to this season, ten were pitchers, one has since been promoted (Evan Gattis, who ranked at #10) and another, 2B Nick Ahmed, was sent to Arizona as apart of the Upton deal. Today, the system is fairly barren in terms of high-end hitting talent, and while that doesn't really matter this season, it will matter at some point. They have focused on drafting up-the-middle positions (C/SS/CF) recently, taking two catchers (one of whom has since moved to LF) and two center fielders in the first ten rounds of last year's draft, and sprinkling some SS/2B-types in the early rounds of the 2010/2011 drafts, but only one of those guys have reached the majors (Andrelton Simmons), and the rest are a couple years away if they make it at all.
Overall, 2013 is considered to be a generally weak draft class. Just because Atlanta doesn't pick until the end of the first round doesn't mean they won't get any good players, just that they will have to work a little harder than many other teams picking ahead of them. I fully expect the Braves to rank players based on overall talent level, picking whoever is left atop their board when their time comes. If it's a pitcher, so be it. With all the success the Braves have had developing starters and relievers, I'm not arrogant enough to think they should ignore whatever competitive advantage they have just because they haven't popped out another Heyward or Freeman recently. As we have seen this staff rack up injuries this season, it's easy to take for granted just how difficult it is to call up a player to not only replace a Jonny Venters, but do it well enough so as to mostly nullify any potential loss in effectiveness. That's what the Braves do, and if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
(Pertinent data mined from FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference)
The Braves have done a great job graduating players from their minor league system, a system that was ranked near the top in all of baseball a few short years ago. Since seeing Heyward, Freeman, Simmons, Kimbrel, Beachy, Medlen, and Minor take spots with the big club, the system has taken a hit, specifically with OF prospects, of whom there are none of note currently in the system.
As it stands right now, the Braves have an undeniably strong minor league system as far as pitching is concerned, and considering how volatile pitchers tend to be, that's not necessarily a bad thing. In FanGraphs' ranking of the organization's top 15 prospects prior to this season, ten were pitchers, one has since been promoted (Evan Gattis, who ranked at #10) and another, 2B Nick Ahmed, was sent to Arizona as apart of the Upton deal. Today, the system is fairly barren in terms of high-end hitting talent, and while that doesn't really matter this season, it will matter at some point. They have focused on drafting up-the-middle positions (C/SS/CF) recently, taking two catchers (one of whom has since moved to LF) and two center fielders in the first ten rounds of last year's draft, and sprinkling some SS/2B-types in the early rounds of the 2010/2011 drafts, but only one of those guys have reached the majors (Andrelton Simmons), and the rest are a couple years away if they make it at all.
Overall, 2013 is considered to be a generally weak draft class. Just because Atlanta doesn't pick until the end of the first round doesn't mean they won't get any good players, just that they will have to work a little harder than many other teams picking ahead of them. I fully expect the Braves to rank players based on overall talent level, picking whoever is left atop their board when their time comes. If it's a pitcher, so be it. With all the success the Braves have had developing starters and relievers, I'm not arrogant enough to think they should ignore whatever competitive advantage they have just because they haven't popped out another Heyward or Freeman recently. As we have seen this staff rack up injuries this season, it's easy to take for granted just how difficult it is to call up a player to not only replace a Jonny Venters, but do it well enough so as to mostly nullify any potential loss in effectiveness. That's what the Braves do, and if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
(Pertinent data mined from FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference)
Wednesday, June 5, 2013
It's pronounced "Tay-rahn", not "Tuh-hey-rahn"
Julio Teheran has become somewhat of a mythical figure for Braves fans, and much of the prospect community. His AA stint in 2010 garnered him national recognition, setting up huge expectations for 2011, which he promptly lived up to and then some. People naturally assumed that the next stop was the big leagues. Until it wasn't.
Teheran's AAA season in 2012 was as bad as one could imagine. He wasn't stranding runners at the same rate he had been, and his confidence in his changeup (the ultimate "feel" pitch) was dwindling at an alarming rate. Once considered the best pitching prospect in the game, many fans were concerned that he might be closer to a fifth starter instead of the ace that many had projected him to be. The club needed him to be effective, and had he been, he could very well have taken Beachy's spot in the rotation, perhaps even Tommy Hanson's spot once the wheels started to come off for him. But he wasn't ready, no matter how much we may have wanted or needed him to be. His pitching line from 2012 only goes to further that fact:
Through his first three starts of the 2013 season things didn't seem to be coming along much better, as he gave up 13 runs in 16 innings, allowing five homers and walking seven while only striking out 12. Since his start at Colorado on April 23 however, he has given up 13 runs in 55 innings, good for an ERA of 2.57 and an FIP of 3.30. He has struck out ~seven batters per nine and walked eight total batters in that stretch. He has been relying on his fastball (67.2%), slider (19.6%), and curve (8.3%) to keep hitters off-balance, changing speeds and eye levels as effectively as one could hope for. His best four starts on the season (not including today's) have seen him hover around 10-12% swinging strikes. He should be able to continue to get a lot of strikes from those types of events as his repertoire manifests itself, and as enjoyable as it has been to see him develop a slider, one must remember that his seldom-used (5% total) changeup is arguably his best offspeed offering. If he can harness the power of that pitch to his advantage, this guy can be as good as he wants to be.
If you haven't seen today's game, and you've got DVR available, or if you see a replay, I encourage you to check it out. You will witness Julio Teheran quietly proving that patience is a virtue.
(All pertinent statistics courtesy of FanGraphs)
Teheran's AAA season in 2012 was as bad as one could imagine. He wasn't stranding runners at the same rate he had been, and his confidence in his changeup (the ultimate "feel" pitch) was dwindling at an alarming rate. Once considered the best pitching prospect in the game, many fans were concerned that he might be closer to a fifth starter instead of the ace that many had projected him to be. The club needed him to be effective, and had he been, he could very well have taken Beachy's spot in the rotation, perhaps even Tommy Hanson's spot once the wheels started to come off for him. But he wasn't ready, no matter how much we may have wanted or needed him to be. His pitching line from 2012 only goes to further that fact:
Through his first three starts of the 2013 season things didn't seem to be coming along much better, as he gave up 13 runs in 16 innings, allowing five homers and walking seven while only striking out 12. Since his start at Colorado on April 23 however, he has given up 13 runs in 55 innings, good for an ERA of 2.57 and an FIP of 3.30. He has struck out ~seven batters per nine and walked eight total batters in that stretch. He has been relying on his fastball (67.2%), slider (19.6%), and curve (8.3%) to keep hitters off-balance, changing speeds and eye levels as effectively as one could hope for. His best four starts on the season (not including today's) have seen him hover around 10-12% swinging strikes. He should be able to continue to get a lot of strikes from those types of events as his repertoire manifests itself, and as enjoyable as it has been to see him develop a slider, one must remember that his seldom-used (5% total) changeup is arguably his best offspeed offering. If he can harness the power of that pitch to his advantage, this guy can be as good as he wants to be.
If you haven't seen today's game, and you've got DVR available, or if you see a replay, I encourage you to check it out. You will witness Julio Teheran quietly proving that patience is a virtue.
(All pertinent statistics courtesy of FanGraphs)
Tuesday, June 4, 2013
Game 58 recap - Chipper stops by and says things
The Braves stranded 13 runners tonight, striking out 12
times, but mitigated the impact with seven walks. Mike Minor pitched well enough to win, but
made a few mistakes. Looks like he’s
human after all, a real shame to those of us who were hopeful that he was the
Terminator and indeed from the future.
BJ Upton continued his recent outburst with another HR, this
one a no-doubter to straightaway CF.
Every Atlanta starter got on base via hit or walk, something you love to
see with a lineup that strikes out as much as they do.
One interesting moment came during the middle innings when Chipper Jones visited with Chip and Joe in the booth leaving little to the imagination with his
comments about the Braves’ strikeout prone roster. He had a good point; the Braves’ offense is
probably more all-or-nothing than the front office would like, but during much
of the time he referred to (a “30-game stretch of .500 ball”) the team was
without Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward, and Brian McCann at various points for
long stretches of time, not to mention the fact that the schedule during those
periods was as difficult a gauntlet as the Braves will face all season.
(Leverage Index courtesy of FanGraphs)
Monday, June 3, 2013
Francisco to Milwaukee and other random notes
The Braves came to terms with the Milwaukee Brewers on a trade that will send 3B Juan Francisco to the Brewers in exchange for minor league LHP Tom Keeling. The 25 year-old Keeling was an 18th-round pick in the 2010 draft out of Oklahoma State. He is having his best year as a professional at the Brewers' AA affiliate, and he will start an assignment at AA Mississippi when he joins the Braves organization, effectively taking Alex Wood's spot on the roster. He has been a late-inning reliever for Milwaukee, and it's safe to assume he will maintain that capacity in a Braves' uniform.
It is impossible to judge this trade as it stands right now, but from what little information I can gather, this seems like as good a deal as the Braves could have hoped for. In spite of his power, Francisco was never going to command much on the market, and with the trade deadline ~two months away, said market has yet to really develop in any meaningful sense anyway. This could be interpreted as a sign that Milwaukee may be interested in dealing current 3B Aramis Ramirez, as they stand well out of contention in the formidable NL central.
Brandon Beachy is scheduled to make another rehab start tonight for the Gwinnett Braves against Chattanooga. Assuming all goes well, he will make two more starts before being called up, with June 18 against the New York Mets being the target date. No word yet on whose spot in the rotation he will fill, but signs are pointing toward Kris Medlen.
Lastly, a bit of good news regarding the upcoming series against the Dodgers: AJC reporter Dave O'Brien tweeted that the Braves will most likely miss facing Clayton Kershaw during their upcoming west coast swing, meaning that short of the two teams meeting in the playoffs, they will not face him this season. I'm a big fan of Kershaw, but I much prefer to see him on a national broadcast against another team than suiting up against us. That guy is somethin' else.
It is impossible to judge this trade as it stands right now, but from what little information I can gather, this seems like as good a deal as the Braves could have hoped for. In spite of his power, Francisco was never going to command much on the market, and with the trade deadline ~two months away, said market has yet to really develop in any meaningful sense anyway. This could be interpreted as a sign that Milwaukee may be interested in dealing current 3B Aramis Ramirez, as they stand well out of contention in the formidable NL central.
Brandon Beachy is scheduled to make another rehab start tonight for the Gwinnett Braves against Chattanooga. Assuming all goes well, he will make two more starts before being called up, with June 18 against the New York Mets being the target date. No word yet on whose spot in the rotation he will fill, but signs are pointing toward Kris Medlen.
Lastly, a bit of good news regarding the upcoming series against the Dodgers: AJC reporter Dave O'Brien tweeted that the Braves will most likely miss facing Clayton Kershaw during their upcoming west coast swing, meaning that short of the two teams meeting in the playoffs, they will not face him this season. I'm a big fan of Kershaw, but I much prefer to see him on a national broadcast against another team than suiting up against us. That guy is somethin' else.
Examining Fredi's comments about BJ Upton
As you have most likely already seen, Fredi Gonzalez
made some comments about BJ
Upton to members of the Associated Press before the start of Friday’s series
opener against Washington. While
discussing player performance with the media is nothing new, there are varying
degrees of tactfulness employed in such acts that are dependent upon the person
in question. To use a familiar
reference, Bobby Cox made it a point to never use the media as a medium for
airing what I like to call “club business”, opting instead to handle issues
behind the veil of secrecy that is the clubhouse door.
That is not to say that Bobby’s way is the right way in
every situation, because it isn’t. A baseball
manager, like any other manager, must manage personalities effectively, placing
each subordinate into the best position to succeed. Channeling their strengths
toward the greater benefit of the organization and addressing opportunities is at the very essence of that.
Three years into his reign, Fredi seems to be able to do these things
roughly as effectively as any other manager in the game, and while he may not
be the best, he’s certainly not the worst.
He knows these players, and if anyone is in a position to make a
judgment call about how to handle an issue, it’s him. With that in mind, one can’t help but wonder
whether or not he could have chosen his words more carefully. Here is a quote from the interview that
commands closer attention:
"In my own mind,
you think about those things, but really I haven't gotten to that point, I
think there's some logistics -- contractual things and that sort of stuff --
that they might not be able to do it that easy."
Here, likely prompted by a member of the press, he is
referring to the idea of sending BJ Upton to Gwinnett to work out his issues at
the plate. However, he acknowledges the
fact that contractual issues could complicate matters to the point where it may
not be feasible to do so. Looking at
this from an outsider’s perspective, it seems that Fredi is on the fence about
BJ’s presence in Atlanta given his current output level, but he knows his hands
are tied by the fact that, ultimately, it is not his decision. Let’s give that some thought. In the long run, who makes the final call on
this issue? Frank Wren. Fredi’s opinion undoubtedly carries a considerable
amount of sway with the GM, but at the end of the day, it’s Wren’s signature
that matters, not Fredi’s.
No one is saying that BJ Upton’s performance has been up to
anyone’s standards, least of all his own, and there is certainly no sense in blaming
the Braves for keeping all options open as far as his performance is concerned. After all, this team is built to win now and
in the future, and any hindrances to their ability to do so should be
reconciled swiftly. Nevertheless, using
the media as a tool to manage “club business” is probably one of the less
effective resources available to a manager in the contemporary sports landscape
(just ask the NY Jets and the Red Sox). In
a market like New York or Los Angeles, these comments would not have received
as much play as they do here, because in those places, comments like Fredi’s
are par for the course, perhaps even tame.
One sentiment I have heard echoed countless times from fellow Braves fans
is appreciation for the fact that the team has avoided such media attention,
preferring to deal with such issues behind closed doors. When the team does this, it controls the
narrative. That may not seem like a big
deal as it relates to on the field performance, and it won’t turn a 75-win team
into a 90-win team, but it makes the lives of those on the team easier because
they’re not having to combat superfluous media attention brought about by
something that could have otherwise been controlled.
(Reference courtesy of ESPN)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)