Uggla's value

With the conclusion of July, Dan Uggla's five-year, $62M contract enters the second half of its' lifespan.  Up to this point, the reviews have not been kind, as Uggla has found himself the focal point of many a fan's angst.  Whether it's his batting average, the high strikeouts, the sub-par defense in the field, the guy just can't seem to catch a break with a fan base that was so eager to embrace him in 2011.  Does that matter?  Of course not, because most fans are, ahem, not in a position to make an objective valuation of a player anyway.

It's typical of the casual fan to look at his batting average and say "hey, he's only hitting .202, let's trade him!"  It's not that they intentionally ignore the myriad of other statistics that paint a clearer picture, it's that they're largely unaware of the degree to which they can be relied upon.  In the case of Uggla, one look at his traditional stats would lead one to believe that he's a below-average player.  This assumption is invalid.

Through today, Uggla has amassed exactly seven wins-above-replacement during two-and-a-half seasons of starting at 2B for Atlanta.  In other words, he has been worth seven more wins than a player of lesser, or "replacement-level", ability.  Those wins have a value that can be translated into dollars, and without getting too technical, the commonly accepted dollar amount for a win in this scenario is ~$5M, a number that fluctuates with the inflation/deflation of contracts and other financial interests.  For example, Mike Trout was worth 10 wins-above-replacement in 2012, a value of $50M.  Yet, he only received $500K in compensation, leaving the Angels with a surplus value of $49.5M.  Conversely, Josh Hamilton has been worth half a win thus far in 2013, but he will make ~$17.5M, leaving the Angels with a $2.5M deficit.  With regard to Uggla, after taking the accepted dollar value of a win ($5M) and multiplying it by the number of wins Uggla has been valued at during his time in Atlanta (seven wins), we end up with ~$35M, a little over half of the total value of his contract.  That's not superstar production by any means, and it's likely not the level of production that Frank Wren had in mind when he signed Uggla, but it's better than what the Braves were getting from Brooks Conrad and Omar Infante.

Uggla is 33 years old, and there's a good chance that this will be his best season as a Brave.  It's rare for a 2B to age well, particularly one whose power is his main asset.  Jeff Kent did, but he's the exception to the rule.  The days of Uggla hitting .280 are long gone, but if he can hit 30+ home runs and get on base via walks, that's a valuable player.  Unfortunately for him, most fans will remember him for falling short of their expectations, expectations that they would likely have a hard time explaining/justifying if they were ever pressed to do so. 

At the end of 2015, Uggla will likely walk and take a flyer with an AL team, perhaps as a DH.  Barring an unforeseen collapse in his skill set, he will likely do so having earned every penny of the $62M owed to him throughout the life of his contract.  He will also likely be the butt of many a joke told by the unwashed masses, but $62M has a way of taking the sting out of criticism.