Andrelton Simmons does many things very well. He is probably the best defender in the game regardless of position, though a case can be made for a handful of other players. He possesses above-average speed, though he doesn't steal as many bases as you would think. He also leads the team in contact percentage, putting the ball in-play 88.7% of the time, a clip well above the league average. All things considered, he is a dynamic player, and one that many teams would trade for in a heartbeat were he to be made available. On this team, however, he is not an optimal choice in the leadoff spot.
Through yesterday's action, Simmons' on-base percentage is .290, a mark that sits just ahead of the recently departed Juan Francisco (.287) and behind Jason Heyward (.300). Looking at the numbers over the course of the past 30 days does nothing to inspire hope, as his OBP is a team-worst .254. Never one to take many free passes, an ideal attribute in a leadoff hitter, his BB% sits at 3.3%. While he has had a bit of bad luck with balls in play, the discrepancy isn't large enough to lead one to the conclusion that his struggles are entirely attributable to forces outside his control. For an Atlanta team that ranks near the bottom of the league in OBP from their leadoff hitters, he is beginning to shape up as the main offender, and it's coming to the point where his BB/K ratio is stabilizing. It's nice to have a player that can make contact the way he can, especially in a lineup so prone to an all-or-nothing approach, but his presence at the top of the order does nothing to maximize the efficiency of that skill. Hitting him behind players that get on base more frequently would allow him a chance to drive more runs in, and because he does such a great job of making contact, naturally he would be a better option with runners in scoring position than someone like Dan Uggla.
As for who would be the best choice to take his place, Jason Heyward is really the only option that makes sense. Although he has not performed to the point many predicted before the season, he is showing signs of breaking out of his funk. Since his return from the DL on May 17, his OBP and OPS have risen steadily, and his season BB% sits at 10.6%, good for fourth on team amongst hitters with at least 150 plate appearances. His BABIP (.214) is still suffering from his slow start, so one can expect to see that number rise closer to his career average (.301) as the season progresses, and it should aid his OBP accordingly. Heyward is also driving the ball more than 10% over his career average and hitting 12% fewer ground balls, a good sign for a guy with power to all parts of the field. If these trends continue, and there's really no reason to think that they won't as he has enough plate appearances for them to be relatively stable, Heyward will more than make up for his slow start with a fast finish.
With more than a third of the season in behind them, the Braves find themselves the envy of practically all other playoff hopefuls, having built and maintained a solid lead in the game's weakest division. That doesn't mean they should rest on their laurels however, and getting more production out of the leadoff spot could prove vital to the offense hitting a more consistent stride. It's not going to be the difference between 90 wins and 100 wins, but if sabermetric/economic discipline has taught us anything, it's that moves made with an eye towards marginal efficiency can pay big dividends in the long-run. Hit Heyward in the leadoff spot, bump everyone else up a notch in the order, and put Simmons in a position to maximize his abilities. Win-win-win.
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