Looking ahead: offense

The Braves offense has seemed most sporadic thus far in 2013, but probably not to the extent that many would like to believe.  The team wRC+ has fluctuated from 109 in April, to 101 in both May and June, to 111 so far in July, good for a 105 team wRC+ on the season which ranks 7th in MLB and 2nd in the NL to the Cardinals.  The team is also 10th in wOBA, 6th in ISO, 8th in OBP, 4th in BB%, 10th in wRAA, and perhaps most interestingly, 2nd in HR/FB% at 13.7%.  The MLB-leading Orioles rank 1st at 14.1%, and it should be considered moderately impressive that anyone is even close to them considering their lineup and home park factors.

Consider as well that BJ, Heyward, McCann, Freeman, Uggla, and Justin have all at one time or another been slumping badly or on the DL.  That's not to mention Simmons' poor performance at the plate.  Much of the issue has been mitigated by a bench that could be the best in baseball.  Setting the minimum amount of PAs at 75 (in other words, Schafer/Francisco/Gattis/Laird/Pena/Johnson), the group averages a wRC+ of 118, a wOBA of .341, an OBP of .339 and an ISO of .170.  Based on those stats alone, the level of production is essentially akin to a level above Heyward but below Justin spread across 746 PAs, nearly double the 400 that team-leader Andrelton Simmons has accumulated.

If we act under the assumption that the Braves "true talent level" is a wRC+ of ~105, with a standard deviation of ~5 either way, one should feel confident in Atlanta's ability to hold their division lead throughout the remaining 67 games.  Remember, wRC+ is an index statistic, meaning that 100 is league-average, and a point fluctuation either way is 1% (+/-) above or below league-average.  For the season, the team wRC+ is 105, ie the offense has been 5% more productive than league-average.   The Nationals season-average for wRC+ is 88, meaning their offense has performed 12% below league-average.

As has been written about previously, the team K% has fallen month-over-month since April, a trend that seems to go unnoticed when the topic of the Braves' offense has come up in media circles.  Ostensibly this could be an indication that "productive outs" have increased, and anecdotal evidence seems to confirm that, but alas, there is no stat available to track them due to their normative nature.  For those of us that watch most every game, it is more apparent than to those who simply check a box score or watch Sportscenter.  Media outlets that espouse such nonsensical glossing-over of meaningful data points and events are unworthy of the first ear.  The Braves most consistent offensive games are ahead of them, not behind.  The recent performance is probably a good indication of what it will look like.  That's something to be excited about. 

(Stats via FanGraphs)