Wednesday, July 24, 2013

State of the NL East: past and present

Five short years ago, the NL East was slowly growing in strength.  The Phillies were World Champions, the Marlins and Mets were respectable, and Atlanta and Washington were putting the pieces together to form the talented teams we know them to be today.  Given the position the franchises found themselves in at this point in time, there was no real reason to think the NL East wouldn't grow stronger.  Through a series of inflated contracts, unfortunate business circumstances, and a general lack of self-awareness (just to name a few), the top three teams from 2008 currently find themselves struggling to keep the pace with the younger, sounder teams fielded by the Braves and Nats. 

At least, that was the narrative before the start of the current season.  The reality is that the entire division has ostensibly taken a step back.  No one expected anything of the Marlins or Mets this year, and rightfully so, as those teams are currently in the bottom-tier in terms of major league talent.  Will it be that way five years from now?  Almost certainly not.  No one really considered the Phillies a serious threat either, save a few die-hard fans, Jon Paul Morosi, and of course, the bumbling array of stooges that comprise the Philadelphia front office.  They're probably in a lot more trouble than many people realize.  Yes, a huge, sexy TV deal is in the works, but as the Angels and Yankees are proving, money doesn't make you an instant-winner.  The fact that Ruben Amaro Jr. is even considering buying pieces to make a playoff run speaks volumes.  Of course, from the perspective of an Atlanta fan, these happenings are the equivalent of finding out that Miguel Cabrera is a closet Braves-o-phile and wants to finish his career in Atlanta while taking zero salary.  

As for the Nationals, 2013 was supposed to be their year.  Many a prognosticator tabbed the Nationals as the favorites in the NL East (the author included), and many more picked them to win the World Series.  At this point the Nationals are fighting to finish above .500, and with August rapidly approaching, the surge so many expected to see is looking less and less likely. 

That's not to say it won't happen.  If the Nats offense can get into gear, they become a very dangerous team.  At this point, with two-thirds of the season in the books, the likelihood of that happening is dwindling rapidly.  Coming out of the All-Star break, the Nationals are 0-5.  They've scored 11 runs in five games, and five of those 11 came in one game.  That may seem like an arbitrary point in time, but there's momentum to be gained coming out of the chute red-hot, and conversely, there's momentum to be lost coming out of the chute and landing with a thud, which is basically what the Nationals have done.  Things don't get any easier for them after their series with Pittsburgh either, as they host a Mets team that is probably playing above its' head before traveling to Detroit to face arguably the best team in the AL.  Can't score runs off Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton?  Good luck scoring off Max Scherzer and Justin friggin' Verlander. 

There have been recent whispers about the Nats selling off pieces and shifting their vision towards 2014.  Rafael Soriano could command a king's ransom given the market for relievers right now, but the Nats are unlikely to make a move with so much invested in being successful this season.  There's not really a reason for them to sell right now, and doing so could cause serious damage from a marketing perspective.  Selling now essentially tells Nats fans that it's ok to hang up their Harper jersey and dust off the RG3 jersey.  They're eight games out, but there's still time to make this race interesting and, potentially, sneak into the playoffs.  After all Soriano can still be traded in August, and if the Nats find themselves in the same position a month from now as the one they're in today, selling will not only be easily justified but also a decision of the highest prudence.  With the Redskins season starting, the PR backlash would be mitigated considerably.

That leaves us with the Braves.  The Braves have held the division at arms' length the entire season, and while they've played .500 ball since their 12-1 start, they are in as enviable a position as any team could hope to be at this point in the season.  The division race is far from over, and there's plenty of time for Washington to get its act together, or for Philadelphia to cast some sort of ancient spell that magically puts them in contention. 

Acquiring a bullpen piece and, perhaps, a bench piece to replace the production of Pena is as far as the Braves need to go in order to position themselves for a quality postseason run.  Despite their mediocre road record and the general flimsiness of divisional opponents, the Braves are in the position they're in because they're a good team that has played good baseball, particularly against the NL East, against whom they have a 22-15 record.  Given the strength of the schedule, the inter-league schedule in particular, and the injuries they've had to overcome, one would be remiss in wanting for a better record, or feeling that the results thus far have somehow fallen short of what this team is truly capable of.

It's curious to hear Braves fans complain about this team.  A common sentiment is that this team "isn't fun to watch".  How a team that has a winning record in one-run games, extra-inning games, and overall, not to mention the plethora of come-from-behind victories snatched from the jaws of defeat, could be a chore to watch simply boggles the mind.  This is a good team, folks.  It's a flawed team too, of that there is no doubt.  But if you're one of those that is having trouble enjoying the product put forth by this franchise on a nightly basis, perhaps being a Braves fan isn't for you.  Go be a Nats fan.

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