Friday, August 16, 2013

Nationals series preview and a note on The Rev

The misfortune of Washington's season is well-known at this point, so I won't bore you rehashing it.  They're probably baseball's biggest disappointment this season.  Until recently, any lingering frustration that existed in their clubhouse was kept well under wraps, out of the public eye.  Then, during Tuesday's 4-2 win over the Giants, this happened:


Apparently, Jayson took issue with Gio's "hustle" on a potential double-play ball, but that's just symptomatic of a larger issue.  This team is frustrated, and they know full well that as the air gets colder, the prospect of golf in October becomes increasingly more tangible.  And to think, this happened after the Nats had won three games in a row!  Next time they drop a series, Werth will probably spread a vicious rumor about Gio's stock of hair gel, or Gio will put gum in Jayson's beard, maybe even make a "Duck Dynasty" joke. 

Speaking of streaks, the Nats would be entering this series having won six straight had Rafael Soriano not blown a save yesterday to San Francisco.  They have played much better ball since opening the second half with six consecutive losses, but they are showing themselves to be a clear step below the games' elite teams, having been swept soundly by both Detroit and Atlanta during that time span.  Regardless of how good or bad they play out the next six weeks, their season is almost certainly over.  They enter today's play with a 1.6% chance of making the playoffs, all of those odds attributable to winning a wild card spot, according to Baseball Prospectus. 

The Pitchers:

Rookie Taylor Jordan makes his first trip to Turner Field tonight, he of the somewhat sizable skewness between ERA (4.14) and FIP (3.48), an indication that he has perhaps fallen victim to the mishaps of a Nats defense that is well below league-average, having racked up negative 25 (-25!) DRS over the course of the season.  Jordan has never posted eye-popping K-rates, but he has been a quality control guy.  He generates a lot of ground balls and doesn't give up many homers.  He features a fastball that sits in the low 90's, a slider, curve, and change.  Atlanta has feasted on rookies at times this season, especially the second and third time through the order, but Jordan has given Washington quality innings.  Most of those innings came against the woefully inept offenses of the Marlins, Brewers, Phillies, and Mets though, so tonight will be a big test for him against an AL-style offense in a hostile environment (and an unseasonably cool one at that). 

Stephen Strasburg takes the mound in game two.  Strasburg has been tough on the Braves this year, throwing at least six innings and holding them to two runs or less in all starts save for May 31, when he left in the 2nd inning due to injury.  Strasburg is a classic case of why win-loss records for pitchers literally, literally, do not matter.  While this hasn't been his most dominant season, he would still be the best pitcher on just about any staff in baseball, Atlanta included.  For a more in-depth analysis, click here

The aforementioned Gio Gonzalez goes in game three, a guy Atlanta has hit hard historically.  His line from his first two starts of 2013 against the Braves: 9 IP, 14 H, 12 ER, 1 HR, 8 BB, 12 Ks.  His latter two starts this season have been much more effective, but he's still a somewhat high-strung guy that can be had mentally, not unlike Matt Garza.  Still, he's one of the better lefties in the NL, so when he's on, he's as good as anyone.

Series matchups:

Tonight, 7:30 (local broadcast and MLB Network)

Taylor Jordan v. Alex Wood

Saturday, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Stephen Strasburg v. Mike Minor (love it)

Sunday, 1:35 (local broadcast)

Gio Gonzalez v. Julio Teheran (love it more)

Tonight's lineup:

Heyward 9
Upton 7
Freeman 3
McCann 2
Johnson 5
Schafer 8
Simmons 6
Janish 4

**A note on Pastornicky: according to Dave O'Brien's Twitter, The Rev will undergo season-ending surgery for a torn ACL.  I hate to see anyone get hurt, and this isn't meant to "call him out", but with all due respect, he never should have been on that ball.  I'm not convinced his instincts are where they need to be for a middle infielder.  With that said, I hope he is able to bounce back in a big way in 2014 and wish him nothing but the best.

(Stats and Info via Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, and ESPN)

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