Sunday, August 11, 2013

Plate Discipline and the Braves

Much has been made of the evolution of the Braves' offense.  They have matured from a HR-dependent approach to a more diversified, well-rounded brand of run production.  Their methods are unorthodox but leave little to be desired, as they enter today's game the NL's second-best offense behind the St. Louis Cardinals. 




MLB ranks in the above categories:

O-Swing % (outside the zone swing %) - 16th
Z-Swing % (inside the zone swing %) - 4th
Swing % (cumulative swing %) - 11th
O-Contact % - 25th
Z-Contact % - 30th
Contact % - 29th
Zone % (% of total pitches seen in the strike zone) - 23rd
F-Strike % (first-pitch strike %) - 13th
SwStr % (% of swinging strikes from total strikes) - 2nd


Reviewing the plate discipline stats of the Braves - if it's in the zone, they're going to swing, and when they swing, they're swinging for the fences.  They don't make much contact, but when they do, it's perhaps pound-for-pound the strongest offense in baseball.  They're selective enough to be able to maintain the third-highest OBP and second-highest BB% in the NL, so the negative effects from the lack of contact aren't felt to their fullest extent.

Relative to the NL's other top offensive teams - the aforementioned Cardinals and the LA Dodgers - the Braves don't make nearly as much contact in general, nor do they see as many pitches in the strike zone.  And why would they?  The stats clearly demonstrate that the Braves' hitters are willing to swing at balls off the plate.  On top of that, the swings they're taking aren't measured, calculated attempts - they're looking to put the ball over the fence.  For some teams, this would be worrisome; check that, it is worrisome for some teams, as many teams that have the same offensive profile as Atlanta are teams that are well-below .500 (hello, Astros!).

So why does this approach work for the Braves?  Simple - despite the fact that the Braves swing and miss a lot, they're still selective about the pitches they're swinging at, as their high OBP and BB% demonstrate.  And again, when they do make contact, look out, because they're aiming to put it over the fence.

Some look at Atlanta's offense as a type of grand experiment - can this type of offensive profile translate into success?  As the sample size has increased, the answer has evolved into an increasingly louder "yes". 

(Stats via FanGraphs)

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