Looking ahead: pitching

The 2013 version of the Braves pitching staff has played a crucial role in the team's ascent to a 54-win first half.  All the peripherals point to sustained dominance over the course of the second half.  Make no mistake: the position the team finds itself in is nothing short of a luxury.  The Braves have used six starters through the first 95 games, and will use a seventh at some point when Beachy is able to return.  Getting a guy like Beachy added to the rotation mid-season is essentially the equivalent of the Braves trading for a top-end starter and a top-end reliever, as the person Beachy replaces will likely find themselves pitching high-leverage innings out of the bullpen.

The rumor mill has been very active with regard to the Braves rotation.  Some have speculated that Tim Hudson will be moved, but that seems unlikely, as he wouldn't fetch much return and can help this team win in 2013.  Not only that, but what little trade value he had has been diminished by a shaky performance thus far.  Others say Kris Medlen or Beachy himself will pitch out of the pen, scenarios that seem to be the most plausible.  A recent musing put forth by Mark Bowman states that Alex Wood may be a candidate to join the rotation.  This seems like a curious decision, but Bowman is very tuned in with the team, so there's a good chance of fire with this smoke.  Given the information available to assess the situation, this move seems a little strange.  After all the starters have performed very well, and replacing the weakest link with a proven starter like Beachy makes sense, a scenario will almost certainly come to fruition.  Replacing the second-weakest link with a 2012 draft pick that has one major league start doesn't seem to be as safe a bet, not because Wood isn't a good pitcher, but because he has little experience, and his value would likely only be marginally better than his predecessor if we're being rational about expectation levels.  This is an issue many in Braves Country will be watching very closely.  Were it anyone other than Bowman or another media figure with similar standing, the author would look upon the notion with severe incredulity.

The bullpen will likely look different two weeks from now.  In addition to the potential insertion of Medlen/Beachy/player X, the Braves have been scouring the trade market for a left-handed reliever.  Glen Perkins seems to be the top choice, but if Minnesota's recent posturing is any indication, he will remain with the Twins.  According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Cubs' James Russell and Brewers' Mike Gonzalez are also high on the Braves' wish list, but they form only a portion of an extensive (and underwhelming) list of lefty relievers who could be made available for trade.  At this point, it seems clear that it's not so much a matter of if Atlanta will make a move, but when. 

If the emergence of guys like Minor, Beachy, Medlen, Kimbrel, and Teheran tells us anything, it's that there's little reason to question the rationale of the Atlanta's organizational pitching orthodoxy. 

Here's a ranking of the starters and relievers as the author views them, according to expectation levels going forward

Starters:

Minor
Medlen
Teheran
(big gap)
Beachy
Hudson
Maholm

Relievers:

Kimbrel
Walden
(huge gap)
Wood
Carpenter/Avilan
Ayala
Varvaro