Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Surveying potential trade candidates

MLBTradeRumors founder Tim Dierkes built a custom FanGraphs leaderboard of potential trade targets for contending teams.  Dave Cameron, managing editor of FanGraphs, posted an article about the leaderboard here along with a succinct explanation of what the list means, and its' relative subjectivity due to asymmetrical information between teams and the unwashed masses, otherwise known as us.  

As it pertains to the Atlanta Braves, it has been established in this blog and other places that at the very least the team will shop for relief pitching this summer, most likely of the left-handed variety.  Using Dierkes' list and deductive reasoning, the author will be profiling a player or two per day or two, whatever life allows.  These are in no particular order, and as Dave Cameron hinted at, there's no guarantee that some of these guys are even available in a trade scenario.  Nevertheless, spit-ballin' here we come!

Glen Perkins, LHP, Minnesota Twins

Perkins is a name Braves fans should be familiar with.  He blew a save on May 21st at Turner Field, falling victim to the explosive nature of Evan Gattis' bat.  He has toiled in relative anonymity due to the struggles of the Twins, and his numbers in 2011-2012 weren't anything special, but 2013 is a different story.  Here are his numbers to date:




It has been nearly a month (May 28) since he has given up a walk, and nearly a month before that came his previous one (May 8).  His strength is strikeouts, as is evidenced by his 12.56 K/9, but the most encouraging stats are in his batted ball peripherals.  He throws 68.5% first-pitch strikes, and he is inducing 14.9% swinging strikes, a number that is almost double his career average, but has steadily climbed over the course of the past three years as he has morphed from a serviceable reliever to dominant closer.  His contact on balls inside the zone has fallen consistently over his career from a high of 94.3% to 80.9% this year.  The guy does what you want late-inning relievers to do: miss bats. 

He's a fastball/slider guy, typical of closers, and his four-seam and two-seam fastballs are similar in velocity, hovering between 94-95 MPH.  The good news about that is that his velocity hasn't diminished over the years so, at least ostensibly, he's still got plenty left in the tank. 

He's more inclined to fly balls and line drives when hitters do make contact, good news for a team with a strong outfield such as the Braves.  Batters have a .254 BABIP against Perkins, a number that should improve pitching in front of a Braves defense that is better than Minnesota's.

Perkins is under contract through 2015 ($2.8M in 2013, $3.5M in 2014 and 2015) with a team option for 2016 of $4.5M.  It is not common practice for the Braves to take on large contracts for bullpen arms, as their ability to call up guys making league-minimum is more fitting for a club that needs to maximize the efficiency of every dollar spent.  As a club that most likely won't contend for another year or two, the Twins will certainly want prospects in return, and GM Terry Ryan has made it no secret that they plan to build around pitching.  These barriers may prove tough to circumvent for Atlanta, but in a context-neutral environment, if there's a guy that is anything close to a "perfect fit" for the Braves' bullpen, Glen Perkins is it.

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