Marlins series preview

The Braves begin the 2nd half of their road trip tonight in Miami, a place they have fared well over the past couple years, including a sweep of the Marlins earlier this season.  Having lost two of three to the Phillies the Braves not only squandered an opportunity to deliver a knockout blow to the Fighting Cholly Manuel's, but now also find themselves only four games ahead of Washington who swept the flailing Padres with relative ease over the weekend.

Both Atlanta and Washington have seven games left before the All-Star break.  Atlanta has three in Miami before coming home for four against a tough Cincinnati team.  Washington has four in Philadelphia before finishing with three in Miami.  Theoretically, Washington should win both series, as they are the more talented club and have been playing better ball recently.  For Atlanta, sweeping this series against the Marlins before coming back home to face a Cincinnati team that is probably equal to them in terms of overall talent is absolutely essential.  There's a mental edge that comes with taking a four or five-game lead into the All-Star break, but that edge is diminished if the lead is one or two-games, especially if most of that deficit was made up in the final week of the first half.

As previously stated, this series is a must-win for the Braves.  There's really no reason to ever lose to the Marlins, especially now that Ricky Nolasco plays for the Dodgers.  The Braves do catch the Marlins at the bottom of their rotation, missing Jose Fernandez again as well as the unheralded Nate Eovaldi.  Anything short of a sweep here puts the Braves in a bad position going into the first half's final series. 

Series matchups:

Tonight, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Mike Minor v. Kevin Slowey

Tuesday, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Julio Teheran v. Henderson Alvarez

Wednesday, 12:40 (local broadcast/MLB network)

Paul Maholm v. Jacob Turner

Tonight's lineup:

Simmons (sigh)
Heyward
J Upton
Freeman
McCann
Uggla
BJ
Johnson

Freeman v. Puig

In any other year, Freddie Freeman would likely be a shoo-in for a spot on the All-Star team.  He has been the most consistent run producer in the Atlanta lineup since the start of the season, but he has been somewhat overshadowed by media coverage on players like Upton and Gattis.  Playing in the same league as Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt, Allen Craig, and Adrian Gonzalez doesn't help his case either.  With the All-Star rosters nearly finalized, Freeman finds himself in an American Idol-style vote-off for the final spot.  None of the other four names in the pool are particularly exciting except for one: Yasiel Puig. 

Freeman's production has been spread out through most of the season, sans the two week stretch he spent on the DL.  Puig's has come over the course of one month.  It could be argued, and rightfully so, that Freeman is more deserving of the final spot, but that's not what this game is about.  The game is a popularity contest, pure and simple. 

When thinking about potential advantages from choosing one player or the other, one must ask the question: does his presence give the NL an edge greater than it would have if Puig were there in his place?  Probably not.  That's no slight against Freeman, but it's important to keep the context of this game in mind when thinking through this issue.  

In spite of all marketing and fanfare that says otherwise, the All-Star game is not a showcase of the game's best players.  Necessitating that each team send a representative automatically creates the inefficiencies necessary to ensure this fact, and the fact that uninformed fans play such a huge role in determining starters goes to further ensure the irrationality.  Thanks to Bud Selig, the All-Star game now carries significant weight insofar as it determines home-field advantage during the World Series, a reactionary policy that has proved polarizing since it's inception in 2003.

Now, we have no other choice than to accept the fact that the game carries the weight that it does, regardless of our opinions about whether or not it should.  And because the best players aren't necessarily going to be present thanks to the aforementioned reasons, fans must decide what's more important: seeing their favorite players on the team, or putting the team in the best position to win for the sake of the greater good.  As a fan of a team with playoff aspirations, one should have a strong interest in seeing "their league" win.  Assuming that same fan is rational, they must set aside perceived obligations to myopically vote for their entire team to play in the All-Star game.

As social media has evolved, MLB has tailored the All-Star game to capitalize upon the technological advancement.  It is chasing a youthful and tech-savvy demographic in order to maximize its' profits, and there's nothing wrong with that.  That demographic spans a spectrum from the nerdiest nerd to the most casual, carefree observer.  There's a good chance that both sides of that spectrum are familiar with Puig, be it from watching him in a game, on Sportscenter, or hearing tales of his exploits from other fans.  Puig is afforded that prestige because he plays in one of the world's largest media markets, on a team with a massive fan base with incredibly high, and perhaps unrealistic, expectations.  That in and of itself gives him a lead that is likely insurmountable.  Freeman may be the more deserving of the two, but as usual, circumstances play a crucial role in determining outcomes.  Under these circumstances, Puig will be tough to overcome. 

Phillies series preview

After a disappointing series loss to the Marlins, the Braves begin a three-game series tonight against the Philadelphia Phillies, marking only the second series between the teams so far in 2013 and the first trip Atlanta has made to Citizens Bank Park this season.

After a few seasons of dominating the NL east, 2013 has been a harsh reality check for Phillies' fans that believed the team's core had one more run in them.  They have been as inefficient financially as any franchise in the game the past few years, there's not much in the way of relief coming from the minor leagues, and winning in this division won't get any easier considering the youth and savvy of Atlanta and Washington.  Ruben Amaro Jr, or Ruin Tomorrow Jr as he has become so affectionately known to some, has indicated to the media that he's proud of the Phillies' desire to buck the analytic trend that has overcome baseball since the turn of the century.  In doing so, he's losing ground every single day that he, and the front office/ownership as a whole, refuse to acknowledge and make use of information and data.  In the contemporary baseball landscape, leveraging statistical and abstract analytic abilities are paramount to success.  How someone in his position could either a) fail to recognize that, or b) recognize it and ignore it, is utterly astounding.  Every team in this division is better off the longer Amaro stays in his position in Philadelphia, because if they ever decide to get someone that actually knows what they're doing, they could be a very dangerous team for a very long time.

There is a decent chance that this series will be the last time the Braves face Chase Utley and Jonathan Papelbon as Phillies, and there could be others that are moved (Cliff Lee) depending upon how the next few weeks turn out.  They are 15-17 since June 1 and haven't been a serious factor in any race thus far, sitting 8.5 games out of both the NL east and the wild card.  A series loss to the rival Braves this weekend could prove to be the fatal blow. 

Series matchups:

Tonight, 7:05 (local broadcast)

Paul Maholm v. Cliff Lee

Saturday, 7:15 (FOX broadcast)

Tim Hudson v. Kyle Kendrick

Sunday, 1:35 (local broadcast)

Kris Medlen v. Jonathan Pettibone

Lineup:

Simmons (sigh)
Heyward
J Upton
Freeman
Johnson
Uggla
BJ
Laird

(Park overlay courtesy of Hit Tracker Online)

Does Jesse Crain make sense as a future Brave?

Jesse Crain has quietly been putting up solid numbers for the White Sox over the past few seasons, and the savvier element of their fan base probably knew before the season started that he may not finish his contract in Chicago.  The White Sox find themselves in the cellar of the AL central, and recently they became one of MLB's first teams to openly declare themselves sellers.  As such, Jesse Crain has become one of their most valuable commodities, and ostensibly he could be an answer to the Braves' issue of bullpen depth. 

Jesse Crain is a righty, dependent upon a fastball that averages 94 mph complimented by a slider and curve.  He has used the curve more this season than in any season past, but it is his least effective offering.  His splits are noticeably better against RHH, particularly with respect to his K/BB (an even 7 against RHH v. 2.57 against LHH).  He does, however, induce a fair amount of grounders against lefties.  While his FIP against RHH is a microscopic .90, it's still a very respectable 2.21 against LHH, so it's not as if he can't get them out.

One of his greatest strengths is his LOB%, as evidenced by the fact that he has stranded 86% of runners on-base in 2013.  Relative to the Braves, that mark would be good for 2nd on the team, behind Craig Kimbrel's ridiculous 97% mark that is good for 4th in MLB.  Crain's strand rate is not an aberration as he has consistently been near that number since the 2011 season.  He also has yet to surrender a HR, and while he's more a flyball-type pitcher, the Braves strong OF defense would theoretically help play to his strengths.

This season marks a walk-year for Crain, whose contract pays him $4.5M.  If the Braves were to trade for him, they'd be on the hook for ~$2M of that, certainly an affordable number.  There are a couple of things working against a trade like this taking place, however.  First, White Sox GM Rick Hahn has made it no secret that his franchise is in full-sell mode, so it's safe to assume a bevy of teams have already inquired about Crain and what it would take to get him.  There's still a few weeks between now and the trade deadline, and many teams have considerably more marginal benefit to gain from adding a player like Crain to their roster.  With the Braves bullpen being the best in baseball, the marginal value of a guy like Crain is minimal relative to these other franchises.  The Braves aren't in a position of desperation with regard to acquiring a reliever, so if the price gets too high, they would almost certainly go another direction.  Also, while Crain's numbers against LHH are good, better than average even, he's still not really a left-handed "specialist", and that's really what Atlanta needs.  Sure, he could do the job, and it would be nice to have him as a 7th-inning option, but the Braves have a very specific need in this area, and all things considered, he may not be the best fit. 

In summation, Jesse Crain would be a definitive upgrade for the Braves bullpen.  Coupled with the addition of Beachy, he could prove pivotal in taking an A bullpen and making it into an A+ bullpen. 

And of course, as soon as I get done writing this, I find out that Jesse Crain was just put on the 15-day DL with a right shoulder sprain.  That's not going to be good for his trade value. 

Marlins series preview/Gattis & Martinez update

Tonight begins a three-game set against the lowly Miami Marlins, a franchise that has seen better days.  The Marlins are on pace to lose 102 games this season, the second highest total in franchise history behind the infamous 1998 "Fire Sale" team that managed to lose 108 games despite winning the World Series the previous season. 

There are only two reasons to watch the Marlins, and their names are Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez.  Stanton isn't putting up the obscene numbers he posted in 2012, but he remains one of baseball's most coveted corner outfielders.  The consensus seems to be that he will be traded at some point, be it during this season (unlikely) or before next season (more likely).  Fernandez has been dominant, despite not having pitched more than 150 innings above A-ball in Miami's minor league system.  The Cuban-born righty has paired with Ricky Nolasco to form a solid 1-2 punch at the top of the Miami rotation.  Fortunately for the Braves, he will not pitch in this series, and unless the rotation is shuffled, they won't see him when they travel to Miami next week either. 

The Marlins have played good baseball of late, finishing June 15-10, the best record of any NL east squad, winning series against St. Louis, San Francisco, and San Diego in the process.  They have faced the Braves only three times in 2013, getting swept at home in the midst of Atlanta's hot start to the season.  The Braves have a 17-4 record against Miami since the start of the 2012 season, easily their best record against any NL east rival.

Although the team has been beleaguered with bad press recently, that's certainly nothing new to the much-maligned ownership.  Jeffrey Loria has been the target of copious amounts of criticism and much of it is well-deserved.  However, the franchise has shown time and time again that it is capable of pulling itself up by its' boot straps and defying the odds, usually by way of talent development.  Although 2013 is an obvious punt for them in terms of fielding a competitive team, there is talent in their minor league system, and they've already shown a propensity to buck baseball orthodoxy by playing these guys at the major league level, service time and financial considerations be damned.  Future editions of this team promise to be more dangerous than this one, so let's enjoy their relative ineptitude while we can.  

Series matchups:

Tonight, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Tom Koehler v. Kris Medlen

Wednesday, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Ricky Nolasco v. Mike Minor

Thursday, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Henderson Alvarez v. Julio Teheran

Tonight's lineup:

Simmons (sigh)
Heyward
J Upton
Freeman
McCann
Uggla
BJ
Johnson

Lastly, two quick notes on injured Braves.  According to Dave O'Brien, Evan Gattis still has not been cleared for baseball activities.  It's looking more likely that he may not return until after the ASB.  Also, Cristhian Martinez's shoulder is still bothering him, and he is being examined by team doctors today.  That's not good. 

BJ Upton's monster June

The name "BJ Upton" has been synonymous with "mediocrity" amongst many a Braves fan, some of whom are all to eager to trade him, send him down to the minors, ask him nicely to retire, or execute any other number of foresight-lacking scenarios that involve him play somewhere (anywhere) else. 

It has been a month since Fredi Gonzalez made some rather pointed comments about Upton's performance.  Some considered the comments unbecoming of an Atlanta manager, others found the bracing, frank nature of the comments refreshing.  While we aren't privy to BJ's thoughts on the situation, we do know one thing: his performance has improved dramatically since the comments were made.

While it's impossible to measure to what degree the comments themselves played a role in his resurgence, it's safe to say that he would have pulled himself out of the rut regardless.  Rarely do players build an entire statistical foundation for performance throughout their careers only to nosedive into pumpkin status without warning.  BJ Upton's career has certainly fallen short of the lofty expectations heaped upon him in his younger days, but he has been an above-average, occasional All-Star level performer since 2007.

Through the first two months of the season, Upton's strikeout rate was ~36%, his walk rate was ~9%, and his OPS was a paltry .471.  He was worth -13.7 runs!  Negative 13.7!  Predicting daily performance was easy: a couple strikeouts, an infield pop-up, and a disgraceful ground ball unfit to be fielded by anyone.  Boos rained down from the Turner Field stands.  This is Atlanta, jewel of the south, the home of southern hospitality.  A player needs to do something pretty egregious to get booed here.  It was hard to watch.

June has seen him come to life at the plate.  He is striking out less (~24%), walking more (~17%), and hitting for more power.  His June OPS stands at .812, largely due to his ability to get on-base, but also due to an ISO increase of over 100 points.  He's also squaring up the ball more effectively, increasing his LD% to ~21%, which is slightly high for him relative to his career performance to date.  His infield-fly percentage fallen in-line with his career average (~10%), and his June BABIP is not indicative of a player that has gotten lucky (.281).  In fact, one could argue that he has been slightly unlucky during this time period, as his speed lends itself to being able to beat out grounders, of which he hits plenty. 

If BJ Upton can maintain a level of production even close to what he put out in June, the Braves will need to seriously consider moving him up in the lineup to get him more at-bats.  Getting his speed on the bases in front of Heyward, Freeman, and his brother Justin could add a dynamic element to this Braves offense that Andrelton Simmons, bless his heart, just hasn't provided.  Now the only question is: how long will it take Fredi Gonzalez to realize Upton (or Heyward) makes more sense at the top of the lineup? 

Unless Fredi is planning on calling Andrelton out in the media.  Touché, Fredi.

Backwards and forwards

The Braves put an exclamation point on their first half sweeping the Diamondbacks in a series that marked the midpoint of the season.  Improving their home record to an MLB best 28-11, the series sweep was a much needed reprieve from their mediocre June performance. 

The Braves will enjoy a day off before starting a three-game set against baseball's worst team, the Miami Marlins, then travel to Philadelphia for three, Miami for three, and finally come back home to host Cincinnati for four games leading up to the MLB All-Star break.  Traditionally, the ASB marks the midpoint of the season, but the Braves will have already played 95 games by this point, nearly 60% of their entire schedule. 

Before we close the book on June, let's look at the good and the bad.  The pitching staff did a great job keeping games close, Julio Teheran and Kris Medlen in particular.  The top-end of the bullpen performed very well.  Jason Heyward, BJ Upton, and Dan Uggla rebounded from their slow starts while Freddie Freeman continued to stake his claim as the team's most consistent contributor at the plate.

Unfortunately Justin Upton seems to have used all his power during the season's first month, a topic FanGraphs' Chis Cwik wrote about today, and Andrelton Simmons on-base issues continued.  Mike Minor and Paul Maholm had some rough starts, and the bullpen's lack of depth is becoming increasingly clear with the recent performances of Gearrin/Varvaro/Avilan.  To compound these issues, the Braves lost Ramiro Pena to shoulder surgery and Evan Gattis to an oblique injury.  Pena's season (and possibly his career in Atlanta) is over, and Gattis has yet to resume baseball activities despite the injury occurring nearly two weeks ago.  The strength of the Braves' bench, so apparent in many games, has taken a huge hit with these losses and Tyler Pastornicky/Paul Janish aren't even close to being able to fill that void. 

Looking ahead the Braves seem sure to make a move for a reliever, and that may be the extent of their dealings.  Many Braves fans seem to think Paul Maholm could or should be traded, but the likelihood of that happening (as small as it was) died off with Beachy's setback.  Given the performance of the starting staff, Beachy coming back into a bullpen role  is starting to look more likely anyway, and for all we know, that could have been the Braves' intentions all along.  Pairing his return with the acquisition of a high-leverage LHP, the bullpen's depth issues could be almost completely nullified.  The positional starters are set, and modifying the lineup to an optimal point would be a good idea, although the potential gains are marginal.  Continuing to hit the team's lowest OBP producer and least powerful bat at the top of the lineup, and giving him the most at-bats, seems like a bad idea.  At this point it seems if this were going to change, it would have changed by now.  The fact that it hasn't is utterly bewildering to the author. 

After the ASB, the Braves will play only 19 games against teams that (as of this writing) have a record over .500, and nine of those games are against the Nationals (the others are split between St. Louis and Cleveland).  28 of those games come against some mixture of the Mets, Marlins, White Sox, Brewers, and Cubs, who along with the Astros form a who's who of baseball's worst teams.  That coupled with a six and a half game lead over a Nationals team that has yet to really play to the level many thought them capable of should ease any anxieties one may have over the second-half direction of this team.