Nationals series preview

The first series in 2013 between Atlanta and Washington took place in Washington from April 12-14.  No one could have known at the time that the series would prove to be a microcosm for the Nats' entire season.  Paltry offense, porous defense, and untimely pitching woes were their undoing during that series and have proceeded to undermine their entire season. 

This is it for Washington.  This series is their season.  At least, they're probably convincing themselves of that.  They have to.  To come out on the other side of this series with a double-digit deficit potentially seals their fate as one of the more memorable disappointments in recent baseball history.  To trim Atlanta's lead to 9.5 games (which would require a sweep) would be provide a much-need morale boost, but even then, the likelihood of making up that deficit is remote. 

Coming into today's game, Washington's playoff odds stand at 4.8%, a number that combines their odds of winning the division (0.1%) and the wild card (4.7%).  Given the strength of the NL Central teams, not to mention the Nationals season-long ineptitude insofar as winning is concerned, the smart money is on Washington missing the playoffs entirely.  FanGraphs projects them to go 27-24 the rest of the way, a reasonable forecast that would put them right at .500 (81-81) for the season.  The 2nd wild card team will likely need ~87 wins, which would require Washington to play 33-18 ball for the rest of the season.  On paper this seems feasible, but they have given no indication at any point that they're capable of playing at that level for a sustained stretch.  They're almost certainly done in 2013, and it's not entirely due to their poor play; Atlanta has been a much better team from the outset.

The Pitchers:

Stephen Strasburg gets the start in tonight's game in the midst of another fine season, though he has not achieved the levels of dominance that many have come to expect.  While his strikeouts are down slightly from last year, his velocity has not changed in an appreciable way, and his walks have been stable.  He has been getting more ground balls at the expense of line drives, and he's remained stingy with homers, allowing less than one per nine innings.  He has fared well against the Braves in 2013, going at least six innings in two of three starts (he was pulled with injury during his most recent start on May 31).  Though he doesn't walk many, Atlanta's patient lineup can and has worked him for a few free passes before, specifically during his April 29 start during which he issued four walks in six innings.

Game two features Gio Gonzalez, a guy the Braves have had little issue with in recent times.  Gonzalez's peripherals are almost identical to last year's, except his HR/FB ratio, which has doubled.  Like Strasburg, he has faced Atlanta three times this season, but he has not fared as well as his counterpart.  He is notorious for having control issues and has given up at least one BB in all of his starts so far in 2013.  His most recent start against Detroit saw him implode, allowing ten earned runs and eleven hits in three and a third innings.  When he's on, he's as good a lefty as there is.  When he's not, he's his own worst enemy.

One of the league's most unheralded pitchers goes in game three, in the form of Jordan Zimmerman.  He's having a very strong year and is establishing himself as the unsung ace of the staff.  He features a strong fastball mixed with an array of offspeed stuff highlighted by a wipe out curve.  He has faced Atlanta once this season, pitching an eight inning masterpiece of two-hit, no-run ball.  He has been a model of consistency throughout the season, with his only major blemish a blowout loss to the Dodgers a couple of weeks ago.   

 Series matchups:

Tonight, 7:05 (local broadcast)

Mike Minor v. Stephen Strasburg

Tuesday, 7:05 (local broadcast and MLB Network)

Julio Teheran v. Gio Gonzalez

Wednesday, 7:05 (local broadcast)

Kris Medlen v. Jordan Zimmerman

Tonight's lineup:

Heyward
Justin
Freeman
McCann
Johnson
Uggla
BJ
Simmons

Regardless of the outcome of this series, one thing is certain: after this season, the words "World Series or bust!" will become as taboo in Washington as "Infield Fly" is in Atlanta.  

(Stats and info via Baseball Prospectus, Hit Tracker Online, and FanGraphs)