Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Does Jesse Crain make sense as a future Brave?

Jesse Crain has quietly been putting up solid numbers for the White Sox over the past few seasons, and the savvier element of their fan base probably knew before the season started that he may not finish his contract in Chicago.  The White Sox find themselves in the cellar of the AL central, and recently they became one of MLB's first teams to openly declare themselves sellers.  As such, Jesse Crain has become one of their most valuable commodities, and ostensibly he could be an answer to the Braves' issue of bullpen depth. 

Jesse Crain is a righty, dependent upon a fastball that averages 94 mph complimented by a slider and curve.  He has used the curve more this season than in any season past, but it is his least effective offering.  His splits are noticeably better against RHH, particularly with respect to his K/BB (an even 7 against RHH v. 2.57 against LHH).  He does, however, induce a fair amount of grounders against lefties.  While his FIP against RHH is a microscopic .90, it's still a very respectable 2.21 against LHH, so it's not as if he can't get them out.

One of his greatest strengths is his LOB%, as evidenced by the fact that he has stranded 86% of runners on-base in 2013.  Relative to the Braves, that mark would be good for 2nd on the team, behind Craig Kimbrel's ridiculous 97% mark that is good for 4th in MLB.  Crain's strand rate is not an aberration as he has consistently been near that number since the 2011 season.  He also has yet to surrender a HR, and while he's more a flyball-type pitcher, the Braves strong OF defense would theoretically help play to his strengths.

This season marks a walk-year for Crain, whose contract pays him $4.5M.  If the Braves were to trade for him, they'd be on the hook for ~$2M of that, certainly an affordable number.  There are a couple of things working against a trade like this taking place, however.  First, White Sox GM Rick Hahn has made it no secret that his franchise is in full-sell mode, so it's safe to assume a bevy of teams have already inquired about Crain and what it would take to get him.  There's still a few weeks between now and the trade deadline, and many teams have considerably more marginal benefit to gain from adding a player like Crain to their roster.  With the Braves bullpen being the best in baseball, the marginal value of a guy like Crain is minimal relative to these other franchises.  The Braves aren't in a position of desperation with regard to acquiring a reliever, so if the price gets too high, they would almost certainly go another direction.  Also, while Crain's numbers against LHH are good, better than average even, he's still not really a left-handed "specialist", and that's really what Atlanta needs.  Sure, he could do the job, and it would be nice to have him as a 7th-inning option, but the Braves have a very specific need in this area, and all things considered, he may not be the best fit. 

In summation, Jesse Crain would be a definitive upgrade for the Braves bullpen.  Coupled with the addition of Beachy, he could prove pivotal in taking an A bullpen and making it into an A+ bullpen. 

And of course, as soon as I get done writing this, I find out that Jesse Crain was just put on the 15-day DL with a right shoulder sprain.  That's not going to be good for his trade value. 

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