Setting the tone for winter

What a bizarre post-apocalyptic landscape the Atlanta sports scene has become a little more than 24 hours after the season's final loss.  As if things couldn't get any weirder, Mike Axisa dropped this little nugget yesterday around lunch:

"Evidently, Braves players were not happy Jones had gone on the radio earlier in the day with the team's flagship station, 680 The Fan, and predicted the Dodgers would win the NLDS in four games. So no player volunteered to catch the pitch."

If you believe the national media, the ethos of the Braves runs parallel with that of Ebenezer Scrooge, and they've got plenty of "evidence" to retroactively apply the narrative to, citing the Jose Fernandez and Carlos Gomez incidents as prime examples of Atlanta's proclivity to suck the fun out of the game.  That's a very reactionary stance but completely unsurprising given the source.  However, it's good that the media is bringing attention to the situation, even if their intent was misguided, as it deserves to be analyzed from all sides.  Let's start with the team.

This team demonstrated an acute ability to overcome adversity since before the start of the season, but that's very different than exceeding expectations, something they did not do.  As the injuries piled up toward the end of the year, there had to be a sense of disbelief on the part of the players with regard to their misfortune.  Couple that with the general nature of a team environment, not to mention the plethora of pundits that doubted the Braves ability to withstand the onslaught, and you've got a recipe for an "us against the world" mentality.  The Fernandez and Gomez incidents, as well as the crazy mid-September series with the Nats, likely solidified those feelings further, and perhaps losing the race for the best record on the season's final day added a toxic, cynical element to it.  We'll likely never know for sure.

So for Chipper Jones, the face of the franchise for two decades, a guy that is known and (I assume) respected by most within the clubhouse, to come out and pick against them on the city's most listened-to sports radio station had to feel like dissension in the ranks.  To not get the vote of confidence from a high-profile figure in a very visible situation is probably extremely annoying and frustrating.  To ostracize that person is symptomatic of the aforementioned mentality ruling the day.

Now, Chipper's perspective is much simpler to understand, but it should be prefaced with this: if there's anything we've come to find out about Chipper since his retirement, it's that he's not afraid to speak his mind in any medium, be it social media, local sports radio, or elsewhere.  He's a somewhat controversial figure.  Instead of drinking the Kool-Aid, he weighed variables many Braves followers were either ignorant of or weren't willing to consider.  Oh, and it turns out he was exactly right.  

As polarizing as Chipper can be, I find it hard to believe that he would go on 680 The Fan with the intention of alienating himself from the very team that he helped build.  He calls it like he sees it, and like many others, he saw a Dodger team radically different from the one the Braves handled with ease back in the summer.  Had he been wrong, the narrative would be "Braves win in spite of Chipper's prediction; Won't let him share in their reindeer games" or something like that.  

So, what do we know?  We know that each side is justified in their initial feeling - the Braves and their isolationist mentality, Chipper and his objectivity - and we know that each side is suffering from a bruised ego, likely adding fuel to the fire.  But both sides are also foolishly wrong.  

The team has no business shunning Chipper.  Even if they don't like him taking to the radio to pronounce his skepticism, you don't rob him of the privilege of throwing out the first pitch of the playoffs at Turner Field.  Why?  Because he built that stadium the same way Babe Ruth built Yankee Stadium.  That in and of itself is worthy of respect.  To take that away from him is not only disrespectful toward Chipper, but also the franchise and to the game itself.  He has earned the right to say what he wants with regards to this team.  Whether or not what he says is worth listening to is another story, but that doesn't change the fact that he has put in the necessary work to be able to take that stage.  

Why Chipper felt compelled to go on 680 and pick LA to win in four is something I will never understand.  Sure, he was right.  His unflinching honesty is refreshing in an era dominated by non-answers and coach-speak.  But how important is to be right in this situation?  Who benefits from this (correct) prediction?  No one does.  Chipper could not have anticipated this backlash; none of us could have.  It's a rather immature reaction on behalf of an entire team of grown men.  But why was he there in the first place?  Was he trying to light a fire under their asses to help motivate them?  Regardless of intent, outcomes are what they are, and while it's clear that the team is being silly in the way it reacted to this, it's worth wondering why the hell Chipper felt compelled to say any of it to begin with.  Being right in this situation doesn't come with any accolades; he's not Nate freaking Silver during the 2012 election.  A modicum of tact is called for when you're in the position Chipper is in.  It's the Heisenberg principle - the observer is part of the system.

The very public airing of dirty laundry (or as I like to call it, "club business") is not something Atlanta fans are accustomed to.  In my 22 years following this team, I struggle to recall a situation similar to this - the David Justice fiasco back in '95 is the only thing that comes immediately to mind.  Spats such as this are part of the game - hell, they're part of life - but keeping them behind closed doors is of utmost importance.  If no one is willing to catch a pitch from Chipper, Fredi needs to grab a glove and spare him the humiliation.  And the last place Chipper needs to vent is to the idiots on Twitter who, when left to their own devices, will help to foster an environment in which this turns into a much bigger deal than it needs to be. 

There are a few different takeaways from this situation I'd like to highlight.  First, as is so often the case, the degrees of right and wrong for each side are difficult to measure from an outsider's perspective, and while that ambivalence may be perplexing to some, the truth is that both sides are more wrong than they are right.  Second, someone in this organization needs to put a stop to this, whether it's Gonzalez, Wren, Schuerholz, Cox, McGuirk; someone, anyone.  The longer this festers, the worse it will get.  Finally, there's a good chance that this very public and entirely superfluous ordeal is symptomatic of a larger issue within the clubhouse environment.  Without access to the team it's hard to even speculate as to what the issue may be, but something is there.  Teams don't cut off their nose to spite their face on a whim.  Conveniently, we've got all winter to diagnose it. 

Marginal Efficiency

The concept of marginal efficiency is fascinating as it relates to baseball.  In the context of the regular season, it is largely ignored by practically all fans, and likely a substantial amount of men working in the game as managers, players, etc.  Making decisions at the margin is often fraught with weighing myriad repercussions as a manager ponders the best way to leverage the talent at his disposal.  Over the course of 162 games, the impact of these individual decisions can carry on largely unnoticed, and the positive/negative effects therein are also easy to overlook. 

Until they're not.  The playoffs essentially act as a magnifying glass, exposing the good and bad with unrelenting and indiscriminate zealousness.  Due to the fleeting nature of the games, the marginal dynamic goes from being of little significance to, literally, life and death.  Knowing how to make that adjustment is paramount to a manager's ability to do his job. 

You can talk to me about losing Venters and O'Flaherty.  You can talk about losing Huddy and Beachy, Maholm falling apart, BJ and Dan Uggla playing their way out of starting jobs, and the rash of injuries that have plagued this team all season long.  The list goes on, and each point is valid, helping to paint the picture of a team that, quite frankly, had no business winning 96 games to begin with.  This team made the playoffs in spite of all of that. 

A manager leverages talent in order to maximize their potential for a positive impact in any given situation.  This concept transcends baseball.  Last night, Fredi managed the 8th inning as if it were any other game.  He either wasn't aware of the stakes, chose to ignore them, or genuinely thought that his chosen course was the best option.  All of those scenarios are wholly unacceptable and entirely unbecoming of a manager of the Atlanta Braves. 

There is a lot to like about this franchise.  There is an abundance of young talent, the front office has proved to be very savvy when it comes to developing and dealing with/for said talent, and the fan base is as loyal and passionate as any in baseball, despite being skewered by the national media for the better part of two decades.  But you're only as strong as your weakest link, and with three seasons of data with which to judge, the returns are trending toward that weakest link being Fredi Gonzalez's instincts.  No, he can't help the injuries, nor can he make BJ and Uggla back into what they were.  He can only control what he controls directly: the marginal efficiency of the team itself.  Unfortunately, it is in that position that a manager of his caliber is most dangerous.

Take a second to catch your breath

The Braves find themselves in a good position after the first two games of the NLDS.  The series now moves to LA for two games, Sunday night at 8:07, and Monday night at 9:37.  That's right - I said 9:37 PM, on a work/school night.  But then I remembered that tomorrow's showdown between the NFL's Chargers and Raiders doesn't start until 11-freaking-30.  This must be what it's like to be an American sports fan living in western Europe.  I shudder to think.

From the perspective of the Braves, the biggest variable they had to account for going into this series was Kershaw, and he showed why in game one.  That guy is unbelievable, and he wasn't even on his A-game.  You will be hard-pressed to find anyone that really thought the Braves were going to touch him up for a few runs, but the degree of sloppiness from the Atlanta defense was equally unfathomable, particularly from Elliot Johnson. 

Gattis also had a less-than-stellar showing, but the bar isn't set as high for him defensively.  Him making a play on a hard-sinking liner with some tail is about as likely as me winning an award for most hair.  With that said, his baserunning mistake, while it may not have made much of a difference anyway, was rather egregious.  You can't put yourself in that situation with Puig's arm in RF.  That's a fundamental mistake on his part.

Ultimately, defensive issues or not, game one against Kershaw is a tough way to start the series.  Without an equally impressive performance by the opposing starter (which didn't happen) and no fielding miscues (also didn't happen), beating him is a tall order. 

It's worth noting, too, that teams who faced Kershaw twice within a span of a couple weeks always fared better the second time around, which is consistent with what you'd expect from any pitcher.  As daunting a prospect as it may seem to face him twice in a five-game series, it could work out in Atlanta's favor. 

______

Winning last night's game was absolutely essential if the Braves are to advance, and win they did.  They won in a fashion that is not foreign to this team - flashy defense, good starting pitching, timely hitting from the BABIP King Chris Johnson - so that's a reason to feel encouraged.  Plus, they beat the Dodgers' No. 1A pitcher in Greinke, and even rattled the cage of LA's second-best reliever, Paco Rodriguez.

I wasn't really crazy about seeing McCann come out of the game with a few innings left to play, but I also understand that one run in that situation means the world.  But why would you ask Simmons to lay down a bunt to move the runners over for Elliot Johnson?  That's asking a lot of a guy that is a defense-first type of player.  Had LA not inexplicably walked Constanza and allowed Heyward to do his thing, that move probably gets magnified and dissected by pundits and prognosticators ad nauseum.

______

BJ Upton needs to start game three in CF.  Gattis is not a good fielder - it's ok, he has never portended himself to be - and there's no reason to set him up to fail on a big stage in a hostile stadium whose outfield he has never patrolled.  Plus, he hasn't exactly been raking lately, nor is he an OBP machine.  He really shouldn't be starting any of these games in the OF, but if it has to happen, it can't happen outside of Turner Field.

See you on Tuesday.  

Ughla and the Dahjas

The Braves released their NLDS roster today, and without getting into too much detail (the full list can be found here), they made some interesting moves at the margins.  Chiefly, the lack of Dan Uggla and Paul Maholm (more on them later), but also the exclusion of Joey Terdoslavich and Scott Downs, not to mention David Hale getting a spot.

Looking at this roster, one thing becomes immediately clear to anyone that has been paying attention this season: defense.  Not just defense, but DEFENSE.  If the Falcons continue to bomb, we may see the D + picket fence combo in the Turner Field stands.  And why not?  The dynamic in the playoffs is entirely at odds with the dynamic of the season.  Ask Brooks Conrad how big a defensive miscalculation can turn out to be. 

That's why Uggla isn't here.  We all know what he has done with the bat, but he hasn't done much lately.  If his glove were even league-average, he'd almost certainly be a sure thing for a spot.  Instead, Janson (Janish/Johnson, pronounced YAHN-son) gets the spot, and during a series in which defense could play a huge role, there's really no valid argument against that.  These games are too important.  On a side note, one has to wonder what this means for Uggla's career as a Brave.  He's a three-time All-Star that wants to play, so this is a really tough situation for him.  The dynamic between him and the front office has probably seen better days.  That's a situation that will command more attention down the road.

Also, with regard to Maholm: he has almost certainly thrown his last pitch as a Brave, barring being added to the NLCS roster, if the Braves make it that far.  He turned out to be a very shrewd addition by Frank Wren, and I wish him well in his journey. 

______
 

Now, onto LA.  I have not made it a secret that I do not like this match up.  At the same time, the caveats are what they are.  Kershaw, Greinke, and Ryu may as well be Koufax, Sutton, and Walter friggin' Johnson.  If the Braves are going to hit it doesn't really matter who is pitching.  Their volatility will make or break them.  I'd cite some regular season stats to back this up, but this is playoff time.  You can't take a huge data set like that and expect to make it fit within a five-game series; it is entirely disproportionate.  Random outcomes within that small of a sample size simply can't be accounted for in a predictive, meaningful way.

That's the magic of playoff baseball.  Anything can happen.  It's somewhat daunting to "let go" of stats, of reason, of logic, of the metrics that can be used to assess and investigate the game.  At the same time, it's also liberating.  It extracts the cold, unfeeling data and analysis and replaces it with the whimsical, carefree enjoyment of fall baseball.  It is very gratifying to apply statistical methodology to this game, and doing so is essential to gaining a deeper, more enriched knowledge and appreciation of the game itself and the men who make their living playing it.  But to do so without balancing it with the occasional suspension of concern for those very principles it to do one's self, and the essence of the game, a grave injustice.

Braves take it in five.  Heyward or Medlen is the MVP. 

See you on the other side.