Ughla and the Dahjas

The Braves released their NLDS roster today, and without getting into too much detail (the full list can be found here), they made some interesting moves at the margins.  Chiefly, the lack of Dan Uggla and Paul Maholm (more on them later), but also the exclusion of Joey Terdoslavich and Scott Downs, not to mention David Hale getting a spot.

Looking at this roster, one thing becomes immediately clear to anyone that has been paying attention this season: defense.  Not just defense, but DEFENSE.  If the Falcons continue to bomb, we may see the D + picket fence combo in the Turner Field stands.  And why not?  The dynamic in the playoffs is entirely at odds with the dynamic of the season.  Ask Brooks Conrad how big a defensive miscalculation can turn out to be. 

That's why Uggla isn't here.  We all know what he has done with the bat, but he hasn't done much lately.  If his glove were even league-average, he'd almost certainly be a sure thing for a spot.  Instead, Janson (Janish/Johnson, pronounced YAHN-son) gets the spot, and during a series in which defense could play a huge role, there's really no valid argument against that.  These games are too important.  On a side note, one has to wonder what this means for Uggla's career as a Brave.  He's a three-time All-Star that wants to play, so this is a really tough situation for him.  The dynamic between him and the front office has probably seen better days.  That's a situation that will command more attention down the road.

Also, with regard to Maholm: he has almost certainly thrown his last pitch as a Brave, barring being added to the NLCS roster, if the Braves make it that far.  He turned out to be a very shrewd addition by Frank Wren, and I wish him well in his journey. 

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Now, onto LA.  I have not made it a secret that I do not like this match up.  At the same time, the caveats are what they are.  Kershaw, Greinke, and Ryu may as well be Koufax, Sutton, and Walter friggin' Johnson.  If the Braves are going to hit it doesn't really matter who is pitching.  Their volatility will make or break them.  I'd cite some regular season stats to back this up, but this is playoff time.  You can't take a huge data set like that and expect to make it fit within a five-game series; it is entirely disproportionate.  Random outcomes within that small of a sample size simply can't be accounted for in a predictive, meaningful way.

That's the magic of playoff baseball.  Anything can happen.  It's somewhat daunting to "let go" of stats, of reason, of logic, of the metrics that can be used to assess and investigate the game.  At the same time, it's also liberating.  It extracts the cold, unfeeling data and analysis and replaces it with the whimsical, carefree enjoyment of fall baseball.  It is very gratifying to apply statistical methodology to this game, and doing so is essential to gaining a deeper, more enriched knowledge and appreciation of the game itself and the men who make their living playing it.  But to do so without balancing it with the occasional suspension of concern for those very principles it to do one's self, and the essence of the game, a grave injustice.

Braves take it in five.  Heyward or Medlen is the MVP. 

See you on the other side.