Cardinals series preview

No one needs to be reminded of the events that took place one warm Atlanta evening last October, as the Cardinals robbed Chipper Jones and Braves country of the storybook finish that seemed so just and poetic.  The bitter aftertaste of the "Infield Fly" lingers heavy to this day, and the phrase itself seems to have taken on f-bomb status amongst the Braves orthodoxy.  Vindication is paramount.  Yes, it's three games.  Yes, the slope of the hill lessens after this series.  But make no mistake, these games could prove to be indicative of the trajectory this team takes the rest of the way.  It's not a make-or-break series by any means, but taking two of three would go a long way in exorcising the demons that have hovered over this team and this fan base since that God-forsaken abomination of a play-in game. 

In an attempt to maintain as much objectivity as possible, the author was initially tempted to describe St. Louis as "arguably the best team Atlanta will face this season," though making sure to note just how good the Tigers are, suggesting perhaps they are somewhat comparable.  Keen observation of their statistical resumes dispels that notion; the Tigers are not in the same class as the Cardinals.  Right now, no one is.  St. Louis is the prized heavyweight fighter, an elite team that can win a game any number of ways.  They have made short work of the NL Central, a division that stands as the class of the league, second only to the AL East in terms of overall strength. 

The Cardinals are led by the NL's most dynamic offense, but their pitching is just as good.  The stats only reinforce their reputation.  They lead the NL in wOBA, wRC+, OBP, SIERA, FIP, and K/BB.  They rate in the top-tier in a plethora of other statistical categories. They are the total package, a team that will provide a definitive litmus test for the Braves.  One common caveat about the Cardinals performance is their batting average when runners are in scoring position, a .340 clip that bests the second-place Tigers by a full 51 points.  This mark stands as a serious outlier relative to the rest of baseball, and while they are an elite offensive club, it's hard to believe they're that good.

After this series concludes, the Braves will only have seven games left against opponents with records currently over .500; four more in St. Louis and three in Atlanta against a Cleveland team that is far from being the Cards' equal.  Essentially, St. Louis is the last really tough club on the schedule for 2013.  That statement in and of itself should be demonstrative of the type of gauntlet the Braves faced in the first half of the season.

The Pitchers:

Former Brave Adam Wainwright will start Friday night's game.  Wainwright finds himself in the thick of Cy Young award discussion with guys like Matt Harvey and Clayton Kershaw.  He's striking out ~eight per game while walking less than one per nine innings.  He also gives up .35 homers per nine.  He's likely having the best season of his career thus far, a serious accomplishment for a guy who is quietly building an early case for Hall of Fame consideration.  He's a cutter/sinker guy that mixes in a nasty curveball as his ace in the hole.  To think that Wainwright was the key piece that brought J.D. Drew and Eli Marrero to Atlanta is downright nauseating.

Joe Kelly gets the ball Saturday afternoon, and offers a sure-to-be welcomed reprieve from Wainwright.  Kelly has started only three games this season, one at the beginning of June, and two within the last couple of weeks.  His results thus far have been mixed, and consequently, it's tough to tell what to make of him.  He has given up his share of homers, including two in a recent start to the clown-car Marlins.  He features a fastball that lives anywhere from 90-95 mph, complimented by a slider, changeup, and the occasional curve.  He keeps the ball on the ground, but his HR/FB ratio is 15.6%, a mark that would be close to the top amongst active pitchers if Kelly had pitched enough innings to qualify.  He's a feast or famine guy, but he's a guy that should be beatable assuming the Braves put on their hitting attire, be it pants, gloves, shoes, socks, whatever.

Sunday's starter is the much-heralded Shelby Miller, a trendy preseason Rookie of the Year pick for many.  In his first full season at the major league level, Miller has done nothing to diminish the lofty expectations many set for him.  His K/BB ratio is nearly four-to-one, and he doesn't give up many homers.  One good bit of news is that Miller is heavily reliant on the fastball, typically a four-seamer that sits around 94 mph.  He also features a strong curve and serviceable changeup.  It's worth noting that July has been his worst month, as his BB% has ticked up a bit along with his HR/9.  This will be his first appearance against Atlanta, and his fastball-heavy repertoire could play favorably against an adequate fastball-hitting Braves team.

Series matchups:

Friday, 7:30 (local broadcast and MLB Network)

Adam Wainwright v. Mike Minor

Saturday, 3:05 (FOX national broadcast)

Joe Kelly v. Julio Teheran

Sunday, 8:00 (ESPN national broadcast)

Shelby Miller v. Kris Medlen

(Stats via FanGraphs)