Phillies series preview (updated)

Fresh off a 7-0 homestand, the Braves find themselves right back on the road again to face a Phillies team that, for all intents and purposes, is on its' last leg.  The dynamic in this series stands in stark contrast to the last time these teams met in the city of brotherly love, as the Phillies have gone 2-10 since the All-Star break and now find themselves well outside the realm of contending for a playoff spot.  A month ago, the Phillies used their series win against Atlanta as a springboard to a sweeping first half finish, a run that put them in second place ahead of the Nationals and espoused the notion that this aging core had one more run left in it.

Well, the aging core doesn't have another run in it, and their disastrous second-half start only goes to confirm that.  Many believed that Utley, Papelbon, Lee, and Michael Young would find themselves in different uniforms by the time tonight's game rolled around, but they remain inexplicably bonded thanks to a GM that appears to be living in a fantasy land.  Sure, teams can still make trades in August, and there's a good chance that Michael Young still gets traded, but the longer the inevitable is postponed, the fewer buyers there will be when the time finally does come to make a deal.  Fewer buyers means less competition, and less competition for the services of an aging player means fewer commodities are commanded in return for his services.

As it relates to the Braves, this is wonderful news.  Here's what we should be hoping for from the Phillies going forward: an August surge that propels them back into the NL wild card discussion, only to be followed by a September collapse that occurs late enough so as to prohibit them from receiving any substantive return for their valuable trade chips.  Add to that a winter that sees Ruben Amaro Jr.'s contract extended and, well, now we're just being greedy.

This series is not nearly as important as it would be were the Phillies still in the race, but making headway towards a .500 record on the road is important.  This stadium plays smaller than most parks, and the Braves need to take advantage of that. 

The Pitchers:

Ethan Martin will make his major league debut tonight, starting in place of Cliff Lee who is day-to-day with a sore neck (side note: the Braves have had a ton of luck missing other team's aces this season.  I'm looking at you, Kershaw).  There isn't much information available about Martin, but his performance as an Iron Pig (Lehigh Valley, AAA) has not been particularly impressive, and his control does appear to be an issue, as he has allowed 5.21 BB/9 at the AAA level.  He'll probably throw a shutout.

Game two of the series has no starter listed for the Phillies.  It's Jonathan Pettibone's spot in the rotation, but he too is injured and on a day-to-day basis, so this one is up in the air.  He may be able to start it, or if Cliff Lee is up to it, he may get the nod.

John Lannan will start the Sunday night Saturday afternoon game.  Lannan has pitched very well against the Braves in the past few years, all of those starts coming as a member of the Nationals' starting rotation.  He has gone at least five innings in all of his starts against the Braves dating back to the start of the 2011 season, and has not given up more than three earned runs in any of those starts.  He has been a net-positive for this Phillies rotation in 2013, and his FIP on the season is an impressive 3.37.  He is a ground ball pitcher that relies primarily on a fastball that sits in the high-80s mixed with a good curveball and changeup. 

Cliff Lee takes the mound for game three.   He has been as good as ever, but he's always hit or miss against the Braves.  So much for dodging aces. 

Series matchups:

Tonight, 7:05 (local broadcast)

Kris Medlen v. Ethan Martin

Saturday, 4:05 (FOX national broadcast)

Brandon Beachy v. John Lannan

Sunday, 8:00 (ESPN national broadcast)

Alex Wood v. Cliff Lee

(Info courtesy of FanGraphs and Hit Tracker Online)