Mets series preview

After dropping two of three to the White Sox, the Braves travel to Citi Field to begin a four-game set against the fourth-place New York Mets.  Losing two of three to a last place team is never a good thing, obviously, but given the Braves' current injury situation, they should be afforded a modest amount of slack.  Still, a 24-28 record away from Turner Field is a source of frustration, and while the 2013 version of the Mets don't scare anyone short of the Marlins, they have certainly shown an ability to hold their own against the Braves, most recently having taken three of five in Atlanta a few weeks ago.  Not having to face Matt Harvey should ease the anxieties heading into this series, and while Zach Wheeler still looms, he has not looked nearly as dominant lately as he did in his major league debut against Atlanta.

The Mets are 10-6 in July, but they have played their best ball on the road, with a paltry 19-28 record at Citi Field.  It goes without saying, a series win here is crucial, especially when considering the fact that the Phillies and Nationals are starting series against two of the NL's best teams, with the Phillies going up against the Cardinals, and the Nats going up against the Pirates. 

The Pitchers:

Dillon Gee has faced the Braves twice this season.  In his first appearance against the Braves at Citi Field, he was touched up for five earned runs on eight hits while striking out four and walking none.  His second appearance came at Turner Field, and he pitched a much more effective (though far from dominant) eight and a third innings, giving up five hits and two earned runs, striking out six and walking one.  Gee has gone at least six innings in all but one of his starts since his May 25 loss to Atlanta.  His fastball sits in the upper 80s and is complimented by a good curve and changeup.  

Carlos Torres has pitched almost exclusively out of the bullpen this season, but with Shaun Marcum on the DL, he has been thrust into the role of starter.  He has faced Atlanta once this season in a relief appearance on June 19, pitching two and a third innings, striking out four and walking one.  He features a good cutter and mixes in a slider/curve to keep hitters off balance.  Historically, his curve is his most effective pitch.

Jeremy Hefner has been as volatile as any pitcher in the league so far in 2013.  He has faced the Braves once, earning a loss in six-inning, three hit, two run effort on May 24 at Citi Field.  That game marked the tenth consecutive loss for the Mets in games started by Hefner, a streak that would be broken in his next outing against the Yankees.  Though the losses piled up during his starts, much of the blame can be attributed to the lack of run production by the Mets' offense. 

From the beginning of June until his last start on July 19, Hefner posted very good stat lines in his starts, not allowing more than two earned runs in the eight starts during that time span, and going at least five innings in all of them.  That changed during his last outing on July 19 against Philadelphia, a game that saw him allow ten hits and eight earned runs in two innings while striking out three and walking none, causing his ERA to jump over half a run on the season. 

Hefner has come to rely more on his fastball and slider in 2013, as his curve/changeup usage has dropped slightly in favor of the other pitches.  His slider is his best pitch, but his fastball and curve are nothing to scoff at.  Hefner's not going to wow anyone, but when he's got a good feel for his offspeed stuff he can be very dangerous, particularly against righties. 

The much-ballyhooed Zach Wheeler gets the start in the final game of the series, and with all the attention garnered by Matt Harvey, Wheeler seems to be flying under the radar somewhat.  Though his performance hasn't been up to the lofty standard set by Harvey, he has looked formidable nevertheless.  His debut came against the Braves, a game that saw him go six innings while allowing four hits, no runs, seven strikeouts and five walks.  Since then, he has gone more than five innings only once in five starts, most recently going four and two-thirds against Philadelphia on July 20, allowing only two earned runs on seven hits, but throwing 106 pitches in the process of doing so. 

Wheeler has leaned heavily on a mid-90s fastball so far in his early career, but the offspeed stuff is good enough to keep hitters honest.  While he doesn't seem to have found his "feel" for those pitches quite yet, it's only a matter of time before he does.  The Paulding County native has all the tools at his disposal to be really, really good for a long time. 

Series matchups:

Tonight, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Julio Teheran v. Dillon Gee

Tuesday, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Kris Medlen v. Carlos Torres

Wednesday, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Tim Hudson v. Jeremy Hefner

Thursday, 12:10 (local broadcast)

Alex Wood v. Zach Wheeler

Lineup for tonight's game:

Simmons (sigh)
Heyward
J Upton
Freeman
McCann
Gattis
Uggla
Johnson

*Dave O'Brien reports that BJ Upton will run today for the first time since his injury, but he will not return from the DL this weekend when he's eligible.  A rehab assignment is almost certainly in order.*

*ESPN reports that Paul Maholm has been placed on the 15-day DL*

(Stats and images courtesy of ESPN, FanGraphs, and ESPN Hit Tracker)

Scatterbrained Sunday

Paul Maholm

Paul Maholm left yesterday's start with a sprained left wrist.  It's hard to say whether or not the wrist has played a role in his diminished performance recently, but nevertheless, Maholm's FIP has risen steadily since the beginning of the season.  Conversely his Ks/9 have fallen, his BB/9 are up, and while he may be experiencing some bad luck on balls in play, his LD% in the month of July is a staggering 31%, more than 50% above league-average.

It's hard to say what the next step will be for Maholm.  He either goes back into the rotation, goes to the bullpen, or gets traded.  If the reports about Alex Wood transitioning into the rotation are true, Maholm may lose his spot.  The Braves could opt to put him in the bullpen, a role he has never officially held as a major leaguer.  This could be a prudent move, as it would theoretically prevent Atlanta from having to trade for a southpaw to compliment Avilan.  A trade seems unlikely, especially considering that his injury comes ten days before the deadline, but the possibility is probably much higher now than it was a few weeks ago.

Maholm's next scheduled start is Thursday at Citi Field against the Mets.  While the team is saying the injury isn't severe enough to keep him from his next start, don't be surprised to see either Brandon Beachy or Alex Wood get the start.  This time next week, the circumstances surrounding Maholm should be much clearer, but until then, we're relegated to conjecture.  

Alex Wood

To say Alex Wood has been on the fast track this season would be an understatement.  Barely a year removed from UGA, Wood finds himself on the verge of starting for a playoff contender.  Though his body of work screams "small sample size", his performance to this point has been very impressive.  Talking Chop's Ben Duronio wrote an excellent assessment of Wood and made a case for him to move into the rotation, an article that is worthy of a read.  Wood was a likely candidate for the rotation in 2014 anyway, but the fact that the Braves think highly enough of him to give him a chance in the heat of a playoff run says a lot about what they think of his ability.  In other words, if one reads between the lines, this move shouldn't be considered a knock on Maholm's performance so much as an acknowledgement of Wood's potential.

If Wood does indeed move into the rotation, it follows that the likelihood of a trade being made for a LH reliever increases exponentially, assuming Maholm doesn't fill that spot.

Jason Heyward

Dave O'Brien reports that Jason Heyward will play CF until BJ Upton returns from the DL, tentatively scheduled for July 28.  This is an excellent move not only because Heyward is perfectly capable of manning CF, but it ensures Gattis a spot in the lineup in the meantime.  This seemed like a common sense move, and it's nice to see Fredi on board with it. 

The Trade Deadline

The Braves will almost certainly make at least one move between now and July 31, with a LH reliever being at the top of Frank Wren's shopping list.  MLB Trade Rumors suggests Joey Terdoslavich could be trade bait, a suggestion that seems reasonable as the only positions he plays (OF, 1B) are ones manned by players he has no chance of unseating. 

Members of the national media have suggested the Braves could go after an "ace" starting pitcher, or a third base compliment to Chris Johnson.  The first of these seems highly unlikely, not only because the pitching is strong, but also because the Braves' front office isn't known for mortgaging the future to win now.  As for the backup infielder, the loss of Ramiro Pena seems to necessitate exploring the market.  Paul Janish's glove, as good as it is, does not make up for his lack of offense.  Pastornicky could be a candidate to fill this role, provided his glove work has improved since spring training.  In retrospect, the trade of Juan Francisco looms large here, as he would be an ideal candidate for this spot.

This team has very few holes, and while all would be addressed in an ideal world, the reality is that the Braves are not in a position to trade away prospects, nor are they in a position to take on loads of new salary.  But alas, this assumption is made while operating with asymmetrical information.  For all we know, we could wake up Friday morning with Manny Ramirez having taken Reed Johnson's place on the bench.  Such is the beauty of the July trade deadline.

(Stats and Info courtesy of FanGraphs, Talking Chop, and MLB Trade Rumors)

Looking ahead: pitching

The 2013 version of the Braves pitching staff has played a crucial role in the team's ascent to a 54-win first half.  All the peripherals point to sustained dominance over the course of the second half.  Make no mistake: the position the team finds itself in is nothing short of a luxury.  The Braves have used six starters through the first 95 games, and will use a seventh at some point when Beachy is able to return.  Getting a guy like Beachy added to the rotation mid-season is essentially the equivalent of the Braves trading for a top-end starter and a top-end reliever, as the person Beachy replaces will likely find themselves pitching high-leverage innings out of the bullpen.

The rumor mill has been very active with regard to the Braves rotation.  Some have speculated that Tim Hudson will be moved, but that seems unlikely, as he wouldn't fetch much return and can help this team win in 2013.  Not only that, but what little trade value he had has been diminished by a shaky performance thus far.  Others say Kris Medlen or Beachy himself will pitch out of the pen, scenarios that seem to be the most plausible.  A recent musing put forth by Mark Bowman states that Alex Wood may be a candidate to join the rotation.  This seems like a curious decision, but Bowman is very tuned in with the team, so there's a good chance of fire with this smoke.  Given the information available to assess the situation, this move seems a little strange.  After all the starters have performed very well, and replacing the weakest link with a proven starter like Beachy makes sense, a scenario will almost certainly come to fruition.  Replacing the second-weakest link with a 2012 draft pick that has one major league start doesn't seem to be as safe a bet, not because Wood isn't a good pitcher, but because he has little experience, and his value would likely only be marginally better than his predecessor if we're being rational about expectation levels.  This is an issue many in Braves Country will be watching very closely.  Were it anyone other than Bowman or another media figure with similar standing, the author would look upon the notion with severe incredulity.

The bullpen will likely look different two weeks from now.  In addition to the potential insertion of Medlen/Beachy/player X, the Braves have been scouring the trade market for a left-handed reliever.  Glen Perkins seems to be the top choice, but if Minnesota's recent posturing is any indication, he will remain with the Twins.  According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Cubs' James Russell and Brewers' Mike Gonzalez are also high on the Braves' wish list, but they form only a portion of an extensive (and underwhelming) list of lefty relievers who could be made available for trade.  At this point, it seems clear that it's not so much a matter of if Atlanta will make a move, but when. 

If the emergence of guys like Minor, Beachy, Medlen, Kimbrel, and Teheran tells us anything, it's that there's little reason to question the rationale of the Atlanta's organizational pitching orthodoxy. 

Here's a ranking of the starters and relievers as the author views them, according to expectation levels going forward

Starters:

Minor
Medlen
Teheran
(big gap)
Beachy
Hudson
Maholm

Relievers:

Kimbrel
Walden
(huge gap)
Wood
Carpenter/Avilan
Ayala
Varvaro

Looking ahead: offense

The Braves offense has seemed most sporadic thus far in 2013, but probably not to the extent that many would like to believe.  The team wRC+ has fluctuated from 109 in April, to 101 in both May and June, to 111 so far in July, good for a 105 team wRC+ on the season which ranks 7th in MLB and 2nd in the NL to the Cardinals.  The team is also 10th in wOBA, 6th in ISO, 8th in OBP, 4th in BB%, 10th in wRAA, and perhaps most interestingly, 2nd in HR/FB% at 13.7%.  The MLB-leading Orioles rank 1st at 14.1%, and it should be considered moderately impressive that anyone is even close to them considering their lineup and home park factors.

Consider as well that BJ, Heyward, McCann, Freeman, Uggla, and Justin have all at one time or another been slumping badly or on the DL.  That's not to mention Simmons' poor performance at the plate.  Much of the issue has been mitigated by a bench that could be the best in baseball.  Setting the minimum amount of PAs at 75 (in other words, Schafer/Francisco/Gattis/Laird/Pena/Johnson), the group averages a wRC+ of 118, a wOBA of .341, an OBP of .339 and an ISO of .170.  Based on those stats alone, the level of production is essentially akin to a level above Heyward but below Justin spread across 746 PAs, nearly double the 400 that team-leader Andrelton Simmons has accumulated.

If we act under the assumption that the Braves "true talent level" is a wRC+ of ~105, with a standard deviation of ~5 either way, one should feel confident in Atlanta's ability to hold their division lead throughout the remaining 67 games.  Remember, wRC+ is an index statistic, meaning that 100 is league-average, and a point fluctuation either way is 1% (+/-) above or below league-average.  For the season, the team wRC+ is 105, ie the offense has been 5% more productive than league-average.   The Nationals season-average for wRC+ is 88, meaning their offense has performed 12% below league-average.

As has been written about previously, the team K% has fallen month-over-month since April, a trend that seems to go unnoticed when the topic of the Braves' offense has come up in media circles.  Ostensibly this could be an indication that "productive outs" have increased, and anecdotal evidence seems to confirm that, but alas, there is no stat available to track them due to their normative nature.  For those of us that watch most every game, it is more apparent than to those who simply check a box score or watch Sportscenter.  Media outlets that espouse such nonsensical glossing-over of meaningful data points and events are unworthy of the first ear.  The Braves most consistent offensive games are ahead of them, not behind.  The recent performance is probably a good indication of what it will look like.  That's something to be excited about. 

(Stats via FanGraphs)

The First Half

The All-Star break is here, and to the surprise of everyone, the Braves find themselves the envy of the baseball landscape with a six-game lead over the second place Nationals, and a half-game more on the confusing saga that is the post-Pat Gillick Phillies.  No sane person could have predicted this would happen, and in the spirit of that notion, Braves country should be deliriously happy with this team's performance and success so far. 

In light of the circumstances, the season's first half could not have gone much better for the Braves.  Keep in mind, at various points this season, this team has gone without Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward, and Brian McCann for weeks at a time.  Brandon Beachy hasn't thrown a pitch at Turner Field.  Evan Gattis missed most of June.  This doesn't even touch the bullpen and bench, not to mention the CURSE OF SAM HOLBROOK so plainly evident in the Reds' series.  This team has been hit hard by injuries, yet has still managed to go 54-41 in 95 games, keeping every team in the division at bay for the duration with relative ease. 

The injuries to Justin and Heyward don't appear to be serious.  BJ's adductor muscle is worrisome since he's a guy that relies so much on speed in his game, but having time to relax at home will surely be very beneficial for him.  Gattis' injury is also worrisome as oblique strains tend to linger, but getting the All-Star break to rest it is a big boost.  The same can be said for Freeman's thumb.  Taken as a whole, and considering the scope of the available information, the extent of the injuries don't seem to indicate a long-run concern.  We can only hope that remains the case.

Much has been made about the offense.  The media chorus echoes these sentiments loudly and frequently.  Yes, they do strikeout a lot.  No, the event of a strikeout isn't necessarily any worse than a non-strikeout event (oftentimes it's better).  What goes unsaid, however, is the fact that the Braves have regressed slowly but surely towards the mean in team K% since the start of the season, continuously falling month after month.  The offense has been making more "productive outs" lately.  The situational aspect of the game has improved after lacking for so long.  While it's not nearly as much a priority as other aspects of hitting, it's still a factor. 

The Braves have been very fortunate as far as pitcher health is concerned.  During the offensive swoon, the starting pitching kept this team in games, often allowing a thrilling late-inning comeback.  Maholm and Hudson have been somewhat distressing, but Medlen, Minor, and Teheran have been excellent.  The looming addition of Beachy only helps the matter.  The bullpen, while somewhat patchwork, has been a net positive.  Kimbrel hasn't been 2012 Kimbrel, but he's still one of the game's best closers, so some slack is advised. 

With 67 games left on the schedule, the pressure is on Washington and Philadelphia to try and keep up, but neither appear to pose an imminent threat.  While the Phillies seem to be sure bets to fade, Washington is still capable of making a run.  All it takes is a week to take a seven-game lead down to a one-game lead, as many Washington faithful hoped to see this past week.  With that in mind, it's imperative to protect assets with a eye on the season's 2nd half.  In other words, if guys like BJ, Heyward, Freeman, or anyone else need time off to rest injuries, now is the time to do so.  While the games count the same regardless of whether they take place during July or September, a six-game cushion and an easy schedule afford this team the privilege to have that mindset.  The Braves have a six-game road trip to PHI and WAS from August 2-7, and fielding a healthy starting nine would go a long way to crushing the playoff aspirations of the rival teams. 

Go Phillies!

Not exactly the easiest thing to say/think/want, but it needs to be said.  Not necessarily because the Phillies have taken the first two from Washington, but because any hope that can be offered to Ruin Tomorrow, Jr's front office is a goal worthy of every Braves fan.

As their record indicates, the 2013 version of the Phillies is a middling, tired horse circling the drain around the glue factory.  Their shortcomings have been, and will continue to be, well-documented.  In a surprisingly weak NL east, their shot at an actual playoff berth is inflated thanks to two really bad teams, one inept but talented team, and one legitimate contender.  Thanks to the new wild-card rules the bar is lowered for them, and with quite a bit of pride, marketing, and costs sunk into this team, the illusion of playoff glory taunts them.  They know it's now or never with this group.

The Phillies' financial obligations are massive beyond 2013.  Chase Utley and Carlos Ruiz will likely walk when their contracts end after the season, Roy Halladay may be done, and their other starters are not considered to be anything more than rotation depth at best.  The Phillies have huge holes to fill, and have to work around ~$105M in previously committed payroll in the process of addressing them. 

The Phillies do have valuable assets, including Utley, Cliff Lee, and Jonathan Papelbon.  Trading them, being realistic about the landscape, and making a decision based on the future instead of the past is the prudent, savvy thing to do.  Keeping them and hoping that things will magically come together is the stuff of Disney movies. 

It is in the best interests of the Braves that the Phillies sacrifice their future in favor of present consumption.  Doing so only delays the inevitable day of reckoning, further allowing Frank Wren and Co. to put more daylight between themselves and a franchise with considerably more spending power.  The beauty of the Braves' financial situation is that it essentially forces efficiency, seeming to live at the point of the curve where there's just enough money to keep one hungry without letting them become complacent.  The returns past that point are rapidly diminishing in many cases, with the Phillies, Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs and White Sox standing as perfect examples.

It won't always be the case that the Phillies are deficient in the aforementioned areas, but as long as they are, the Braves need to do everything they can to widen the gap between the franchises, even if that means rooting for them.

Dan Uggla's contacts

Much has been made of Dan Uggla's performance since his first season as a Brave.  To say it has been a disappointment is probably an understatement, but there's no need to beat a dead horse.  During spring training doctors told Uggla he was suffering from astigmatism and promptly prescribed him contact lenses.  In classic male fashion, Uggla ditched the lenses after only a few days of use and began this season without them. 

That didn't serve Uggla very well, and his first two months did little to inspire any hope that he would provide any value relative to his multi-million dollar contract, of which he still has two more years.  Finally on June 20, Uggla buckled under the pressure of his performance, or lack thereof, and decided to get fitted for another set of contact lenses, this time with comfort being the utmost priority. 

Since that day, Uggla has seemingly been an on-base machine, walking quite a bit and hitting for considerable power.  However, his peripheral statistics don't suggest a substantial difference.  His LD% has remained steady at ~20%, roughly league average, and his GB% has actually increased.  He has eight XBHs in those 15 games since June 20, and while his OBP during that span is .330, that's well below the OBP he posted for the entire month of June (.394), meaning that the majority of that good work came before he was fitted for his new lenses.  His strikeouts are down, as are his walks, but his power is up since the aforementioned date, evidenced by a 60-point increase in ISO (.215 season avg v. .274 during the time frame) and 32-point increase in wOBA (.325 season avg v. .357 during the time frame).  Lastly, and perhaps tellingly, his BABIP has ballooned almost 60 points from a season avg of .264, up to .322 during the time in question.  Are we seeing some regression to the mean insofar as his ability to get lucky is concerned?  It seems likely.  His .370 BABIP during June far eclipsed the first two months of the season, during which his BABIP hovered in the .220s.  Uggla's career BABIP is .291, and his BABIP as a Brave (not including 2013) is .268, leading one to believe that the numbers posted so far this season are probably outliers. 

When dealing with arbitrary beginning and end-points, a grain of salt is generally recommended.  This case is no different.  It's impossible to say, through 15 games, what kind of impact the contacts have had on Uggla's performance, and that's assuming that we're even aware of all the variables in play (hint: we're not).  Come September, if this moment is looked upon as a turning point in his season, well, that's great.  Given the data available now, that doesn't appear to be the case.

Quite frankly, the 2013 version of Uggla is probably the most productive version we've seen yet.  In 2011, it was all power and a weak OBP.  In 2012, the OBP was there, but the power was severely diminished.  So far in 2013, he seems to be striking a productive balance between the two.  Is that because of the contacts?  Time will tell.