Thursday, August 8, 2013

Checking in on the offense

All stats are post All-Star break unless otherwise specified.

Offense (as a team) in the 20 games since the All-Star break:

.275/.343/.422

wRC+: 113

K: 19.7%, BB: 8%, BB/K: .40

wOBA: .336

ISO: .147

BABIP: .322

Batted ball data:

LD-20.6%
GB-45.3%
FB-34.1%
HR/FB-12.9%

Summary: Not many surprises here.  The K% is continuing to fall as it has since the start of the season.  The BB/K ratio is roughly season-average, as is the BABIP.  Couple that with a LD% and HR/FB ratio that is slightly below the season-average for this team, and you find yourself looking at an offense that has been producing at a high level without (collectively) relying upon lady luck to fill any voids.  The power has fallen off slightly, likely due to the recent struggles of Dan Uggla, Evan Gattis, and the amount of playing time Terdoslavich and Johnson received due to BJ Upton's injury.  The OBP is higher than average, likely due to Heyward's emergence in the leadoff spot, Chris Johnson's league-leading hitting, and Simmons receiving fewer at-bats, among other things.

The top individual performers (in descending order):

Justin Upton - 342/402/582
Freddie Freeman - 324/400/500
Jason Heyward - 281/406/474
Chris Johnson - 370/407/457

BJ Upton would be on this list, at the top of it no less, were his performance not limited to five games and 23 plate appearances.  A triple slash of 476/522/571 and wRC+ of 213 looks amazing, but some of the shine comes off when the sample size is taken into account.  With that said, he appears to be on the verge of being, uh, the opposite of what he was.

The solid contributors (in descending order):

Andrelton Simmons - 256/307/451
Brian McCann - 231/306/446

Simba's performance is actually an improvement over his season numbers, believe it or not.  Combined with his defensive contributions, his output level leaves little to be desired, especially now that he's in the eight-hole, a place his bat plays very well.  McCann is currently plagued by a drop in LD%, but the power is still there.  He will be fine.  

Below-average performers (in descending order):

Dan Uggla - 151/279/301
Evan Gattis - 246/269/308

Uggla has seen a serious uptick in his GB% which, when combined with a very low BABIP, equates to poor offensive performance.  He's also not walking the way he had been, but that will likely change as plate discipline is not a skill one loses this late in one's career.  It may be wise to drop him in the lineup until he figures things out.  As for Gattis, his power has fallen off the radar, and with Terdoslavich hitting well, he doesn't figure to get many at-bats in the outfield.  The book is out on him throughout the league, so just as pitchers have adjusted to him, he'll need to adjust to the pitchers. 

(Stats via FanGraphs)

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