The Braves look to continue their winning ways against the rival Phillies, with the teams set up to play three at Turner Field before Washington comes calling.
The wheels have officially come off the wagon for Philadelphia, as they've played pitiful baseball since the All-Star break and have fallen 13.5 games further out of first during that time, leaving them at 19.5 games out of first entering today's action. The Phillies' starters have posted a collective 6.55 ERA since the break, easily the worst in baseball, and considering Cole Hamels' ERA is 2.67 over that span, one can truly start to appreciate just how bad the rest of the rotation has been.
This season has been a nightmare for the Philly faithful who entered 2013 with an optimistic eye. The positives have been few and far between. Most frustrating is Ruben Amaro Jr/ownership's refusal to cash in some of their older, more expensive trade chips for younger, though perhaps more volatile, pieces that could pay dividends in the future. The franchise entered 2013 with a vision of making the playoffs, and when those hoped were dashed and reality set in, instead of realigning expectations and being self-aware, the Phillies doubled-down. Since the trade deadline, they're 2-8; since the All-Star break, they're 4-17. And they're keeping all the players that made that possible, save for Delmon Young, who really has no business playing professional baseball anyway.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: if you're a Braves fan like me, all of this should read as music to your ears. The longer and more complicated this rebuilding process becomes for the Phillies, the better off we are. The positive gains from being injected with shiny new TV-deal monies are mitigated considerably when the order of the house is in a state of disarray; some of that money will have to go towards cleaning up the mess, yet another in a long list of inefficiencies that the Phillies will have to contend with in the future.
The Pitchers:
Cole Hamels is not having the type of season he'd hoped to have in year one of his six-year, $144M contract. That's not to say that he hasn't been pitching well (he has), but he hasn't reached the levels of dominance he has previously achieved, not to mention he has fallen victim to terrible run support and a bullpen that has blown many a lead. His fastball hasn't dominated the way it has in previous years, nor has his cutter or curveball. He has not faced the Braves since Opening Day when he surrendered seven hits, three earned runs, a walk and a homer to Justin Upton. He has pitched at least seven innings in every start except for one since the beginning of July. Though his peripheral stats have regressed slightly in 2013, Hamels is still a top-tier lefty, and he's a good bet to bounce back to an elite level next season.
The name Ethan Martin should stir up a vague memory or two for most Braves fans, seeing as how he made his major league debut against them ten short days ago. During that start, he last four and a third innings, allowing eight hits, six earned runs, two homers (McCann and Chris Johnson), and walking three. His only other start came against the Cubs, a game that saw him have considerably more success, as he allowed only one earned run and four hits over five innings to a powerful Cubs offense. Still, he walked three, and as his minor league résumé indicates, control is not something that comes easy for this kid. On paper, this is the most winnable game of the series, which probably means that he'll end up throwing a no-hitter.
Game three features John Lannan, the notorious Braves-killer. Lannan's last start against the Braves came on August 3, a game in which he allowed two earned runs on four hits whilst walking two. Unfortunately for Lannan, things went from bad to worse in his next start, during which he lasted five innings while getting shelled for eight runs on nine hits, including two homers, not to mention five free passes. It's worth noting that Lannan made his start against Atlanta on three-days rest, and while it's impossible to know how the short break affected him, pitchers are notorious for being creatures of habit. Though the sample-size is limited to two starts, Lannan's performance since that hiccup in the rotation has been exceptionally horrific.
Serires matchups:
Tonight, 7:10 (local broadcast)
Julio Teheran v. Cole Hamels
Tuesday, 7:10 (local broadcast)
Kris Medlen v. Ethan Martin
Wednesday, 7:10 (local broadcast)
Brandon Beachy v. John Lannan
Tonight's lineup:
Heyward 9
Justin 7
Freeman 3
McCann 2
Johnson 5
Uggla 4
BJ 8
Simmons 6
**Quick note on Paul Maholm: he pitched six simulated innings recently and there have been no reports of any ill-effects. Fredi Gonzalez said it would likely be at least another week before he saw any live action. It's safe to assume he will make at least one rehab start, if not more.
(Stats and info via FanGraphs and Crashburn Alley)
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