Retroactive turning points

 "Better to be silent and thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt."

 -Lincoln, Twain, Keynes, Confucius, etc.

Diversified interests are important.  Don't get me wrong, there are undeniable benefits to narrowing one's focus for appropriate lengths of time, but the returns are diminishing, especially if the object of interest is something that is, ultimately, superfluous.  Baseball is a game, nothing more, nothing less.  To be sure, it is a game that I love, but in terms of importance, it ranks well behind my education, and lags infinitely behind social obligations, up to and including being a husband.  And don't even get me started on Breaking Bad.  So there's my excuse for having not written in a month.

Listening to a local sports radio station the other day in the car, I heard one of the personalities wax poetic about how the Gomez/McCann incident could prove to be the spark this team needs to go deep into the playoffs; a turning point, if you will.  Maybe, maybe not.  The fun thing about subjective analysis is that you can mold it to fit whatever argument suits you at the time.  Oh, the Braves rolled off 15-straight wins after the Gomez incident?  Boy, that guy must've gotten them fired up.  Aw, the Braves got swept in the first round and the players decided to go join the circus?  Geez, that Gomez fella really got into their heads, huh?  Subjective questions disguised as hard and fast analysis are the equivalent of Upward leagues: everybody wins, everybody gets to feel good, like their opinion matters.  Gross.  Thankfully, most of the time, random distributions come along and rob those feelings of any validity and render them entirely inept.  Reality is on the phone, and it told me to tell you that you're an idiot.  Boom, roasted.

Look, September hasn't been a great month for this team.  The freakin' injuries, man.  The cruel, unfeeling reality of random outcome distribution cares nothing for our concerns.  The race for the best record coming down to the final weekend of the season has huge implications for this team's playoff outlook.  If they can hold, they'll get the winner of the WC playoff.  If they don't, they get the Dodgers.  This is where ambivalence rears its' ugly head.

Part of me believes that this team would be in a much better position playing anyone but the Dodgers.  My rationale for feeling that way can be summed up in three words: Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu.  Those guys can shut down an offense, especially one as inconsistent as Atlanta's.  Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, while they are both quality teams, are probably a notch below the talent level of LA, so naturally, facing them is the outcome all rational Braves fans should be hoping for.

On the other hand, if there is one thing we should all know by now, it's that the playoffs exist in a type of vacuum.  That is to say, what happened during the season, statistically speaking, is largely irrelevant in terms of predictive power as it relates to postseason outcomes.   To put it as simple as possible: anything can happen.  It's a roll of the dice.  Just ask the Giants.

The identity of this team has been static throughout the season.  When it's clicking, they're at least as good as Detroit, Boston, and St. Louis.  Mediocre teams don't string together two double-digit win-streaks in the same season.  When it's not, well...it's not.  And we've seen just how futile things can be for this club when the offense isn't producing.

I've said it all season: this team is built to win the World Series.  The ability is there.  The desire is certainly there.  Will they do it?  Who can say?  Even if they don't, it would be hard to argue that the 2013 Braves haven't improved the lot of the franchise, and in the long run, isn't that what we should really be striving towards?

Marlins series...ugh, who cares?

Look, I know you're sick of reading about the Marlins, and quite frankly, I'm sick of writing about them.  They have sucked this year, but they've got a nice foundation of talent to build around for the future.  They're not a team of any consequence as it relates to the playoffs, so that's as far as I'm going to go with that.  

Atlanta isn't a city that is known for diehard fans, particularly when it comes to baseball.  The announced attendance at last night's game was ~22K, but given the authority afforded to me by virtue of my attendance, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that's not even close.  Try 15K.  The traffic heading into the stadium was thin, the pedestrian traffic even more so.  The Nalley lot was half-empty, as was the Green lot.  It was one of the quietest crowds I've witnessed first-hand.  When Brian McCann hit his homer, the crowd didn't even start cheering until the ball cleared the fence.  The guy sitting behind me, a native Clevelander who seemed to think that Medlen only throws fastballs and changeups, remarked about the dull crowd: "This is a first place team!" he said, "Where is everyone?"  His buddy promptly informed him that the Falcons were playing a meaningless preseason game less than five miles away, not to mention live SEC football on TV, and that explanation is as fitting as any I suppose.  It's almost September.  The division is decided.  While this is the best team in baseball, they're on cruise control for the next month, and I can't say I blame my fellow Georgites from wanting to indulge in some football, be it pro or college, if for no other reason than to break up the monotony.

With 29 games remaining, the Braves have a better-than-average chance of reaching the 100-win mark for the first time since the 2003 Braves went 101-59.  They'll need to go 19-10 to make that happen, and when you look at the remaining schedule, there's no reason to think they can't pull that off.  Winning 100 games will almost certainly distinguish them as the team with the best record in the NL, barring a late surge by LA and StL, though realistically, 96 wins should clinch it.  Given the what the situation looked like entering this season, that's an impressive accomplishment by Frank Wren and Fredi Gonzalez.

So while the remaining games won't exactly have a playoff feel to them, there's still plenty of reasons to watch or be in attendance.  Tonight's pitcher for Miami, Jose Fernandez, is as good a reason as any.  So far the Braves have missed him in each series they've played against the Fish, but their number finally comes up tonight.

Fernandez's performance in 2013 has been a silver lining in an otherwise disastrous season for Miami, and he stands out amongst a particularly strong rookie class that includes the likes of Matt Harvey, Shelby Miller, and the Braves' own Julio Teheran.  He is 2nd only to Harvey in FIP amongst rookie starters at 2.65, and he boasts a tERA and SIERA of 3.40 and 3.22, respectively.  He's not a guy that relies on smoke-and-mirrors to do the dirty work, instead, he boasts excellent command and control of his pitches.  His fastball sits in the mid-90's, and he features a plus curve that serves as his out-pitch.  Here it is in all its' glory:

He can also throw a change and a slider in any count, and it's not often that he misses his spots with these pitches.  He doesn't give up many homers, though part of that is likely attributable to the cavernous expanse of territory known as Marlins Park.

Fernandez flew through the Marlins' minor league system, pitching less than 150 total innings above rookie ball.  He was on the national prospect radar before the season, but the consensus at that time was that the Fish would wait until late this season or even 2014 to call him up.  Doing so would have been in their best interests as it would delay the start of his arbitration clock, not to mention they had nothing to gain from him dominating at the major league level since they had no chance of competing anyway.  Despite all of that circumstance, they called him anyway, and haven't looked back.  It may not be what Andrew Friedman would do, but then again, this is Jeffrey Loria we're talking about.  He doesn't have to make sense.

This guy is an excellent young pitcher, and although the upcoming series probably isn't very compelling for some baseball-weary members of Braves country, if you have to watch one game from it, tonight's game is the one.  This may be the only opportunity we get to see this kid pitch until next season, so make the most of it. 

Series matchups:

Tonight, 7:30 (local broadcast)

Jose Fernandez v. Julio Teheran (watch this game!)

Saturday, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Jacob Turner v. Mike Minor

Sunday, 5:00 (local broadcast)

Nate Eovaldi v. Alex Wood (underrated matchup here!)

(Stats via FanGraphs)

Back into the swing of things

I suppose it's safe to come out now.  After a sudden rash of injuries and less-than stellar offensive showings, the team seems to be, again, rising from the mat before the ref hits five.  Not unlike the bizarrely wet summer Georgites have dealt with, the Braves have been inundated with trips to the DL, doctor's visits, and nagging issues.  Their ability to fight through it all and win the division, the quality of the competition notwithstanding, is impressive; maintaining the best record in the game even more so. 

Tonight, for the last time in the regular season, the Braves will match up against a team that could be considered in the "playoff hunt", although Cleveland is a borderline contender at best.  Tonight's game will mark only the 44th game against a "playoff caliber" team that Atlanta has been involved in all season.  In the 43 games prior, their record is 25-18.  That record comes against PIT, KC, DET, CIN, AZ, LAD, StL, and CLE.  That's almost a .600 winning percentage, rougly consistent with the type of ball the Braves have played all season.  If the total number of games against good teams seems rather low, remember that Washington was supposed to be much better, and if we include them in this picture, the Braves' record jumps to 37-22, a win percentage of .627.

Although the injuries have piled up in a way not often seen, the Braves have had some good fortune this year.  Washington tanking is far and away the biggest contributor to that surplus.  Though the health issues have been abundant, very few of them have been serious.  The unfortunate ones that are serious have been dealt with accordingly without the win/loss record suffering.  That's all well and good for the regular season, but the playoffs are another matter. 

The most important angle with regard to this team right now is the health of Jason Heyward.  He's the key to this team doing more than just winning the division.  Schafer appears to be a viable platoon option in CF with BJ, but there is a rather expansive gap in his game versus Jason's game.  That's no slight to Jordan, a guy that has really stepped up this season, just a fact.  This is still a good team without Heyward, but he's the catalyst that takes it from good to great. 

Another day, another injury

Wake up.  Coffee.  Let the dogs out, give them some food.  Let the wife out, give her some food.  Let myself out, give myself some food.  Do some light reading whilst enjoying a rare glimpse of sunlight in the greater metropolitan area.  What's that?  Another Braves player is hurt?  It can't be!  I suppose that comes with the territory when your team is made up of the elderly, the sick, and the dying. 

At least, that's how it feels.  The Heyward injury ostensibly seemed to be the climax of the injuries amongst the Braves; it was brutal, it came late in the season, and he's our best player.  What could possibly be worse than that? 

Well, Brandon Beachy is going to visit with Dr. James Andrews on Monday thanks to some elbow soreness he experienced in the last inning of his start against the Mets.  Considering he's fresh off of the DL from his Tommy John surgery, this is the absolute last thing anyone wants to see.  I'm struggling to remember a time when a player went to Dr. Andrews and came back with a full green-light to keep pitching.  I'm sure it has happened, but the instances are few and far between. 

As for expectations of coming out of this, a best-case scenario is for Beachy to miss his start against St. Louis, and maybe one more after that, then resume pitching.  Worst-case scenario is that he's done for 2013 and most of 2014.  While the Braves didn't need Beachy to be the Beachy he was in 2012, not having him at all makes things very tricky going forward.  Without him, the Braves rotation looks like this:

Minor
Teheran
Medlen
Wood
Maholm

The old adage "you can never have too much pitching" definitely applies here.  That rotation is good enough to hold down the fort until the playoffs, and from that point on you only need three starters anyway, which I assume would be Minor, Teheran, and Medlen, although Wood may be able to slide in there if he keeps up the good work, or if they face a lefty-heavy lineup in the NLDS.  Maholm is perfectly capable as a fifth starter, and he can transition to a swing-man role in the playoffs. 

This team has fought adversity all season.  They have stayed in, and now lead, the race for the best record in spite of the injuries.  Questioning their resilience this late in the season, with a large body of evidence plainly showing that they are capable of defying the odds, would be rather uncouth. 

Regardless, the question looms and becomes increasingly louder each day. 

Brief Cards preview

It's all downhill from here, folks.  This trip to St. Louis will be the last one the Braves take to a city with a team over .500.  Nothing but bears (Cubs), beer (Brewers), and Battlestar Galactica other sub-par teams from this point forward.  Well, except the Indians, but they're probably a tier below both Atlanta and St. Louis.

While the Braves are essentially on cruise-control until October, St. Louis is locked in the middle of a vicious, nasty NL Central race that will likely come down to the last week.  They've got a lot to play for, and they will surely want revenge on this Atlanta team that threw them into a bit of a tailspin in late July.  Since getting swept by the Braves and losing four of five to Pittsburgh, the Cards have gone 10-9, allowing Pittsburgh to maintain its' lead on them by one game coming into today's action.  Yadier Molina missed most of that time on the DL, but has since come back and raked, hitting .370 with two homers in the last week.  That freaking guy.

This is the last series of the season where a split would/should be considered acceptable, especially considering the recent blows the offense has sustained.  Get the hell out of there with no more injuries, get home, and start working toward October. 

Series matchups:

Tonight, 8:15 (local broadcast and MLB Network)

Paul Maholm v. Joe Kelly

Friday, 8:15 (local broadcast)

Kris Medlen v. Adam Wainwright

Saturday, 7:15 (local broadcast)

Julio Teheran v. Shelby Miller (must watch!)

Sunday, 2:15 (TBS)

Brandon Beachy v. Lance Lynn

This one hurts

In case you missed it, Jason Heyward was nailed in the right jaw by a Jon Niese fastball during yesterday's game in New York.  The jaw was fractured in two places, and he'll be on the shelf for at least a month, perhaps even the rest of the regular season.  Four weeks from today puts him back in time for the September 20-22 series in Chicago against the Cubs.  Six weeks from today is October 3, just in time for the first round of the NLDS. 

The loss of Heyward is an incalculable, devastating blow to the Braves' offense.  Since June 9, he's hitting .291/.373/.495 (BA/OBP/SLG), but he has been even better than that during the recent hot-streak.  His performance on the field and on the basepaths has been equally impressive.  He is the most dynamic player on this team, and his work in the second half of the season was making everyone forget about the first half.  It's a real shame to see him go down as he seemed to be hitting a zenith.

Compounding the issue is the fact that by the time he is ready to come back, the minor league season will be finished.  He may go to the instructional league for a few days just to get warmed up, but it will be hard to go from cold to full-speed in a week.  One silver-lining in all of this is that he theoretically should be able to perform baseball activities sooner rather than later, considering the injury occurred on a part of his body that he doesn't use to exert strenuous amounts of energy.  To put it another way, a leg injury precludes one from running until it's fully-healed, and thusly, one is at the mercy of the leg.  The same can be said for the arm and throwing.  Obviously the head is infinitely more important than both of those in the grand scheme of things, but when it comes to baseball, it doesn't see as much action.

Going back to 2002, the Braves have averaged 14.7 trips to the DL per season, most of them being of the 15-day variety.  The main outliers were 2004 when they only sent eight all season, and the 2006 and 2011 seasons which saw them send 17 each time.  Heyward marks the 19th Brave to make a trip to the DL this season, and seven of those trips have been season-ending, not including Jason's.  And they still have the best record in baseball by three games.   Go figure.

Speaking of the best record, losing Jason makes that much more interesting.  The Dodgers haven't lost a game since the beginning of July, and St. Louis and Pittsburgh are hanging tough too, as is Cincy, albeit to a lesser extent.  That race is of the utmost importance as it guarantees the Braves home-field advantage in the NLDS against the winner of the one-game playoff.  It was never going to be a slam-dunk, but now it's a little too interesting.

Simba's amazing season

Andrelton Simmons' proficiency at SS comes as no surprise to anyone that follows baseball closely nowadays.  Despite playing in only 49 games last season, he left enough of an impression to compel many to declare him the game's best defensive player regardless of position.  There were plenty of people who were (rightfully) skeptical of that, if for no other reason than the sample size was very small.  Granted, the sample itself was extraordinary, but more time was needed to establish its' legitimacy.

Fast-forward to present day, and Simmons has converted even the most incredulous observer.  Though statistics on fielding are still in their infancy and aren't nearly as infallible as batting data, one in particular stands out: a plus/minus stat (+/-) known as DRS, or Defensive Runs Saved.  In broad terms, DRS is:

“…as I understand it, the numbers determines (using film study and computer comparisons) how many more or fewer successful plays a defensive player will make than league average. For instance, if a shortstop makes a play that only 24% of shortstops make, he will get .76 of a point (1 full point minus .24). If a shortstop BLOWS a play that 82% of shortstops make, then you subtract .82 of a point. And at the end, you add it all up and get a plus/minus.” (Joe Posnanski, Sports Illustrated)

DRS has existed in its' current form since 2003; before that, it was known as "Total Zone", a metric for which data goes all the way back to before the live-ball era.  Darin Erstad is the all-time leader in this category, posting a +39 TZ/DRS playing CF for the Angels in 2002.  To keep it in a Braves-centric context, Andruw Jones' best year in terms of TZ/DRS was 1999, when he was worth +37.  Andrelton Simmons enters today's play with +37, meaning that he is almost certain to shatter Erstad's record.  FanGraphs' writer Jeff Sullivan had this to say about Simmons (the entire article can be read here):

"If you sort everyone by Total Zone per 150 games, we find Simmons highest all-time, a few runs ahead of 2009 Jack Wilson among shortstops. This, right here, is the argument for Simmons having the best defensive season ever. We don’t have quality all-time defensive data, but the data we do have says Simmons is unbelievable."

As a player, Andrelton's WAR-value is derived from three main components: hitting (wRAA), baserunning (UBR and wSB), and fielding (UZR).  Simmons hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboards with the bat this season, carrying a into today's action a wRAA of -11.2, indicative of a hitter that is below replacement-level.  To give some context to this ambiguous number, BJ Upton's offensive performance has been worth -16.8 wRAA.  If Simmons offensive performance matched BJ's output so far this season (.186/.269/.299), he would still have positive WAR-value.

Think about that for a minute.  Hypothetically Simmons could be one of the worst offensive performers in the game among qualified hitters, but because his defense is so spectacular, he would be still be more valuable than just about any Braves' player.  There isn't much room between him and the bottom of the league in terms of offensive output, so that hypothetical isn't far away from this season's reality.  Any contribution he can make offensively is literally icing on the cake.

The true test for Andrelton is whether or not he can sustain this high level of performance.  Defense is usually a skill that peaks early thanks to the body's propensity to wear-down with age.  That's what made Ozzie Smith so special: he performed in an elite tier defensively for so long.  Only time will tell if Andrelton can keep this up.  Fortunately, his offensive profile will likely improve, even if it does so marginally.  He's probably never going to be a serious power threat, but he can drive the ball with authority, and he does a great job making contact.  Going into 2014, if he can improve his plate discipline and make some headway with the bat, even if his ceiling is that of a replacement-level player, his value to the team and as a commodity will skyrocket.  While we're still probably at least one or two more seasons away from having a clearer understanding of the kind of player Simmons is/can be, the leading indicators are very encouraging.  

Here are five gifs to make Simba's case, in case you didn't click on the FanGraphs article above:

(Stats and Info via Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs and Fielding Bible)