Fast-forward to present day, and Simmons has converted even the most incredulous observer. Though statistics on fielding are still in their infancy and aren't nearly as infallible as batting data, one in particular stands out: a plus/minus stat (+/-) known as DRS, or Defensive Runs Saved. In broad terms, DRS is:
“…as I understand it, the numbers determines (using film study and computer comparisons) how many more or fewer successful plays a defensive player will make than league average. For instance, if a shortstop makes a play that only 24% of shortstops make, he will get .76 of a point (1 full point minus .24). If a shortstop BLOWS a play that 82% of shortstops make, then you subtract .82 of a point. And at the end, you add it all up and get a plus/minus.” (Joe Posnanski, Sports Illustrated)
DRS has existed in its' current form since 2003; before that, it was known as "Total Zone", a metric for which data goes all the way back to before the live-ball era. Darin Erstad is the all-time leader in this category, posting a +39 TZ/DRS playing CF for the Angels in 2002. To keep it in a Braves-centric context, Andruw Jones' best year in terms of TZ/DRS was 1999, when he was worth +37. Andrelton Simmons enters today's play with +37, meaning that he is almost certain to shatter Erstad's record. FanGraphs' writer Jeff Sullivan had this to say about Simmons (the entire article can be read here):
"If you sort everyone by Total Zone per 150 games, we find Simmons highest all-time, a few runs ahead of 2009 Jack Wilson among shortstops. This, right here, is the argument for Simmons having the best defensive season ever. We don’t have quality all-time defensive data, but the data we do have says Simmons is unbelievable."
As a player, Andrelton's WAR-value is derived from three main components: hitting (wRAA), baserunning (UBR and wSB), and fielding (UZR). Simmons hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboards with the bat this season, carrying a into today's action a wRAA of -11.2, indicative of a hitter that is below replacement-level. To give some context to this ambiguous number, BJ Upton's offensive performance has been worth -16.8 wRAA. If Simmons offensive performance matched BJ's output so far this season (.186/.269/.299), he would still have positive WAR-value.
Think about that for a minute. Hypothetically Simmons could be one of the worst offensive performers in the game among qualified hitters, but because his defense is so spectacular, he would be still be more valuable than just about any Braves' player. There isn't much room between him and the bottom of the league in terms of offensive output, so that hypothetical isn't far away from this season's reality. Any contribution he can make offensively is literally icing on the cake.
The true test for Andrelton is whether or not he can sustain this high level of performance. Defense is usually a skill that peaks early thanks to the body's propensity to wear-down with age. That's what made Ozzie Smith so special: he performed in an elite tier defensively for so long. Only time will tell if Andrelton can keep this up. Fortunately, his offensive profile will likely improve, even if it does so marginally. He's probably never going to be a serious power threat, but he can drive the ball with authority, and he does a great job making contact. Going into 2014, if he can improve his plate discipline and make some headway with the bat, even if his ceiling is that of a replacement-level player, his value to the team and as a commodity will skyrocket. While we're still probably at least one or two more seasons away from having a clearer understanding of the kind of player Simmons is/can be, the leading indicators are very encouraging.
Here are five gifs to make Simba's case, in case you didn't click on the FanGraphs article above:
(Stats and Info via Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs and Fielding Bible)
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