When people discuss the Braves, or at least the current version of the Braves, the offense is always the focal point of the conversation. This stands in stark contrast to recent history, as the Braves' franchise has more or less become synonymous with excellent pitching thanks in part to the glory days of Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz, but also because the Braves have done an incredible job developing pitchers lately. Minor, Teheran, Beachy, Medlen, and Wood are all home-grown talent, and the pipeline is still flowing. While the bullpen was assumed to be the best in the game going into this season, the starting pitching was a bit of a question mark, and rightfully so. Last season left many questions unanswered: how much does Huddy have left? How severely will Kris Medlen regress? Is Mike Minor capable of being good for a full season? Will Teheran ever live up to the hype?
Anyone that doubted the ability of this starting rotation, or the ability of this franchise to find, develop, and leverage pitching talent, must feel foolish. The Braves come into today with a starters' ERA of 3.58, an FIP of 3.62, an xFIP of 3.66, a tERA of 4.15, and perhaps most telling, a SIERA of 3.78. Those aren't league-leading numbers (though they do rank in the upper-third of all MLB teams), but they are likely on the high-end of a reasonable person's expectations for this pitching staff coming into this season.
There are two major caveats to consider when reviewing those numbers. First and foremost, the Braves' bullpen is at or very near the top in nearly all the major statistical categories. While the bullpen's impact on a team isn't even close to the impact of the starters, it still affords Atlanta some marginal leeway as it relates to performance. Luckily, they don't need it. Although they trail a few teams in the rankings, the numbers speak for themselves; this pitching staff has the potential to be as good as any. Except for Detroit. The Tigers have a once-in-a-generation staff this season. But this isn't a Tigers' blog.
The second caveat to consider is how the faces in the rotation have changed recently. Hudson is done. Maholm won't throw in a meaningful sense for another week at least. For most teams, losing those two would be a death sentence. Enter Brandon Beachy and Alex Wood. Everyone knows what Beachy can do, the question is, what will he do? Beachy should be able to pitch to a ~3.75 ERA/FIP/SIERA for the rest of this season, tuning up for a big 2014 campaign. Anything more is icing on the cake. As for Wood, it's hard to know what to expect for the rest of the year, but his performance thus far has given reason for optimism. If he can make a few more quality starts between now and Maholm's return, Fredi may have a hard time supplanting him in the rotation. In a worst-case scenario, Paul Maholm comes back and does his best pre-injury-Paul Maholm impression for the rest of the season. Hey, it worked up to this point, and it's not like he'll be starting in games in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Alex goes back to the bullpen, making a spot-start here and there for Teheran and Beachy, as the former has never pitched more than 144 innings (he's at 143 right now) and the latter is probably touch-and-go at this early stage of his return, though his last two starts have pacified some concerns.
Mike Minor and Julio Teheran have been the steadiest, most consistent contributors on the staff so far, perhaps even on the entire team. If you go by the "traditional" stats, their performances appear to have many similarities. Dig a little deeper, and the difference becomes clear. Though Teheran's performance has definitely been a sight for sore eyes, he hasn't quite performed up to the level of Minor. That's not to say his showing in 2013 should be considered a disappointment. Many of his peripherals are trending in the right direction; his swinging-strike rate is 10.3%, a career-best, and he's generated less contact on balls in and out of the zone while the amount of swings taken against him have remained constant. It's worth keeping in mind that Julio has done all of this while utilizing arguably his best pitch, his changeup, very little relative to his earlier minor league career. The changeup is the ultimate "feel" pitch, and although we haven't seen it much this season (~5% of his total pitches), don't be surprised if he works it into the repertoire in 2014. Were there not such an exceptionally strong rookie class in the NL Teheran would likely be a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate, but given the performances of guys like Matt Harvey and Jose Fernandez, Teheran has found himself an afterthought in the conversation.
As many people expected prior to the start of the season, Mike Minor has been the closest
thing to an "ace" as Atlanta has on the roster. He has been way ahead
of the ZiPS projections, and is establishing himself as one the
NL's top lefties. His 3.2 fWAR is tops on the team regardless of
position, and ranks 16th among all starting pitchers, ahead of names
like Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Stephen Strasburg. His 3.09 FIP leads
the starters on a top staff, and while he's not a "true ace", he's well
on his way to becoming one. He should eclipse 200 innings in the
regular season, and he's a sure bet to start game one of the NLDS.
Collectively, this staff (bullpen included) is probably the best one Braves fans have seen since 1998. The starting staff doesn't quite measure up to that '98 squad when you isolate their performance from the bullpen, but it's probably the 2nd best staff since '98, and certainly no lower than 3rd. This season, they've got a good argument for being the best staff in the NL, high praise considering the staffs in St. Louis, Pittsburgh, and Los Angeles. Mike Minor is at the forefront of that, and thusly, deserves consideration when determining this team's MVP.
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