Kevin Gregg is a right-handed reliever that has gone from almost being out of baseball to one of the game's hottest names, closing for a Cubs team that has no chance of contending in the NL central and posting career-best numbers in the process. With July's trade deadline a little over a month away, the interest in his services is heating up, and according to MLBTradeRumors, the Braves are in the mix.
As far as Gregg is concerned, there are a few stats that immediately stand out when digging into his peripherals. First, he has cut his BB% by ~30%, sitting at ~7% in 2013 versus his ~10% career average. His is striking out more batters (26% in 2013 to 18.5% career). He has become a sinker/slider pitcher in 2013, using his four-seam fastball considerably less. With this, one would expect an increase in GB%, but that's not the case. His GB% is down nearly 10%, and his LD% and FB% are up above his career average (up nearly 40% in the case of LD%). He has also been the beneficiary of a high strand rate, leaving 90% of runners on-base, nearly 25% over his career average of 73%. His FIP is among the lowest for pitchers that are supposed to be available for trade, but the other numbers are concerning. It's impossible to quantify exactly how much of this is due to his development of a new pitch (the sinker), but the leading indicators are pointing toward his performance being more smoke-and-mirrors than actual substance.
Gregg's salary info is unavailable, but it's safe to assume he's probably making close to league-minimum, as the Cubs signed him to a minor-league deal before the start of the season. Due to his laudable performance and the fact that he's being paid very little, the Cubs find themselves in an enviable position, essentially having struck gold on a veteran guy that came with almost no risk whatsoever. They will certainly exploit that position and demand a lot in return for Gregg, especially considering how weak the reliever market is in 2013.
The Braves have dealt with Chicago before, most recently during the Vizcaino-Maholm/Johnson deal, but when considering what the Braves are ostensibly looking for in a relief pitcher, Kevin Gregg doesn't seem to be a good fit.
(Stats via FanGraphs)
Thursday, June 27, 2013
Wednesday, June 26, 2013
Why Bill Shanks is wrong
Bill Shanks is a writer for the Macon Telegraph, the self-appointed news source of Middle Georgia. Yesterday he posted an article comparing the career paths of Jason Heyward and Jeff Francouer, calling the similarities "striking" and generally shooting from the hip with his feared adjective revolver.
The unfortunate fact about this event is that Bill Shanks is read regularly by a large swath of people, people that rely on him to provide objective, sound, reasoned assessment of the team they love. Sure, they may have other options (the internet), but many of them are willing to take him at his word. Maybe it's because they follow the team casually, or maybe it's because they're ensconced in their opinions and enjoy having them reinforced. Regardless, it is words like those of Shanks' that lead people astray from the reality of this situation: Jason Heyward and Jeff Francoeur couldn't be more different. For him to imply that they are is an insult to the intellectual capacity of his readers.
Let's clear some of the obvious misconceptions. First, Heyward does not have a "rocket" arm. It is average, at best. He is, however, an infinitely better fielder than Francoeur, whose defense peaked in 2007 and has trailed off ever since.
In 2007, Francoeur's best season of his entire career, Francoeur's WAR-value was closer to Heyward's value in 2011 (Heyward's worst season) than it was in Heyward's best (2012). Jeff Francoeur, at his holistic peak, is only worth 1.5 more wins than Jason Heyward at his lowest point.
Francoeur's OBP and OPS fell from 2006-2008. His LD% stayed rather constant, deviating between ~18% and ~20%. His GB% increased ~6% during this time, and his FB% decreased at approximately the same rate. Perhaps most tellingly, runs vales on all pitches declined rapidly over this span of time. To put it simply, he was never a good slider/curve hitter, and his only saving grace was his ability against fastballs. Once he lost that in 2008, any hope of him being an above-average, "Dale Murphy"-type of player was all but out the window.
As for Heyward, his OBP and OPS have taken a hit this year due to his rough start. His walks are down, but so are his strikeouts. He's hitting more line-drives (~6% over his career avg), and his FB% is in-line with his career numbers, meaning he's hitting fewer groundballs. He's also hitting fewer infield-flys, as his percentage is down to 4.8% in 2013, well below his career number of 7.5%. He's not hitting fastballs as well as he did during his rookie season, and his work against lefties leaves a lot to be desired, but he has always been a good offspeed hitter, consistent with what one would expect from a guy with his plate discipline.
None of this is to say that Jason Heyward is a blameless future Hall-of-Famer that can do no wrong. As previously stated, his work against LHP needs to improve, lest Fredi feels compelled to platoon with Reed Johnson. But it's worth keeping in mind that Heyward is just 23, and given the level of ability he has displayed in his young career, a degree of patience is in order. Believing he'll follow the path of a player, whose career for all intents and purposes is finished, is assuming too much too soon. Attempting to pass it off as fact is silliness of the highest order.
The unfortunate fact about this event is that Bill Shanks is read regularly by a large swath of people, people that rely on him to provide objective, sound, reasoned assessment of the team they love. Sure, they may have other options (the internet), but many of them are willing to take him at his word. Maybe it's because they follow the team casually, or maybe it's because they're ensconced in their opinions and enjoy having them reinforced. Regardless, it is words like those of Shanks' that lead people astray from the reality of this situation: Jason Heyward and Jeff Francoeur couldn't be more different. For him to imply that they are is an insult to the intellectual capacity of his readers.
Let's clear some of the obvious misconceptions. First, Heyward does not have a "rocket" arm. It is average, at best. He is, however, an infinitely better fielder than Francoeur, whose defense peaked in 2007 and has trailed off ever since.
In 2007, Francoeur's best season of his entire career, Francoeur's WAR-value was closer to Heyward's value in 2011 (Heyward's worst season) than it was in Heyward's best (2012). Jeff Francoeur, at his holistic peak, is only worth 1.5 more wins than Jason Heyward at his lowest point.
Francoeur's OBP and OPS fell from 2006-2008. His LD% stayed rather constant, deviating between ~18% and ~20%. His GB% increased ~6% during this time, and his FB% decreased at approximately the same rate. Perhaps most tellingly, runs vales on all pitches declined rapidly over this span of time. To put it simply, he was never a good slider/curve hitter, and his only saving grace was his ability against fastballs. Once he lost that in 2008, any hope of him being an above-average, "Dale Murphy"-type of player was all but out the window.
As for Heyward, his OBP and OPS have taken a hit this year due to his rough start. His walks are down, but so are his strikeouts. He's hitting more line-drives (~6% over his career avg), and his FB% is in-line with his career numbers, meaning he's hitting fewer groundballs. He's also hitting fewer infield-flys, as his percentage is down to 4.8% in 2013, well below his career number of 7.5%. He's not hitting fastballs as well as he did during his rookie season, and his work against lefties leaves a lot to be desired, but he has always been a good offspeed hitter, consistent with what one would expect from a guy with his plate discipline.
None of this is to say that Jason Heyward is a blameless future Hall-of-Famer that can do no wrong. As previously stated, his work against LHP needs to improve, lest Fredi feels compelled to platoon with Reed Johnson. But it's worth keeping in mind that Heyward is just 23, and given the level of ability he has displayed in his young career, a degree of patience is in order. Believing he'll follow the path of a player, whose career for all intents and purposes is finished, is assuming too much too soon. Attempting to pass it off as fact is silliness of the highest order.
Tuesday, June 25, 2013
Royals series preview
The Braves travel to Kansas City tonight to play the Royals in a two-game interleague set isolated between two travel days (yesterday and Thursday). KC's Kauffman Stadium is the only ballpark in MLB that the Atlanta franchise has never played in, so tonight's game will be historic, though it's probably not something we'll feel compelled to tell our grandkids about.
The Royals are slowly clawing their way back into the AL playoff picture, trailing Baltimore and New York by five games for the wild card, and Detroit by six-and-a-half in the AL central. By all accounts, this is a must-win season for GM Dayton Moore's franchise and anything short of an above-.500 finish may well cost him his job. With the expectation level set as high as it was, it may take a playoff appearance to do the trick.
The offense has been a bitter disappointment, and the shine has worn off the much-heralded hitters KC has developed in its' farm system. As a team, they are tied for 13th in the AL in wOBA, 13th in wRC+, 11th in OBP, and dead last in ISO. After a particularly slow start to the season, the Royals demoted their hitting coaches and named Hall of Famer George Brett to the position. Though the early returns from the players themselves have been glowing, there has yet to be any sort of tangible difference in the team's play.
The pitching has been better, and the bullpen has been one of the AL's best in terms of ERA and LOB%, but that hasn't been enough to make up for the lack of offensive output. Offseason acquisition James Shields has been as good as advertised, but one can't help but wonder about what KC gave up to get him. Wil Myers would look great in place of Jeff Franceour in RF, and considering the success they've had with their free-agent signings, there's room to question the rationale of such a deal, especially in light of the dearth of offense put on display so far in 2013.
As bad as the Royals offense has been, they've performed better on the road, so it's nice to catch them at home. This is a series that an Atlanta team playing to its' true talent-level should sweep 75% of the time.
Series matchups:
Tonight, 8:10 (local broadcast)
Kris Medlen v. Ervin Santana
Wednesday, 8:10 (local broadcast)
Mike Minor v. Luis Mendoza
Tonight's lineup (this may be my favorite of Fredi's many lineups so far in 2013):
Schafer
Heyward
J Upton
Freeman
McCann
BJ Upton
Uggla
Johnson
Simmons (HOORAY)
(Stadium overlay courtesy of Hit Tracker Online)
Surveying potential trade candidates
MLBTradeRumors founder Tim Dierkes built a custom FanGraphs leaderboard of potential trade targets for contending teams. Dave Cameron, managing editor of FanGraphs, posted an article about the leaderboard here along with a succinct explanation of what the list means, and its' relative subjectivity due to asymmetrical information between teams and the unwashed masses, otherwise known as us.
As it pertains to the Atlanta Braves, it has been established in this blog and other places that at the very least the team will shop for relief pitching this summer, most likely of the left-handed variety. Using Dierkes' list and deductive reasoning, the author will be profiling a player or two per day or two, whatever life allows. These are in no particular order, and as Dave Cameron hinted at, there's no guarantee that some of these guys are even available in a trade scenario. Nevertheless, spit-ballin' here we come!
Glen Perkins, LHP, Minnesota Twins
Perkins is a name Braves fans should be familiar with. He blew a save on May 21st at Turner Field, falling victim to the explosive nature of Evan Gattis' bat. He has toiled in relative anonymity due to the struggles of the Twins, and his numbers in 2011-2012 weren't anything special, but 2013 is a different story. Here are his numbers to date:
It has been nearly a month (May 28) since he has given up a walk, and nearly a month before that came his previous one (May 8). His strength is strikeouts, as is evidenced by his 12.56 K/9, but the most encouraging stats are in his batted ball peripherals. He throws 68.5% first-pitch strikes, and he is inducing 14.9% swinging strikes, a number that is almost double his career average, but has steadily climbed over the course of the past three years as he has morphed from a serviceable reliever to dominant closer. His contact on balls inside the zone has fallen consistently over his career from a high of 94.3% to 80.9% this year. The guy does what you want late-inning relievers to do: miss bats.
He's a fastball/slider guy, typical of closers, and his four-seam and two-seam fastballs are similar in velocity, hovering between 94-95 MPH. The good news about that is that his velocity hasn't diminished over the years so, at least ostensibly, he's still got plenty left in the tank.
He's more inclined to fly balls and line drives when hitters do make contact, good news for a team with a strong outfield such as the Braves. Batters have a .254 BABIP against Perkins, a number that should improve pitching in front of a Braves defense that is better than Minnesota's.
Perkins is under contract through 2015 ($2.8M in 2013, $3.5M in 2014 and 2015) with a team option for 2016 of $4.5M. It is not common practice for the Braves to take on large contracts for bullpen arms, as their ability to call up guys making league-minimum is more fitting for a club that needs to maximize the efficiency of every dollar spent. As a club that most likely won't contend for another year or two, the Twins will certainly want prospects in return, and GM Terry Ryan has made it no secret that they plan to build around pitching. These barriers may prove tough to circumvent for Atlanta, but in a context-neutral environment, if there's a guy that is anything close to a "perfect fit" for the Braves' bullpen, Glen Perkins is it.
As it pertains to the Atlanta Braves, it has been established in this blog and other places that at the very least the team will shop for relief pitching this summer, most likely of the left-handed variety. Using Dierkes' list and deductive reasoning, the author will be profiling a player or two per day or two, whatever life allows. These are in no particular order, and as Dave Cameron hinted at, there's no guarantee that some of these guys are even available in a trade scenario. Nevertheless, spit-ballin' here we come!
Glen Perkins, LHP, Minnesota Twins
Perkins is a name Braves fans should be familiar with. He blew a save on May 21st at Turner Field, falling victim to the explosive nature of Evan Gattis' bat. He has toiled in relative anonymity due to the struggles of the Twins, and his numbers in 2011-2012 weren't anything special, but 2013 is a different story. Here are his numbers to date:
It has been nearly a month (May 28) since he has given up a walk, and nearly a month before that came his previous one (May 8). His strength is strikeouts, as is evidenced by his 12.56 K/9, but the most encouraging stats are in his batted ball peripherals. He throws 68.5% first-pitch strikes, and he is inducing 14.9% swinging strikes, a number that is almost double his career average, but has steadily climbed over the course of the past three years as he has morphed from a serviceable reliever to dominant closer. His contact on balls inside the zone has fallen consistently over his career from a high of 94.3% to 80.9% this year. The guy does what you want late-inning relievers to do: miss bats.
He's a fastball/slider guy, typical of closers, and his four-seam and two-seam fastballs are similar in velocity, hovering between 94-95 MPH. The good news about that is that his velocity hasn't diminished over the years so, at least ostensibly, he's still got plenty left in the tank.
He's more inclined to fly balls and line drives when hitters do make contact, good news for a team with a strong outfield such as the Braves. Batters have a .254 BABIP against Perkins, a number that should improve pitching in front of a Braves defense that is better than Minnesota's.
Perkins is under contract through 2015 ($2.8M in 2013, $3.5M in 2014 and 2015) with a team option for 2016 of $4.5M. It is not common practice for the Braves to take on large contracts for bullpen arms, as their ability to call up guys making league-minimum is more fitting for a club that needs to maximize the efficiency of every dollar spent. As a club that most likely won't contend for another year or two, the Twins will certainly want prospects in return, and GM Terry Ryan has made it no secret that they plan to build around pitching. These barriers may prove tough to circumvent for Atlanta, but in a context-neutral environment, if there's a guy that is anything close to a "perfect fit" for the Braves' bullpen, Glen Perkins is it.
Monday, June 24, 2013
Offensive team leaders
After starting the season red-hot offensively, the Braves have slowly sunk toward the median of all MLB teams in terms of overall output. Their play for the month of June finds them in the bottom 40% or worse in many metrics, and it's disturbing to think about how much worse their record could be if the pitching wasn't performing up to its' current standards. With that said, here are some leaders in categories of interest on offense (note: players with less than 100 ABs are not considered, so no Laird, Rev, or Reed Johnson).
BB%:
1. Dan Uggla (15.2%)
2. Justin Upton (14.4%)
3. Jordan Schafer (13.2%)
4. Brian McCann (11.1%)
5. BJ Upton (10.5%)
...
last: Andrelton Simmons (5%)
No real surprises here, although Schafer may seem like a surprise. His career BB% is 10.6%, so while he has outperformed that to this point, he's reaching the necessary amount of plate appearances for the stat to stabilize. For a leadoff guy, Simmons' number is extremely low.
wOBA:
1. Jordan Schafer (.384)
2. Evan Gattis (.373)
3. Chris Johnson (.359)
4. Freddie Freeman (.359)
5. Brian McCann (.349)
...
last: BJ Upton (.262)
Jordan Schafer is outperforming his career number (.289) by nearly 100 points, so it's safe to say he won't maintain that level of production throughout the season. However, we are reaching the point where an adjustment of expectations for him may be warranted. No, he's not going to turn into Shin-Soo Choo, but he's clearly better than the proto-Schafer that drew such ire from the Atlanta media a few years ago.
BJ Upton's slow start has doomed his ability to achieve high marks in this category, but as we're seeing, past performance isn't a true indicator of future ability.
ISO:
1. Evan Gattis (.333)
2. Justin Upton (.214)
3. Brian McCann (.213)
4. Dan Uggla (.199)
5. Ramiro Pena (.165)
...
last: Andrelton Simmons (.088)
Again, nothing surpris...wait, PENA? Yes, Ramiro Pena has hit for more power than Heyward, Freeman, Chris Johnson, etc. Yes, it has come in 107 ABs and will almost certainly fall, but let's enjoy it while we can. Sadly, three pitchers have higher ISOs than Simmons (Hudson, Medlen, Minor), and while that's indicative of nothing due to their lack of ABs, it certainly jumps off the page when looking at the stat.
OPS:
1. Evan Gattis (.894)
2. Jordan Schafer (.876)
3. Chris Johnson (.830)
4. Freddie Freeman (.822)
5. Brian McCann (.805)
...
last: BJ Upton (.589)
Schafer's position on this list is primarily due to his high OBP, whereas the inverse is true for Gattis, whose prodigious power has him first on the list. BJ finds himself last on another list, but if his recent performance is any indication, that won't last long.
wRC+
1. Jordan Schafer (147)
2. Evan Gattis (140)
3. Chris Johnson (130)
4. Freddie Freeman (130)
5. Brian McCann (123)
...
last: BJ Upton (63)
None of this should be surprising given the performance of the players listed. Again, Upton should be out of the doghouse if his recent performance keeps up, as he trails Simmons by only 6 points.
BABIP:
1. Jordan Schafer (.418)
2. Chris Johnson (.401)
3. Freddie Freeman (.368)
4. Ramiro Pena (.312)
5. Justin Upton (.289)
...
last: BJ Upton (.230)
This stat gives us some insight as to why Schafer and Johnson rank so highly in so many different categories. Schafer's speed lends itself to a higher BABIP by virtue of the fact that he gets down the line faster and can beat out weak grounders in the infield. Johnson doesn't have that quality, and while he's a good hitter, this number can be expected to fall, along with the other peripheral statistics in which he has performed well. Not to say that he's going to turn into an offensive black hole, just that he has gotten somewhat lucky so far, especially when you consider his LD% rate is right in-line with his career average (23.7% in 2013 v. 23.9%). Freddie Freeman's number may drop some, too, but he's a line-drive hitter, and his LD% has steadily increased over the course of his career. One can probably expect to see his BABIP number somewhere in the neighborhood of .350 at the end of the season.
Coming into the season, it was widely assumed this would be an all-or-nothing offense, and with 11 zero-run efforts on the ledger to go along with a few 10-0-style laughers, that assessment isn't far off. The second half of the season should see the emergence of Heyward, BJ Upton, and McCann as consistent threats (to varying degrees), and if that happens, the second-half version of this list could look very different.
BB%:
1. Dan Uggla (15.2%)
2. Justin Upton (14.4%)
3. Jordan Schafer (13.2%)
4. Brian McCann (11.1%)
5. BJ Upton (10.5%)
...
last: Andrelton Simmons (5%)
No real surprises here, although Schafer may seem like a surprise. His career BB% is 10.6%, so while he has outperformed that to this point, he's reaching the necessary amount of plate appearances for the stat to stabilize. For a leadoff guy, Simmons' number is extremely low.
wOBA:
1. Jordan Schafer (.384)
2. Evan Gattis (.373)
3. Chris Johnson (.359)
4. Freddie Freeman (.359)
5. Brian McCann (.349)
...
last: BJ Upton (.262)
Jordan Schafer is outperforming his career number (.289) by nearly 100 points, so it's safe to say he won't maintain that level of production throughout the season. However, we are reaching the point where an adjustment of expectations for him may be warranted. No, he's not going to turn into Shin-Soo Choo, but he's clearly better than the proto-Schafer that drew such ire from the Atlanta media a few years ago.
BJ Upton's slow start has doomed his ability to achieve high marks in this category, but as we're seeing, past performance isn't a true indicator of future ability.
ISO:
1. Evan Gattis (.333)
2. Justin Upton (.214)
3. Brian McCann (.213)
4. Dan Uggla (.199)
5. Ramiro Pena (.165)
...
last: Andrelton Simmons (.088)
Again, nothing surpris...wait, PENA? Yes, Ramiro Pena has hit for more power than Heyward, Freeman, Chris Johnson, etc. Yes, it has come in 107 ABs and will almost certainly fall, but let's enjoy it while we can. Sadly, three pitchers have higher ISOs than Simmons (Hudson, Medlen, Minor), and while that's indicative of nothing due to their lack of ABs, it certainly jumps off the page when looking at the stat.
OPS:
1. Evan Gattis (.894)
2. Jordan Schafer (.876)
3. Chris Johnson (.830)
4. Freddie Freeman (.822)
5. Brian McCann (.805)
...
last: BJ Upton (.589)
Schafer's position on this list is primarily due to his high OBP, whereas the inverse is true for Gattis, whose prodigious power has him first on the list. BJ finds himself last on another list, but if his recent performance is any indication, that won't last long.
wRC+
1. Jordan Schafer (147)
2. Evan Gattis (140)
3. Chris Johnson (130)
4. Freddie Freeman (130)
5. Brian McCann (123)
...
last: BJ Upton (63)
None of this should be surprising given the performance of the players listed. Again, Upton should be out of the doghouse if his recent performance keeps up, as he trails Simmons by only 6 points.
BABIP:
1. Jordan Schafer (.418)
2. Chris Johnson (.401)
3. Freddie Freeman (.368)
4. Ramiro Pena (.312)
5. Justin Upton (.289)
...
last: BJ Upton (.230)
This stat gives us some insight as to why Schafer and Johnson rank so highly in so many different categories. Schafer's speed lends itself to a higher BABIP by virtue of the fact that he gets down the line faster and can beat out weak grounders in the infield. Johnson doesn't have that quality, and while he's a good hitter, this number can be expected to fall, along with the other peripheral statistics in which he has performed well. Not to say that he's going to turn into an offensive black hole, just that he has gotten somewhat lucky so far, especially when you consider his LD% rate is right in-line with his career average (23.7% in 2013 v. 23.9%). Freddie Freeman's number may drop some, too, but he's a line-drive hitter, and his LD% has steadily increased over the course of his career. One can probably expect to see his BABIP number somewhere in the neighborhood of .350 at the end of the season.
Coming into the season, it was widely assumed this would be an all-or-nothing offense, and with 11 zero-run efforts on the ledger to go along with a few 10-0-style laughers, that assessment isn't far off. The second half of the season should see the emergence of Heyward, BJ Upton, and McCann as consistent threats (to varying degrees), and if that happens, the second-half version of this list could look very different.
Sunday, June 23, 2013
Series recap and a thought about Ks
Much to the chagrin of fantasy owners everywhere, the Braves could only muster seven runs for the entire series against the Brewers, despite facing a battered pitching staff in a park that hemorrhages homers. Peralta and Hand obliged to the Braves' wishes to see who could pop the ball straight up in the air the furthest, posting what will most likely be their best lines of the entire season against Atlanta.
The collective team wOBA was a paltry .262 for the series, skewed by today's .443 effort. Although the team was able to coax eight walks in the first two games, their patience was left wanting with runners on base. It was the first time the Braves had been shutout back-to-back in 2013.
It was reported over the weekend that Ramiro Pena will have his shoulder looked at tomorrow, and that Justin Upton's absence for the past two games was due to a sore hand. Losing Pena is a big deal, as his replacements (Janish and Pastornicky) are inferior as a whole, though Janish may be better defensively and Pastornicky is probably at least his equal offensively. Losing Upton seems like a huge deal based off brand recognition alone, and it certainly hurts, but considering his play during any month that isn't April (as well as that of Schafer), a few days off may not be that bad for him. Looking at his performance and keeping in mind his dizzying array of swings-and-misses, one is compelled to wonder if this isn't an issue that has lingered for a while. If the Braves didn't have a six-game lead in the east, he may be more inclined to play through it, but luckily, they can afford to take him out of the lineup and get him the rest he needs. Justin Upton playing at 100% is crucial to this team's chances of making and succeeding in the playoffs.
There has been a great amount of hand-wringing over the amount of strikeouts the Braves have accumulated and many people point to that statistic as the definitive reason for their struggles offensively. Including today's game, the Braves are striking out 8.77 times per game. During losses, the average number is 9.79, and during wins, it's an even 8. Strikeouts have a run-value of -.301, versus non-strikeouts events having a -.299 run-value. In others words, there's a difference, but it's moot, and certainly not something that can be viewed as the culprit for the Braves' struggles offensively.
The collective team wOBA was a paltry .262 for the series, skewed by today's .443 effort. Although the team was able to coax eight walks in the first two games, their patience was left wanting with runners on base. It was the first time the Braves had been shutout back-to-back in 2013.
It was reported over the weekend that Ramiro Pena will have his shoulder looked at tomorrow, and that Justin Upton's absence for the past two games was due to a sore hand. Losing Pena is a big deal, as his replacements (Janish and Pastornicky) are inferior as a whole, though Janish may be better defensively and Pastornicky is probably at least his equal offensively. Losing Upton seems like a huge deal based off brand recognition alone, and it certainly hurts, but considering his play during any month that isn't April (as well as that of Schafer), a few days off may not be that bad for him. Looking at his performance and keeping in mind his dizzying array of swings-and-misses, one is compelled to wonder if this isn't an issue that has lingered for a while. If the Braves didn't have a six-game lead in the east, he may be more inclined to play through it, but luckily, they can afford to take him out of the lineup and get him the rest he needs. Justin Upton playing at 100% is crucial to this team's chances of making and succeeding in the playoffs.
There has been a great amount of hand-wringing over the amount of strikeouts the Braves have accumulated and many people point to that statistic as the definitive reason for their struggles offensively. Including today's game, the Braves are striking out 8.77 times per game. During losses, the average number is 9.79, and during wins, it's an even 8. Strikeouts have a run-value of -.301, versus non-strikeouts events having a -.299 run-value. In others words, there's a difference, but it's moot, and certainly not something that can be viewed as the culprit for the Braves' struggles offensively.
Friday, June 21, 2013
Simmons can't stay at the top
Andrelton Simmons has been hitting at the top of the lineup for the majority of this season without much success. Among all leadoff men with at least 150 plate appearances, Simmons ranks last in OBP (.258), next to last in OPS (.569, 21 points ahead of Ben Revere), BB/PA (.042), pitches per plate appearance (3.50) and perhaps most tellingly, next to last in runs created (12.7, behind Eric Young Jr, who was dfa'd by the Rockies earlier this week).
His IFFB%, a staggering 18.2%, is the ninth-highest in MLB. He's taking more first-pitch strikes, more pitches in the strike zone (~40% in 2013 to ~36% for his career), and swinging at fewer pitches relative to his career numbers (~44% in 2013 to ~47% for his career). For some hitters with good plate discipline, that's not necessarily a bad thing. In the case of Simmons, who sees fewer pitches per plate appearance than the majority of his peers, it's not doing him any favors. He has only seen a 3-0 count twelve times the entire season. After an 0-1 count, his OBP is .247.
For a guy that is getting more at-bats than anyone on the team, it's curious as to why lack of production hasn't cost him his place in the lineup. A look at his peripheral statistics doesn't offer much hope of him turning it around. Continuing to hit him at the top is putting the team at a disadvantage, however marginal the difference may be.
(Stats via FanGraphs and ESPN)
His IFFB%, a staggering 18.2%, is the ninth-highest in MLB. He's taking more first-pitch strikes, more pitches in the strike zone (~40% in 2013 to ~36% for his career), and swinging at fewer pitches relative to his career numbers (~44% in 2013 to ~47% for his career). For some hitters with good plate discipline, that's not necessarily a bad thing. In the case of Simmons, who sees fewer pitches per plate appearance than the majority of his peers, it's not doing him any favors. He has only seen a 3-0 count twelve times the entire season. After an 0-1 count, his OBP is .247.
For a guy that is getting more at-bats than anyone on the team, it's curious as to why lack of production hasn't cost him his place in the lineup. A look at his peripheral statistics doesn't offer much hope of him turning it around. Continuing to hit him at the top is putting the team at a disadvantage, however marginal the difference may be.
(Stats via FanGraphs and ESPN)
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