Friday, August 9, 2013

Marlins series preview

The forlorn Miami Marlins limp into Turner Field tonight having lost five straight, and their prospects are grim against an Atlanta club that is currently playing an elite brand of baseball. 

Well chronicled are the struggles of the Fish, who enter play at 43-70.  Everyone knew 2013 would be a wash for them, but there are a few silver linings for Marlins fans.  Giancarlo Stanton is still one of the more explosive young outfielders in the game, Jose Fernandez is establishing himself as a front-line starter, and that's just the tip of the iceberg.  The Marlins aren't scared to start the arbitration clock on a player if he can help them win, and it's in that context that their minor league depth must be considered.  Many people in and around the industry see the Marlins as a franchise sitting on a goldmine of talent, but given the erratic nature of owner Jeffrey Loria's past maneuvers, speculating as to when and how that talent will help them win is likely a fool's errand (though that won't stop some from trying).

Series matchups:

Tonight, 7:30 (local broadcast)

Jacob Turner v. Brandon Beachy

Saturday, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Nate Eovaldi v. Alex Wood

Sunday, 1:35 (local broadcast)

Henderson Alvarez v. Mike Minor


(Info via Grantland and ESPN)

Thursday, August 8, 2013

Checking in on the offense

All stats are post All-Star break unless otherwise specified.

Offense (as a team) in the 20 games since the All-Star break:

.275/.343/.422

wRC+: 113

K: 19.7%, BB: 8%, BB/K: .40

wOBA: .336

ISO: .147

BABIP: .322

Batted ball data:

LD-20.6%
GB-45.3%
FB-34.1%
HR/FB-12.9%

Summary: Not many surprises here.  The K% is continuing to fall as it has since the start of the season.  The BB/K ratio is roughly season-average, as is the BABIP.  Couple that with a LD% and HR/FB ratio that is slightly below the season-average for this team, and you find yourself looking at an offense that has been producing at a high level without (collectively) relying upon lady luck to fill any voids.  The power has fallen off slightly, likely due to the recent struggles of Dan Uggla, Evan Gattis, and the amount of playing time Terdoslavich and Johnson received due to BJ Upton's injury.  The OBP is higher than average, likely due to Heyward's emergence in the leadoff spot, Chris Johnson's league-leading hitting, and Simmons receiving fewer at-bats, among other things.

The top individual performers (in descending order):

Justin Upton - 342/402/582
Freddie Freeman - 324/400/500
Jason Heyward - 281/406/474
Chris Johnson - 370/407/457

BJ Upton would be on this list, at the top of it no less, were his performance not limited to five games and 23 plate appearances.  A triple slash of 476/522/571 and wRC+ of 213 looks amazing, but some of the shine comes off when the sample size is taken into account.  With that said, he appears to be on the verge of being, uh, the opposite of what he was.

The solid contributors (in descending order):

Andrelton Simmons - 256/307/451
Brian McCann - 231/306/446

Simba's performance is actually an improvement over his season numbers, believe it or not.  Combined with his defensive contributions, his output level leaves little to be desired, especially now that he's in the eight-hole, a place his bat plays very well.  McCann is currently plagued by a drop in LD%, but the power is still there.  He will be fine.  

Below-average performers (in descending order):

Dan Uggla - 151/279/301
Evan Gattis - 246/269/308

Uggla has seen a serious uptick in his GB% which, when combined with a very low BABIP, equates to poor offensive performance.  He's also not walking the way he had been, but that will likely change as plate discipline is not a skill one loses this late in one's career.  It may be wise to drop him in the lineup until he figures things out.  As for Gattis, his power has fallen off the radar, and with Terdoslavich hitting well, he doesn't figure to get many at-bats in the outfield.  The book is out on him throughout the league, so just as pitchers have adjusted to him, he'll need to adjust to the pitchers. 

(Stats via FanGraphs)

The Manifestation of the Killer Instinct

In the blink of an eye, the Braves have given their identity a total makeover.  It seems like a lifetime ago when many a pundit and prognosticator spoke of the Braves in an indifferent, if not speculative, tone.  Now with thirteen-consecutive wins in the rear-view mirror, people address this team with a heightened sense of revelry.  Is it deserved?  Absolutely.  It's not often that teams put together one double-digit win streak, much less two in the same season.  To do so in such a grandiose, bloodthirsty fashion as they have makes it all the more impressive.  Sweeping the best team in the NL, then three more teams on top of that, is remarkable.  We'd all be just as impressed had they taken two of three from St. Louis and Colorado, swept Philadelphia, and taken two of three from Washington.  Instead, they just went ahead and won 'em all.

The sweep of Washington stands as the high-point of the season thus far.  Whether they were trying to or not, the Braves made a statement during that series, one that transcends any media fodder or nonsensical Twitter battle.  This season, the NL East is sole property of the Atlanta Braves.  The Nationals are a talented team, one with nothing left to lose, fighting mostly for pride at this point.  Oftentimes those teams are the most dangerous.  Instead of allowing them to renew their sense of purpose, the Braves broke them.  You could see it in Bryce Harper's eyes just as well as you could see it on Davey Johnson's face.  The Nats' season is over.

One last note on the Nationals and the Bryce Harper situation: they seem to be a club driven by a sense of bravado, and Harper is at the head of that.  Juxtapose that with the stoic nature of the Atlanta franchise that has been so prevalent since the glory days of the early 90's, and it's clear that the mantras of these two clubs are at odds with one another.  Is there a lingering resentment between the two clubs due to the stark contrast in their clubhouse cultures?  An outsider's perspective doesn't offer much in the way of insight, but it's entirely within the realm of possibility. 

When it comes down to it, pointing a finger and cussing a pitcher from sixty feet away comes off as petulant.  On top of that, if Bryce truly had no intention of challenging Teheran physically (as he stated after the game), then what's the point of standing at a safe distance and berating him?  If you're going to take issue with being hit by a pitch that's fine, but you have to own it.  In baseball, that means charging the mound and rolling the dice.  If you don't want to do that, then shake it off and take your base.

We already knew a lot about Bryce before that moment, but we learned a little more from his reaction in the moment and from his comments afterward: he's a grandstander.

Anyway, enough about the Nationals.  While it has been fun to enjoy this team's performance since the All-Star break, an infinitely more important battle looms: the race for home-field advantage during the playoffs.  In light of the recent win streak, the Braves are probably the odds-on favorite to end the season with the best record in the NL as they have a very easy schedule.  One thing that will work against them is the delicate balance that must be struck between resting the starters and putting the team in the best position to win.  If Atlanta has the division locked up by, say, September 15, it's likely that we'll be seeing a lot of Terdoslavich, Schafer, Reed Johnson, and perhaps even Janish and Laird from that point forward.  At that point in the season, it's likely that Fredi Gonzalez will make decisions about starters on a day-to-day basis, as far as the aforementioned balance is concerned relative to the race for the best record.  His track record in this area has been very good lately, so there's little reason for concern.

If there's one thing to take away from this win streak, it's this: April was no fluke.  The ceiling for this team's performance is as high as any team in baseball, Detroit and St. Louis included.  The talent is certainly there, but more importantly, the killer instinct is there in spades.  

Monday, August 5, 2013

Nationals series preview



The first series in 2013 between Atlanta and Washington took place in Washington from April 12-14.  No one could have known at the time that the series would prove to be a microcosm for the Nats' entire season.  Paltry offense, porous defense, and untimely pitching woes were their undoing during that series and have proceeded to undermine their entire season. 

This is it for Washington.  This series is their season.  At least, they're probably convincing themselves of that.  They have to.  To come out on the other side of this series with a double-digit deficit potentially seals their fate as one of the more memorable disappointments in recent baseball history.  To trim Atlanta's lead to 9.5 games (which would require a sweep) would be provide a much-need morale boost, but even then, the likelihood of making up that deficit is remote. 

Coming into today's game, Washington's playoff odds stand at 4.8%, a number that combines their odds of winning the division (0.1%) and the wild card (4.7%).  Given the strength of the NL Central teams, not to mention the Nationals season-long ineptitude insofar as winning is concerned, the smart money is on Washington missing the playoffs entirely.  FanGraphs projects them to go 27-24 the rest of the way, a reasonable forecast that would put them right at .500 (81-81) for the season.  The 2nd wild card team will likely need ~87 wins, which would require Washington to play 33-18 ball for the rest of the season.  On paper this seems feasible, but they have given no indication at any point that they're capable of playing at that level for a sustained stretch.  They're almost certainly done in 2013, and it's not entirely due to their poor play; Atlanta has been a much better team from the outset.

The Pitchers:

Stephen Strasburg gets the start in tonight's game in the midst of another fine season, though he has not achieved the levels of dominance that many have come to expect.  While his strikeouts are down slightly from last year, his velocity has not changed in an appreciable way, and his walks have been stable.  He has been getting more ground balls at the expense of line drives, and he's remained stingy with homers, allowing less than one per nine innings.  He has fared well against the Braves in 2013, going at least six innings in two of three starts (he was pulled with injury during his most recent start on May 31).  Though he doesn't walk many, Atlanta's patient lineup can and has worked him for a few free passes before, specifically during his April 29 start during which he issued four walks in six innings.

Game two features Gio Gonzalez, a guy the Braves have had little issue with in recent times.  Gonzalez's peripherals are almost identical to last year's, except his HR/FB ratio, which has doubled.  Like Strasburg, he has faced Atlanta three times this season, but he has not fared as well as his counterpart.  He is notorious for having control issues and has given up at least one BB in all of his starts so far in 2013.  His most recent start against Detroit saw him implode, allowing ten earned runs and eleven hits in three and a third innings.  When he's on, he's as good a lefty as there is.  When he's not, he's his own worst enemy.

One of the league's most unheralded pitchers goes in game three, in the form of Jordan Zimmerman.  He's having a very strong year and is establishing himself as the unsung ace of the staff.  He features a strong fastball mixed with an array of offspeed stuff highlighted by a wipe out curve.  He has faced Atlanta once this season, pitching an eight inning masterpiece of two-hit, no-run ball.  He has been a model of consistency throughout the season, with his only major blemish a blowout loss to the Dodgers a couple of weeks ago.   

 Series matchups:

Tonight, 7:05 (local broadcast)

Mike Minor v. Stephen Strasburg

Tuesday, 7:05 (local broadcast and MLB Network)

Julio Teheran v. Gio Gonzalez

Wednesday, 7:05 (local broadcast)

Kris Medlen v. Jordan Zimmerman

Tonight's lineup:

Heyward
Justin
Freeman
McCann
Johnson
Uggla
BJ
Simmons

Regardless of the outcome of this series, one thing is certain: after this season, the words "World Series or bust!" will become as taboo in Washington as "Infield Fly" is in Atlanta.  

(Stats and info via Baseball Prospectus, Hit Tracker Online, and FanGraphs)

Friday, August 2, 2013

Small sample size alert: Heyward leads off

Tomorrow marks a full week of Heyward hitting at the top of the order, and given the performance of the offense during that span, it's probably safe to assume that the lineup tinkering will be put on hold for a while.  Heyward has done nothing but strengthen his hold on the spot, mashing a triple slash line of .321/.424/.643, with a one-to-one (1/1) BB/K ratio, a wOBA of .448, and a wRC+ of 192, and three homers.

The fact that he's leading off instead of hitting second has nothing to do with the impressive run he's on, but Fredi's decision to let Heyward get the most at-bats while leveraging Simmons in a more appropriate spot is a wise one that should pay dividends as the season starts to wind down and game situations are magnified.  Heyward's better at getting on base, he's faster, and he has better instincts on the base paths than Simmons.  That's just the reality of the situation.  All of these characteristics are desirable in the "ideal" lead off hitter, and as such, it only makes sense for Heyward to be that guy.

The issue comes full circle when Andrelton Simmons' recent performance is taken into account.  During the past week, he's hitting .393/.414/.571.  While his batting average is heavily aided by a high BABIP (.404) during that span, it's good to see him hitting well and hopefully building some confidence in himself.  In the eight spot of this lineup, having someone that makes good contact and doesn't strikeout much is a plus.  Uggla, Johnson, and McCann are all high OBP guys, and in a situation where a runner is on third with one out, if a sac-fly (or contact in general) is needed, Simmons is the guy you want up there.  Taking walks and running the bases well aren't his strengths, and it's nice to see that recognized, instead of attempts being made to force him into a mold he doesn't fit into.

Being a manager is all about leveraging the strengths of your people.  Lineup optimization is not a make-or-break type of managerial decision; instead, it's a decision whose effects are felt most at the margins.  Often, those marginal decisions end up playing a large role in the outcome of events.  Fredi's decision to take action and rectify this situation for the betterment of the offense is a forward step. 

Phillies series preview (updated)


Fresh off a 7-0 homestand, the Braves find themselves right back on the road again to face a Phillies team that, for all intents and purposes, is on its' last leg.  The dynamic in this series stands in stark contrast to the last time these teams met in the city of brotherly love, as the Phillies have gone 2-10 since the All-Star break and now find themselves well outside the realm of contending for a playoff spot.  A month ago, the Phillies used their series win against Atlanta as a springboard to a sweeping first half finish, a run that put them in second place ahead of the Nationals and espoused the notion that this aging core had one more run left in it.

Well, the aging core doesn't have another run in it, and their disastrous second-half start only goes to confirm that.  Many believed that Utley, Papelbon, Lee, and Michael Young would find themselves in different uniforms by the time tonight's game rolled around, but they remain inexplicably bonded thanks to a GM that appears to be living in a fantasy land.  Sure, teams can still make trades in August, and there's a good chance that Michael Young still gets traded, but the longer the inevitable is postponed, the fewer buyers there will be when the time finally does come to make a deal.  Fewer buyers means less competition, and less competition for the services of an aging player means fewer commodities are commanded in return for his services.

As it relates to the Braves, this is wonderful news.  Here's what we should be hoping for from the Phillies going forward: an August surge that propels them back into the NL wild card discussion, only to be followed by a September collapse that occurs late enough so as to prohibit them from receiving any substantive return for their valuable trade chips.  Add to that a winter that sees Ruben Amaro Jr.'s contract extended and, well, now we're just being greedy.

This series is not nearly as important as it would be were the Phillies still in the race, but making headway towards a .500 record on the road is important.  This stadium plays smaller than most parks, and the Braves need to take advantage of that. 

The Pitchers:

Ethan Martin will make his major league debut tonight, starting in place of Cliff Lee who is day-to-day with a sore neck (side note: the Braves have had a ton of luck missing other team's aces this season.  I'm looking at you, Kershaw).  There isn't much information available about Martin, but his performance as an Iron Pig (Lehigh Valley, AAA) has not been particularly impressive, and his control does appear to be an issue, as he has allowed 5.21 BB/9 at the AAA level.  He'll probably throw a shutout.

Game two of the series has no starter listed for the Phillies.  It's Jonathan Pettibone's spot in the rotation, but he too is injured and on a day-to-day basis, so this one is up in the air.  He may be able to start it, or if Cliff Lee is up to it, he may get the nod.

John Lannan will start the Sunday night Saturday afternoon game.  Lannan has pitched very well against the Braves in the past few years, all of those starts coming as a member of the Nationals' starting rotation.  He has gone at least five innings in all of his starts against the Braves dating back to the start of the 2011 season, and has not given up more than three earned runs in any of those starts.  He has been a net-positive for this Phillies rotation in 2013, and his FIP on the season is an impressive 3.37.  He is a ground ball pitcher that relies primarily on a fastball that sits in the high-80s mixed with a good curveball and changeup. 

Cliff Lee takes the mound for game three.   He has been as good as ever, but he's always hit or miss against the Braves.  So much for dodging aces. 

Series matchups:

Tonight, 7:05 (local broadcast)

Kris Medlen v. Ethan Martin

Saturday, 4:05 (FOX national broadcast)

Brandon Beachy v. John Lannan

Sunday, 8:00 (ESPN national broadcast)

Alex Wood v. Cliff Lee

(Info courtesy of FanGraphs and Hit Tracker Online)

Hello, I Love You

It's always easiest to be a fan during win-streaks, especially when those win streaks include two sweeps (one over the best team in baseball) and a +35 run differential.  It goes without saying that this version of the Braves' offense is the one everyone has been waiting to see.  During the seven-game surge, the Braves have been walking more (8.3%), striking out less (18.8%), and not just hitting for power (.172 ISO) but hitting anything, everything, everywhere (.397 BABIP).

The Braves' K% dropped nearly another two percent from June to July, going from 21.7% to 19.8%, marking the fourth-consecutive month the rate has declined.  After finishing April with a rate of ~25%, and being well on their way to setting records at that pace, the Braves' aggregate number has fallen to 22.3%.  That's an improvement of nearly 10%.  Let's look at the month-over-month numbers:

K%:

March/April-25.1%
May-23.3%
June-21.7%
July-19.8%
Season-22.3%

Changes in other peripherals act as further evidence of the evolution of this offense.  They're relying less on homers, but the power hasn't fallen off the map.  The BB% has fallen, but the OBP has been steady despite the change.  They're driving the ball more and making more contact on balls in and out of the zone.  Part of this is likely attributable to regression from the extreme "three true outcomes"-type of statistical picture painted by this team so far, but the signal leading this noise is a tangible change in the type of offensive output many thought this team capable of.

The Braves are not a team of slow, lumbering sluggers that strikeout a dozen times per game as many national pundits would have you believe.  Taking the stats from May and June and assuming April was an anomaly is a fool's errand; statistical sample sizes can't be isolated in a vacuum.  Looking at the trends over the course of the season shows clearly that the offensive identity of this team is changing.  They're still marginally inclined to the "three true outcomes" of power, walks, and strikeouts, but they're not restricted to them, and their ability is not defined by them. 

With four months in the books, the Braves' offense has put up two months of wRC+ performance of ~101, or marginally better than league-average, and two months of ~110, or considerably better than league-average.  Their season-average wRC+ is 107, a well above-average mark that stands tied for first in the NL with the powerful Cardinals.  This is a team capable of sustaining that type of output without fear of extreme regression or caveats due to luck.  Considering this offense has yet to operate at full capacity, there's reason to be optimistic about their future performance. 

(Stats via FanGraphs)