Friday, June 21, 2013

Simmons can't stay at the top

Andrelton Simmons has been hitting at the top of the lineup for the majority of this season without much success.  Among all leadoff men with at least 150 plate appearances, Simmons ranks last in OBP (.258), next to last in OPS (.569, 21 points ahead of Ben Revere), BB/PA (.042), pitches per plate appearance (3.50) and perhaps most tellingly, next to last in runs created (12.7, behind Eric Young Jr, who was dfa'd by the Rockies earlier this week).

His IFFB%, a staggering 18.2%, is the ninth-highest in MLB.  He's taking more first-pitch strikes, more pitches in the strike zone (~40% in 2013 to ~36% for his career), and swinging at fewer pitches relative to his career numbers (~44% in 2013 to ~47% for his career).  For some hitters with good plate discipline, that's not necessarily a bad thing.  In the case of Simmons, who sees fewer pitches per plate appearance than the majority of his peers, it's not doing him any favors.  He has only seen a 3-0 count twelve times the entire season.  After an 0-1 count, his OBP is .247. 

For a guy that is getting more at-bats than anyone on the team, it's curious as to why lack of production hasn't cost him his place in the lineup.  A look at his peripheral statistics doesn't offer much hope of him turning it around.  Continuing to hit him at the top is putting the team at a disadvantage, however marginal the difference may be.

(Stats via FanGraphs and ESPN)

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