Monday, July 29, 2013

Scott Downs is a Brave

The Braves finally pulled the trigger on a left-handed reliever, acquiring Scott Downs from the LA Angels (of Anaheim, brought to you by Disney Land, etc) for minor leaguer Cory Rasmus. 

On its' face, this trade appears to be a win for both clubs.  Downs is a great LOOGY (Lefty One Out GuY) that doesn't cost much money.  Trading him could be an early signal that the Angels are folding on 2013, astonishing as that may seem.  Their return is a guy with a moderately high ceiling - if he can harness his control.  He has considerably more value in Anaheim than he did in Atlanta, but that's more a statement about the depth of Atlanta's minor-league pitching than it is about Rasmus as a player.  If he gets it together, they've got themselves an eighth or ninth inning guy, and considering that they're not a playoff team this season, he could prove to be valuable for them next year and in the future. 

Downs fills a very specific niche in this bullpen: he is the prototypical LOOGY.  He is the answer to facing the Vottos, Beltrans, Harpers, and Adrian Gonzalezs of the world.  His FIP against lefties is 1.95, and his K/BB ratio is 4.67, nearly five times his number against righties.  Most impressively, his GB/FB ratio against lefties is 6.75, and his combined LD/FB% is 25%.  Let that sink in.  That means that if he doesn't strike out or walk a lefty, 75% of the outcomes are ground balls.  Against righties, well, the numbers don't look nearly as sexy, but if he's used properly, that doesn't matter.  

And that's the point.  Downs is a guy that should come into high-leverage situations against lefties.  He should not pitch against righties under any circumstance short of mop-up duty.  

The Braves will likely assume the remainder of the $1.6M owed to Downs, and he is a free agent after this season, meaning he will likely play the part of mercenary.  Kudos to Frank Wren and Co. for what appears to be another shrewd move.

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