Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Trade targets

With the trade deadline a little over a week away, rumors are heating up.  The Braves have made no secret about being in the market for a left-handed reliever.  Couple that with Alex Wood's potentially permanent transition into the rotation and one could infer that the chances of a deal occurring appear to be approaching an absolute certainty.

So far, Glen Perkins, Kevin Gregg, and Jesse Crain have been profiled by the author, but their situations have evolved somewhat since those profiles were written.  Glen Perkins is apparently coveted by the Twins, and they have held firm in their stance of keeping him in Minnesota.  Whether that's posturing or the truth is impossible to discern, but at this point he doesn't appear to be available.  Kevin Gregg has come back to earth considerably since his red-hot start, so while his asking price is probably lower, he's not a dominant shutdown-type the Braves need.  Jesse Crain is still on the DL, and will likely make a rehab appearance or two before coming back.  He may be an August trade candidate, but Atlanta does not appear to be a good fit for his services.

So where does that leave us?  ESPN's Jim Bowden passed along some information on Twitter earlier:



Jim Bowden is typically well-informed about this sort of thing, seeing as how he was once a GM.  He likely would not have tweeted specific names without feeling confident about the information.  While there are surely names he is not privy to (or chose not to share for whatever reason), the aforementioned names fall in-line with what many expected to see the Braves chasing.  Let's start by analyzing the first name on the list: Oliver Perez. 

Oliver Perez is most likely to be remembered by Braves fans as a starter for the Mets from 2007-2010.  After struggling mightily toward the end of his Mets career, Perez wandered from the Nationals' AA-affiliate to Seattle's minor league system, eventually landing himself a spot on the major league roster as a setup man/LOOGY.  In so doing, Perez has breathed new life into his career, posting a 2.93 FIP in 33 games in 2012, and a 3.04 FIP in 39 appearances thus far in 2013.  This is mostly attributable to the uptick in his K%, which improved to 33.6% in 2013 from his career average of 23%.  His BB% has fluctuated slightly, his BABIP of .316 doesn't indicate luck on his behalf, and his batted ball rates seem to confirm that, as his LD% sits at ~20%, right at league average. 

Part of Perez's resurgence can be attributed his mastering of a sinker that sits around 92-93 MPH, a pitch he did not begin to throw regularly until 2012.  He compliments it with a hard slider and the occasional changeup.  He is generating more swinging strikes and considerably less contact on balls both in and out of the zone, exactly what one would hope to see from a lefty reliever. 

Perez signed a one-year, $1.5M deal with the Mariners last November, and if he were traded to the Braves, they would be on the hook for ~$500K of that money.  The Braves should be able to acquire him for relatively little cost to the franchise in terms of prospect considerations, and given his performance against a tough AL West division, his skill set should transition well to a weaker NL East.  Acquiring him and putting him in Avilan's role makes a lot of sense. 

(Stats courtesy of FanGraphs)

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