Friday, August 30, 2013

Marlins series...ugh, who cares?

Look, I know you're sick of reading about the Marlins, and quite frankly, I'm sick of writing about them.  They have sucked this year, but they've got a nice foundation of talent to build around for the future.  They're not a team of any consequence as it relates to the playoffs, so that's as far as I'm going to go with that.  

Atlanta isn't a city that is known for diehard fans, particularly when it comes to baseball.  The announced attendance at last night's game was ~22K, but given the authority afforded to me by virtue of my attendance, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that's not even close.  Try 15K.  The traffic heading into the stadium was thin, the pedestrian traffic even more so.  The Nalley lot was half-empty, as was the Green lot.  It was one of the quietest crowds I've witnessed first-hand.  When Brian McCann hit his homer, the crowd didn't even start cheering until the ball cleared the fence.  The guy sitting behind me, a native Clevelander who seemed to think that Medlen only throws fastballs and changeups, remarked about the dull crowd: "This is a first place team!" he said, "Where is everyone?"  His buddy promptly informed him that the Falcons were playing a meaningless preseason game less than five miles away, not to mention live SEC football on TV, and that explanation is as fitting as any I suppose.  It's almost September.  The division is decided.  While this is the best team in baseball, they're on cruise control for the next month, and I can't say I blame my fellow Georgites from wanting to indulge in some football, be it pro or college, if for no other reason than to break up the monotony.

With 29 games remaining, the Braves have a better-than-average chance of reaching the 100-win mark for the first time since the 2003 Braves went 101-59.  They'll need to go 19-10 to make that happen, and when you look at the remaining schedule, there's no reason to think they can't pull that off.  Winning 100 games will almost certainly distinguish them as the team with the best record in the NL, barring a late surge by LA and StL, though realistically, 96 wins should clinch it.  Given the what the situation looked like entering this season, that's an impressive accomplishment by Frank Wren and Fredi Gonzalez.

So while the remaining games won't exactly have a playoff feel to them, there's still plenty of reasons to watch or be in attendance.  Tonight's pitcher for Miami, Jose Fernandez, is as good a reason as any.  So far the Braves have missed him in each series they've played against the Fish, but their number finally comes up tonight.

Fernandez's performance in 2013 has been a silver lining in an otherwise disastrous season for Miami, and he stands out amongst a particularly strong rookie class that includes the likes of Matt Harvey, Shelby Miller, and the Braves' own Julio Teheran.  He is 2nd only to Harvey in FIP amongst rookie starters at 2.65, and he boasts a tERA and SIERA of 3.40 and 3.22, respectively.  He's not a guy that relies on smoke-and-mirrors to do the dirty work, instead, he boasts excellent command and control of his pitches.  His fastball sits in the mid-90's, and he features a plus curve that serves as his out-pitch.  Here it is in all its' glory:


He can also throw a change and a slider in any count, and it's not often that he misses his spots with these pitches.  He doesn't give up many homers, though part of that is likely attributable to the cavernous expanse of territory known as Marlins Park.

Fernandez flew through the Marlins' minor league system, pitching less than 150 total innings above rookie ball.  He was on the national prospect radar before the season, but the consensus at that time was that the Fish would wait until late this season or even 2014 to call him up.  Doing so would have been in their best interests as it would delay the start of his arbitration clock, not to mention they had nothing to gain from him dominating at the major league level since they had no chance of competing anyway.  Despite all of that circumstance, they called him anyway, and haven't looked back.  It may not be what Andrew Friedman would do, but then again, this is Jeffrey Loria we're talking about.  He doesn't have to make sense.

This guy is an excellent young pitcher, and although the upcoming series probably isn't very compelling for some baseball-weary members of Braves country, if you have to watch one game from it, tonight's game is the one.  This may be the only opportunity we get to see this kid pitch until next season, so make the most of it. 

Series matchups:

Tonight, 7:30 (local broadcast)

Jose Fernandez v. Julio Teheran (watch this game!)

Saturday, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Jacob Turner v. Mike Minor

Sunday, 5:00 (local broadcast)

Nate Eovaldi v. Alex Wood (underrated matchup here!)

(Stats via FanGraphs)

Thursday, August 29, 2013

Back into the swing of things

I suppose it's safe to come out now.  After a sudden rash of injuries and less-than stellar offensive showings, the team seems to be, again, rising from the mat before the ref hits five.  Not unlike the bizarrely wet summer Georgites have dealt with, the Braves have been inundated with trips to the DL, doctor's visits, and nagging issues.  Their ability to fight through it all and win the division, the quality of the competition notwithstanding, is impressive; maintaining the best record in the game even more so. 

Tonight, for the last time in the regular season, the Braves will match up against a team that could be considered in the "playoff hunt", although Cleveland is a borderline contender at best.  Tonight's game will mark only the 44th game against a "playoff caliber" team that Atlanta has been involved in all season.  In the 43 games prior, their record is 25-18.  That record comes against PIT, KC, DET, CIN, AZ, LAD, StL, and CLE.  That's almost a .600 winning percentage, rougly consistent with the type of ball the Braves have played all season.  If the total number of games against good teams seems rather low, remember that Washington was supposed to be much better, and if we include them in this picture, the Braves' record jumps to 37-22, a win percentage of .627.

Although the injuries have piled up in a way not often seen, the Braves have had some good fortune this year.  Washington tanking is far and away the biggest contributor to that surplus.  Though the health issues have been abundant, very few of them have been serious.  The unfortunate ones that are serious have been dealt with accordingly without the win/loss record suffering.  That's all well and good for the regular season, but the playoffs are another matter. 

The most important angle with regard to this team right now is the health of Jason Heyward.  He's the key to this team doing more than just winning the division.  Schafer appears to be a viable platoon option in CF with BJ, but there is a rather expansive gap in his game versus Jason's game.  That's no slight to Jordan, a guy that has really stepped up this season, just a fact.  This is still a good team without Heyward, but he's the catalyst that takes it from good to great. 


Friday, August 23, 2013

Another day, another injury

Wake up.  Coffee.  Let the dogs out, give them some food.  Let the wife out, give her some food.  Let myself out, give myself some food.  Do some light reading whilst enjoying a rare glimpse of sunlight in the greater metropolitan area.  What's that?  Another Braves player is hurt?  It can't be!  I suppose that comes with the territory when your team is made up of the elderly, the sick, and the dying. 

At least, that's how it feels.  The Heyward injury ostensibly seemed to be the climax of the injuries amongst the Braves; it was brutal, it came late in the season, and he's our best player.  What could possibly be worse than that? 

Well, Brandon Beachy is going to visit with Dr. James Andrews on Monday thanks to some elbow soreness he experienced in the last inning of his start against the Mets.  Considering he's fresh off of the DL from his Tommy John surgery, this is the absolute last thing anyone wants to see.  I'm struggling to remember a time when a player went to Dr. Andrews and came back with a full green-light to keep pitching.  I'm sure it has happened, but the instances are few and far between. 

As for expectations of coming out of this, a best-case scenario is for Beachy to miss his start against St. Louis, and maybe one more after that, then resume pitching.  Worst-case scenario is that he's done for 2013 and most of 2014.  While the Braves didn't need Beachy to be the Beachy he was in 2012, not having him at all makes things very tricky going forward.  Without him, the Braves rotation looks like this:

Minor
Teheran
Medlen
Wood
Maholm

The old adage "you can never have too much pitching" definitely applies here.  That rotation is good enough to hold down the fort until the playoffs, and from that point on you only need three starters anyway, which I assume would be Minor, Teheran, and Medlen, although Wood may be able to slide in there if he keeps up the good work, or if they face a lefty-heavy lineup in the NLDS.  Maholm is perfectly capable as a fifth starter, and he can transition to a swing-man role in the playoffs. 

This team has fought adversity all season.  They have stayed in, and now lead, the race for the best record in spite of the injuries.  Questioning their resilience this late in the season, with a large body of evidence plainly showing that they are capable of defying the odds, would be rather uncouth. 

Regardless, the question looms and becomes increasingly louder each day. 

Thursday, August 22, 2013

Brief Cards preview

It's all downhill from here, folks.  This trip to St. Louis will be the last one the Braves take to a city with a team over .500.  Nothing but bears (Cubs), beer (Brewers), and Battlestar Galactica other sub-par teams from this point forward.  Well, except the Indians, but they're probably a tier below both Atlanta and St. Louis.

While the Braves are essentially on cruise-control until October, St. Louis is locked in the middle of a vicious, nasty NL Central race that will likely come down to the last week.  They've got a lot to play for, and they will surely want revenge on this Atlanta team that threw them into a bit of a tailspin in late July.  Since getting swept by the Braves and losing four of five to Pittsburgh, the Cards have gone 10-9, allowing Pittsburgh to maintain its' lead on them by one game coming into today's action.  Yadier Molina missed most of that time on the DL, but has since come back and raked, hitting .370 with two homers in the last week.  That freaking guy.

This is the last series of the season where a split would/should be considered acceptable, especially considering the recent blows the offense has sustained.  Get the hell out of there with no more injuries, get home, and start working toward October. 

Series matchups:

Tonight, 8:15 (local broadcast and MLB Network)

Paul Maholm v. Joe Kelly

Friday, 8:15 (local broadcast)

Kris Medlen v. Adam Wainwright

Saturday, 7:15 (local broadcast)

Julio Teheran v. Shelby Miller (must watch!)

Sunday, 2:15 (TBS)

Brandon Beachy v. Lance Lynn

This one hurts

In case you missed it, Jason Heyward was nailed in the right jaw by a Jon Niese fastball during yesterday's game in New York.  The jaw was fractured in two places, and he'll be on the shelf for at least a month, perhaps even the rest of the regular season.  Four weeks from today puts him back in time for the September 20-22 series in Chicago against the Cubs.  Six weeks from today is October 3, just in time for the first round of the NLDS. 

The loss of Heyward is an incalculable, devastating blow to the Braves' offense.  Since June 9, he's hitting .291/.373/.495 (BA/OBP/SLG), but he has been even better than that during the recent hot-streak.  His performance on the field and on the basepaths has been equally impressive.  He is the most dynamic player on this team, and his work in the second half of the season was making everyone forget about the first half.  It's a real shame to see him go down as he seemed to be hitting a zenith.

Compounding the issue is the fact that by the time he is ready to come back, the minor league season will be finished.  He may go to the instructional league for a few days just to get warmed up, but it will be hard to go from cold to full-speed in a week.  One silver-lining in all of this is that he theoretically should be able to perform baseball activities sooner rather than later, considering the injury occurred on a part of his body that he doesn't use to exert strenuous amounts of energy.  To put it another way, a leg injury precludes one from running until it's fully-healed, and thusly, one is at the mercy of the leg.  The same can be said for the arm and throwing.  Obviously the head is infinitely more important than both of those in the grand scheme of things, but when it comes to baseball, it doesn't see as much action.

Going back to 2002, the Braves have averaged 14.7 trips to the DL per season, most of them being of the 15-day variety.  The main outliers were 2004 when they only sent eight all season, and the 2006 and 2011 seasons which saw them send 17 each time.  Heyward marks the 19th Brave to make a trip to the DL this season, and seven of those trips have been season-ending, not including Jason's.  And they still have the best record in baseball by three games.   Go figure.

Speaking of the best record, losing Jason makes that much more interesting.  The Dodgers haven't lost a game since the beginning of July, and St. Louis and Pittsburgh are hanging tough too, as is Cincy, albeit to a lesser extent.  That race is of the utmost importance as it guarantees the Braves home-field advantage in the NLDS against the winner of the one-game playoff.  It was never going to be a slam-dunk, but now it's a little too interesting.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Simba's amazing season

Andrelton Simmons' proficiency at SS comes as no surprise to anyone that follows baseball closely nowadays.  Despite playing in only 49 games last season, he left enough of an impression to compel many to declare him the game's best defensive player regardless of position.  There were plenty of people who were (rightfully) skeptical of that, if for no other reason than the sample size was very small.  Granted, the sample itself was extraordinary, but more time was needed to establish its' legitimacy.

Fast-forward to present day, and Simmons has converted even the most incredulous observer.  Though statistics on fielding are still in their infancy and aren't nearly as infallible as batting data, one in particular stands out: a plus/minus stat (+/-) known as DRS, or Defensive Runs Saved.  In broad terms, DRS is:

“…as I understand it, the numbers determines (using film study and computer comparisons) how many more or fewer successful plays a defensive player will make than league average. For instance, if a shortstop makes a play that only 24% of shortstops make, he will get .76 of a point (1 full point minus .24). If a shortstop BLOWS a play that 82% of shortstops make, then you subtract .82 of a point. And at the end, you add it all up and get a plus/minus.” (Joe Posnanski, Sports Illustrated)

DRS has existed in its' current form since 2003; before that, it was known as "Total Zone", a metric for which data goes all the way back to before the live-ball era.  Darin Erstad is the all-time leader in this category, posting a +39 TZ/DRS playing CF for the Angels in 2002.  To keep it in a Braves-centric context, Andruw Jones' best year in terms of TZ/DRS was 1999, when he was worth +37.  Andrelton Simmons enters today's play with +37, meaning that he is almost certain to shatter Erstad's record.  FanGraphs' writer Jeff Sullivan had this to say about Simmons (the entire article can be read here):

"If you sort everyone by Total Zone per 150 games, we find Simmons highest all-time, a few runs ahead of 2009 Jack Wilson among shortstops. This, right here, is the argument for Simmons having the best defensive season ever. We don’t have quality all-time defensive data, but the data we do have says Simmons is unbelievable."

As a player, Andrelton's WAR-value is derived from three main components: hitting (wRAA), baserunning (UBR and wSB), and fielding (UZR).  Simmons hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboards with the bat this season, carrying a into today's action a wRAA of -11.2, indicative of a hitter that is below replacement-level.  To give some context to this ambiguous number, BJ Upton's offensive performance has been worth -16.8 wRAA.  If Simmons offensive performance matched BJ's output so far this season (.186/.269/.299), he would still have positive WAR-value.

Think about that for a minute.  Hypothetically Simmons could be one of the worst offensive performers in the game among qualified hitters, but because his defense is so spectacular, he would be still be more valuable than just about any Braves' player.  There isn't much room between him and the bottom of the league in terms of offensive output, so that hypothetical isn't far away from this season's reality.  Any contribution he can make offensively is literally icing on the cake.

The true test for Andrelton is whether or not he can sustain this high level of performance.  Defense is usually a skill that peaks early thanks to the body's propensity to wear-down with age.  That's what made Ozzie Smith so special: he performed in an elite tier defensively for so long.  Only time will tell if Andrelton can keep this up.  Fortunately, his offensive profile will likely improve, even if it does so marginally.  He's probably never going to be a serious power threat, but he can drive the ball with authority, and he does a great job making contact.  Going into 2014, if he can improve his plate discipline and make some headway with the bat, even if his ceiling is that of a replacement-level player, his value to the team and as a commodity will skyrocket.  While we're still probably at least one or two more seasons away from having a clearer understanding of the kind of player Simmons is/can be, the leading indicators are very encouraging.  

Here are five gifs to make Simba's case, in case you didn't click on the FanGraphs article above:







(Stats and Info via Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs and Fielding Bible)


Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Mets series preview

Fresh off of a much needed off-day, the Braves make their last trip of the season to the big apple tonight to open a two-game series with the New York Mets.  Yesterday was supposed to be a day off for the Mets, but they found themselves in Minnesota making up a postponed game from April 14.  Because, you know, the outcome of that game could really alter the playoff landscape.  Ahem.  Ahem.

The Braves last played New York roughly a month ago, a series that has special significance for two reasons: first, Tim Hudson's broken ankle, and second, the Braves are 19-3 since that series.  The Mets are 12-13 over the same time span.  The Braves started their long winning streak after the Mets series, sweeping the Cardinals and proceeding to go undefeated for two weeks.  The Braves open a huge series in St. Louis on Thursday night.  Perhaps lightning can strike twice.

One notable change since we last saw the Mets: they've called up Travis d'Arnaud, the jewel they acquired in the deal that sent R.A. Dickey to Toronto.  He has accumulated twelve major league at bats but has yet to get a hit, though he does have five walks.  d'Arnaud is generally considered to be the Mets' catcher of the future, and he likely would have been up much sooner had he not fractured his first metatarsal in his left foot back in April. 

The Mets have been a surprise this season; outside of Atlanta, they have likely had the most successful season of all the NL East teams.  The emergence of Matt Harvey, Zach Wheeler, and Juan Lagares, not to mention the good work of Dillon Gee, is a net-positive for this franchise.  With that said, they have some looming financial obligations that will surely make things tough on ownership; chiefly, the $320M loan against the team is due in June 2014.  Their total debt against SNY (owners of broadcasting rights) is over $600M and is due in 2015.  Luckily for them, the contracts of Jason Bay and Johan Santana come off the books after this season, freeing up $32M.  Though these numbers seem daunting, the general consensus amongst those in the industry is that the Mets will have money to spend this winter.  It would not be surprising to see them contending sooner rather than later, possibly as soon as next season, but more likely 2015 and beyond. 

The Pitchers:

Zach Wheeler goes tonight in his third start of the year against the Braves.  Wheeler has been hit-or-miss lately, pitching a twelve-strikeout gem against San Diego in his last start, but getting lit up by the Royals two starts before that.  His last appearance against the Braves wasn't his best either: 6 IP, 5 K, 2 BB, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 HR.  Remember, this is the guy many people were comparing Matt Harvey to before he came up and began dominating, so the talent is there, but he can get wild.  If he doesn't show up with precision control, look for the Braves to wait him out, tire him down, and let him get himself into bad situations. 

Game two features Jon Niese, who has finally returned to the Mets rotation since going on the DL on June 20.  In his two starts since his return, he has gotten roughed up by Arizona, but he dominated against San Diego.  This hasn't been a great season for Niese, and things don't get any easier against Atlanta, a team that has lit him up in both his starts against them this season.  His line against the Braves this season: 7.1 IP, 15 H, 10 ER, 6 BB, 8 K, 0 HR.  In fairness to him, the start that he was pulled from due to injury came against Atlanta, so it's hard to say just how accurate the numbers are as an indication of his abilities.  Niese doesn't give up many homers, nor does he allow many balls in the air.  He features a four-seam, two-seam, and a cutter, mixed in with a curve and a change.  He's not a high-velocity guy, instead more of a command and control pitcher, and he has struggled with those two aspects of his game this season.  Expect to see Atlanta load up with right-handed hitters, as the lefty Niese is vulnerable against them. 

Series matchups:

Tonight, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Brandon Beachy v. Zach Wheeler

Wednesday, 1:10 (local broadcast)

Alex Wood v. Jon Niese

Saturday, August 17, 2013

Coincidence?

There's a better than average chance Teheran was throwing at Bryce Harper that night in Washington a couple of weeks ago, because this is baseball and that's what baseball players have always done.  Boom.  Easy.  Movin' on.

The second one looked accidental, not only because Alex Wood reflexively showed contrition, but also because it was a 72-mph curve, not exactly the sexiest pick of pitches to "send a message" with.  Harken back to Goodfellas: the scene where Tommy DeVito (Joe Pesci) shows up at the bar to take out made-man Billy Batts, but instead of beating him within an inch of his life, throwing him in the trunk of a car, and driving him upstate to finish the job, they disagree in a cordial manner and skip away, arms interlocked, into the sunset.  That's basically what happened between Harper and Wood. 

Avilan's pitch, uh, well, this one gets into a grey area.  It sure looked like he was throwing at him, but he had to know a) the score of the game, and b) that Harper had been hit once already.  Avilan was lucky to not get ejected, though Fredi pulled him anyway.  The level of tension shot through the roof, and there were a few seconds during which it looked like the Nats' bench would storm out of the dugout and burn Turner Field to the ground.  The rabid Atlanta howled on in an uncharacteristically delirious manner, desperate for a theatrical, climactic event to satisfy their blood lust.  Harper stood at first, lips pursed, shutting out all that surrounded him.  Love him or hate him, the level of restraint he showed was impressive.

Here's the thing: although the Braves have basically locked up their first division title in eight years, they're still locked into a race that has taken on critical importance: the race for the best record in the NL.  Pittsburgh, St. Louis, and Los Angeles all pose the most eminent threat to Atlanta winning that race, and as such, every game matters, especially when Atlanta's harsh home/road splits are considered.  In that context, it would be insane for Avilan to purposefully put the team in a position to potentially drop a game that should have been a run-of-the-mill, boring, nine inning one-run victory, right?

The dynamic between these two teams has clearly soured, and it's easy to understand why.  As discussed earlier here, these two clubs handle their business in a different way.  That's not to say that either of them are right or wrong, it's just how the circumstances have shaken out.  What it comes down to is this: Harper pimped a HR off of Teheran in a game that Washington lost, in a series Washington lost, in a season that Washington has lost.  Was the pimp-job any more blatant or egregious than Justin Upton's when he hit the grand slam off of Paco Rodriguez?  Or perhaps Evan Gattis' when he barely cleared the wall off of Roy Halladay?  Probably not, but that doesn't matter.  It doesn't matter because when you're the big bully on the block, you do what you want.  Atlanta won those games, those series, and they're going to win this division.  Harper pimping his HR off of Teheran is the same as a running back spiking the ball in the end zone when his team is down 49-7 with two minutes to go in the 4th quarter.  What happens to that guy the next time a defensive end gets a clear shot at him in the backfield?  He gets smoked.  Win, and you are afforded the right to a certain degree of flair.  Lose, and those rights are implicitly revoked.  If you choose to go against these unwritten rules, expect retribution in some form or another.  It's an unwritten rule that transcends baseball. 

Bryce Harper is a fantastic talent, one that I personally enjoy watching, except when he's playing the Braves.  His personality lends itself to breaking these social graces, and that's not necessarily a bad thing, as it adds to his mystique.  While his indignant grandstanding immediately after the Teheran incident was rather unbecoming of a team leader, his digestion of righteous fury in last night's game was upright and poignant.  His eyes told the story.  Revenge is a dish best served cold.  He'll have all winter to chill it for next season.

Friday, August 16, 2013

A word or two on Charlie Manuel

Charlie Manuel was relieved of his duty as manager of the Phillies today, in a move that isn't so much surprising in the sense that you didn't know it was possible, but more so in the sense that he has probably earned the right to "retire" after the season.  Instead, Ruben Amaro Jr. (henceforth known as "RAJ") decided that August 16 was the day that the Phillies were too far gone, that today, in the midst of a horrific 5-19 stretch post-AS break, he couldn't justify keeping Charlie in place, relative to yesterday when they were one game better, a marginal difference that is entirely void of meaning as far as the Phillies' disastrous campaign is concerned. 

I've been rooting for the Phillies to turn it around for a while now, as doing so would only prolong the inevitable, but this move is the beginning of that "inevitable" scenario.  You would think that presiding over the most successful run in team history, including a World Series championship in, and finishing as the most decorated manager in the history of the franchise would lend one some leverage insofar as getting to leave "their way" is concerned.  RAJ, or whoever is pulling the strings, obviously disagrees, and thusly, Cholly is finished.  It's likely only a matter of time for RAJ as well, but he may get another shot since Manuel wasn't technically "his guy."  Meanwhile, new manager Ryne Sandberg has his work cut out for him.

This is essentially the equivalent of Bobby Cox getting the axe in the middle of 2008 thanks to the ineptitude of his general manager.  As a fan, how would that make you feel?  I'm not saying Manuel deserved to stick around beyond 2013, and his departure seemed to be a foregone conclusion for anyone paying attention, but look at the state of the team this season: they're terrible!  Is it really worth firing a guy who brought your city and fans an enormous amount of happy memories and good times?  Not to mention the net-gain from the economic impact of the impressive 257-game sellout streak that Charlie Manuel was present for.  All because your team that you probably knew would suck ended up actually sucking slightly more than you thought it would?  Seriously?

Good luck with that.  If I'm a Phillies' fan that wasn't sick of RAJ and the ownership group before this, I'm definitely done with them now.  They are the baseball equivalent of a supergiant star collapsing in upon itself, apropos considering the black hole that looms for their franchise. 

Nationals series preview and a note on The Rev

The misfortune of Washington's season is well-known at this point, so I won't bore you rehashing it.  They're probably baseball's biggest disappointment this season.  Until recently, any lingering frustration that existed in their clubhouse was kept well under wraps, out of the public eye.  Then, during Tuesday's 4-2 win over the Giants, this happened:


Apparently, Jayson took issue with Gio's "hustle" on a potential double-play ball, but that's just symptomatic of a larger issue.  This team is frustrated, and they know full well that as the air gets colder, the prospect of golf in October becomes increasingly more tangible.  And to think, this happened after the Nats had won three games in a row!  Next time they drop a series, Werth will probably spread a vicious rumor about Gio's stock of hair gel, or Gio will put gum in Jayson's beard, maybe even make a "Duck Dynasty" joke. 

Speaking of streaks, the Nats would be entering this series having won six straight had Rafael Soriano not blown a save yesterday to San Francisco.  They have played much better ball since opening the second half with six consecutive losses, but they are showing themselves to be a clear step below the games' elite teams, having been swept soundly by both Detroit and Atlanta during that time span.  Regardless of how good or bad they play out the next six weeks, their season is almost certainly over.  They enter today's play with a 1.6% chance of making the playoffs, all of those odds attributable to winning a wild card spot, according to Baseball Prospectus. 

The Pitchers:

Rookie Taylor Jordan makes his first trip to Turner Field tonight, he of the somewhat sizable skewness between ERA (4.14) and FIP (3.48), an indication that he has perhaps fallen victim to the mishaps of a Nats defense that is well below league-average, having racked up negative 25 (-25!) DRS over the course of the season.  Jordan has never posted eye-popping K-rates, but he has been a quality control guy.  He generates a lot of ground balls and doesn't give up many homers.  He features a fastball that sits in the low 90's, a slider, curve, and change.  Atlanta has feasted on rookies at times this season, especially the second and third time through the order, but Jordan has given Washington quality innings.  Most of those innings came against the woefully inept offenses of the Marlins, Brewers, Phillies, and Mets though, so tonight will be a big test for him against an AL-style offense in a hostile environment (and an unseasonably cool one at that). 

Stephen Strasburg takes the mound in game two.  Strasburg has been tough on the Braves this year, throwing at least six innings and holding them to two runs or less in all starts save for May 31, when he left in the 2nd inning due to injury.  Strasburg is a classic case of why win-loss records for pitchers literally, literally, do not matter.  While this hasn't been his most dominant season, he would still be the best pitcher on just about any staff in baseball, Atlanta included.  For a more in-depth analysis, click here

The aforementioned Gio Gonzalez goes in game three, a guy Atlanta has hit hard historically.  His line from his first two starts of 2013 against the Braves: 9 IP, 14 H, 12 ER, 1 HR, 8 BB, 12 Ks.  His latter two starts this season have been much more effective, but he's still a somewhat high-strung guy that can be had mentally, not unlike Matt Garza.  Still, he's one of the better lefties in the NL, so when he's on, he's as good as anyone.

Series matchups:

Tonight, 7:30 (local broadcast and MLB Network)

Taylor Jordan v. Alex Wood

Saturday, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Stephen Strasburg v. Mike Minor (love it)

Sunday, 1:35 (local broadcast)

Gio Gonzalez v. Julio Teheran (love it more)

Tonight's lineup:

Heyward 9
Upton 7
Freeman 3
McCann 2
Johnson 5
Schafer 8
Simmons 6
Janish 4

**A note on Pastornicky: according to Dave O'Brien's Twitter, The Rev will undergo season-ending surgery for a torn ACL.  I hate to see anyone get hurt, and this isn't meant to "call him out", but with all due respect, he never should have been on that ball.  I'm not convinced his instincts are where they need to be for a middle infielder.  With that said, I hope he is able to bounce back in a big way in 2014 and wish him nothing but the best.

(Stats and Info via Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, and ESPN)

MVP: Most Valuable (starting) Pitcher

When people discuss the Braves, or at least the current version of the Braves, the offense is always the focal point of the conversation.  This stands in stark contrast to recent history, as the Braves' franchise has more or less become synonymous with excellent pitching thanks in part to the glory days of Maddux, Glavine,  and Smoltz, but also because the Braves have done an incredible job developing pitchers lately.  Minor, Teheran, Beachy, Medlen, and Wood are all home-grown talent, and the pipeline is still flowing.  While the bullpen was assumed to be the best in the game going into this season, the starting pitching was a bit of a question mark, and rightfully so.  Last season left many questions unanswered: how much does Huddy have left?  How severely will Kris Medlen regress?  Is Mike Minor capable of being good for a full season?  Will Teheran ever live up to the hype?

Anyone that doubted the ability of this starting rotation, or the ability of this franchise to find, develop, and leverage pitching talent, must feel foolish.  The Braves come into today with a starters' ERA of 3.58, an FIP of 3.62, an xFIP of 3.66, a tERA of 4.15, and perhaps most telling, a SIERA of 3.78.  Those aren't league-leading numbers (though they do rank in the upper-third of all MLB teams), but they are likely on the high-end of a reasonable person's expectations for this pitching staff coming into this season.

There are two major caveats to consider when reviewing those numbers.  First and foremost, the Braves' bullpen is at or very near the top in nearly all the major statistical categories.  While the bullpen's impact on a team isn't even close to the impact of the starters, it still affords Atlanta some marginal leeway as it relates to performance.  Luckily, they don't need it.  Although they trail a few teams in the rankings, the numbers speak for themselves; this pitching staff has the potential to be as good as any.  Except for Detroit.  The Tigers have a once-in-a-generation staff this season.  But this isn't a Tigers' blog.

The second caveat to consider is how the faces in the rotation have changed recently.  Hudson is done.  Maholm won't throw in a meaningful sense for another week at least.  For most teams, losing those two would be a death sentence.  Enter Brandon Beachy and Alex Wood.  Everyone knows what Beachy can do, the question is, what will he do?  Beachy should be able to pitch to a ~3.75 ERA/FIP/SIERA for the rest of this season, tuning up for a big 2014 campaign.  Anything more is icing on the cake.  As for Wood, it's hard to know what to expect for the rest of the year, but his performance thus far has given reason for optimism.  If he can make a few more quality starts between now and Maholm's return, Fredi may have a hard time supplanting him in the rotation.  In a worst-case scenario, Paul Maholm comes back and does his best pre-injury-Paul Maholm impression for the rest of the season.  Hey, it worked up to this point, and it's not like he'll be starting in games in the playoffs.  Meanwhile, Alex goes back to the bullpen, making a spot-start here and there for Teheran and Beachy, as the former has never pitched more than 144 innings (he's at 143 right now) and the latter is probably touch-and-go at this early stage of his return, though his last two starts have pacified some concerns.

Mike Minor and Julio Teheran have been the steadiest, most consistent contributors on the staff so far, perhaps even on the entire team.  If you go by the "traditional" stats, their performances appear to have many similarities.  Dig a little deeper, and the difference becomes clear.  Though Teheran's performance has definitely been a sight for sore eyes, he hasn't quite performed up to the level of Minor.  That's not to say his showing in 2013 should be considered a disappointment.  Many of his peripherals are trending in the right direction; his swinging-strike rate is 10.3%, a career-best, and he's generated less contact on balls in and out of the zone while the amount of swings taken against him have remained constant.  It's worth keeping in mind that Julio has done all of this while utilizing arguably his best pitch, his changeup, very little relative to his earlier minor league career.  The changeup is the ultimate "feel" pitch, and although we haven't seen it much this season (~5% of his total pitches), don't be surprised if he works it into the repertoire in 2014.  Were there not such an exceptionally strong rookie class in the NL Teheran would likely be a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate, but given the performances of guys like Matt Harvey and Jose Fernandez, Teheran has found himself an afterthought in the conversation.

As many people expected prior to the start of the season, Mike Minor has been the closest thing to an "ace" as Atlanta has on the roster.  He has been way ahead of the ZiPS projections, and is establishing himself as one the NL's top lefties.  His 3.2 fWAR is tops on the team regardless of position, and ranks 16th among all starting pitchers, ahead of names like Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Stephen Strasburg.   His 3.09 FIP leads the starters on a top staff, and while he's not a "true ace", he's well on his way to becoming one.  He should eclipse 200 innings in the regular season, and he's a sure bet to start game one of the NLDS.

Collectively, this staff (bullpen included) is probably the best one Braves fans have seen since 1998.  The starting staff doesn't quite measure up to that '98 squad when you isolate their performance from the bullpen, but it's probably the 2nd best staff since '98, and certainly no lower than 3rd.  This season, they've got a good argument for being the best staff in the NL, high praise considering the staffs in St. Louis, Pittsburgh, and Los Angeles.  Mike Minor is at the forefront of that, and thusly, deserves consideration when determining this team's MVP.

Monday, August 12, 2013

Phillies series preview (and Maholm update)

The Braves look to continue their winning ways against the rival Phillies, with the teams set up to play three at Turner Field before Washington comes calling.

The wheels have officially come off the wagon for Philadelphia, as they've played pitiful baseball since the All-Star break and have fallen 13.5 games further out of first during that time, leaving them at 19.5 games out of first entering today's action.  The Phillies' starters have posted a collective 6.55 ERA since the break, easily the worst in baseball, and considering Cole Hamels' ERA is 2.67 over that span, one can truly start to appreciate just how bad the rest of the rotation has been.

This season has been a nightmare for the Philly faithful who entered 2013 with an optimistic eye.  The positives have been few and far between.  Most frustrating is Ruben Amaro Jr/ownership's refusal to cash in some of their older, more expensive trade chips for younger, though perhaps more volatile, pieces that could pay dividends in the future.  The franchise entered 2013 with a vision of making the playoffs, and when those hoped were dashed and reality set in, instead of realigning expectations and being self-aware, the Phillies doubled-down.  Since the trade deadline, they're 2-8; since the All-Star break, they're 4-17.  And they're keeping all the players that made that possible, save for Delmon Young, who really has no business playing professional baseball anyway.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: if you're a Braves fan like me, all of this should read as music to your ears.  The longer and more complicated this rebuilding process becomes for the Phillies, the better off we are.  The positive gains from being injected with shiny new TV-deal monies are mitigated considerably when the order of the house is in a state of disarray; some of that money will have to go towards cleaning up the mess, yet another in a long list of inefficiencies that the Phillies will have to contend with in the future. 

The Pitchers:

Cole Hamels is not having the type of season he'd hoped to have in year one of his six-year, $144M contract.  That's not to say that he hasn't been pitching well (he has), but he hasn't reached the levels of dominance he has previously achieved, not to mention he has fallen victim to terrible run support and a bullpen that has blown many a lead.  His fastball hasn't dominated the way it has in previous years, nor has his cutter or curveball.  He has not faced the Braves since Opening Day when he surrendered seven hits, three earned runs, a walk and a homer to Justin Upton.  He has pitched at least seven innings in every start except for one since the beginning of July.  Though his peripheral stats have regressed slightly in 2013, Hamels is still a top-tier lefty, and he's a good bet to bounce back to an elite level next season. 

The name Ethan Martin should stir up a vague memory or two for most Braves fans, seeing as how he made his major league debut against them ten short days ago.  During that start, he last four and a third innings, allowing eight hits, six earned runs, two homers (McCann and Chris Johnson), and walking three.  His only other start came against the Cubs, a game that saw him have considerably more success, as he allowed only one earned run and four hits over five innings to a powerful Cubs offense.  Still, he walked three, and as his minor league résumé indicates, control is not something that comes easy for this kid.  On paper, this is the most winnable game of the series, which probably means that he'll end up throwing a no-hitter.

Game three features John Lannan, the notorious Braves-killer.  Lannan's last start against the Braves came on August 3, a game in which he allowed two earned runs on four hits whilst walking two.  Unfortunately for Lannan, things went from bad to worse in his next start, during which he lasted five innings while getting shelled for eight runs on nine hits, including two homers, not to mention five free passes.  It's worth noting that Lannan made his start against Atlanta on three-days rest, and while it's impossible to know how the short break affected him, pitchers are notorious for being creatures of habit.  Though the sample-size is limited to two starts, Lannan's performance since that hiccup in the rotation has been exceptionally horrific.  

Serires matchups:

Tonight, 7:10 (local broadcast) 

Julio Teheran v. Cole Hamels

Tuesday, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Kris Medlen v. Ethan Martin

Wednesday, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Brandon Beachy v. John Lannan

Tonight's lineup:

Heyward 9
Justin 7
Freeman 3
McCann 2
Johnson 5
Uggla 4
BJ 8
Simmons 6

**Quick note on Paul Maholm: he pitched six simulated innings recently and there have been no reports of any ill-effects.  Fredi Gonzalez said it would likely be at least another week before he saw any live action.  It's safe to assume he will make at least one rehab start, if not more. 

(Stats and info via FanGraphs and Crashburn Alley)

Sunday, August 11, 2013

Plate Discipline and the Braves

Much has been made of the evolution of the Braves' offense.  They have matured from a HR-dependent approach to a more diversified, well-rounded brand of run production.  Their methods are unorthodox but leave little to be desired, as they enter today's game the NL's second-best offense behind the St. Louis Cardinals. 




MLB ranks in the above categories:

O-Swing % (outside the zone swing %) - 16th
Z-Swing % (inside the zone swing %) - 4th
Swing % (cumulative swing %) - 11th
O-Contact % - 25th
Z-Contact % - 30th
Contact % - 29th
Zone % (% of total pitches seen in the strike zone) - 23rd
F-Strike % (first-pitch strike %) - 13th
SwStr % (% of swinging strikes from total strikes) - 2nd


Reviewing the plate discipline stats of the Braves - if it's in the zone, they're going to swing, and when they swing, they're swinging for the fences.  They don't make much contact, but when they do, it's perhaps pound-for-pound the strongest offense in baseball.  They're selective enough to be able to maintain the third-highest OBP and second-highest BB% in the NL, so the negative effects from the lack of contact aren't felt to their fullest extent.

Relative to the NL's other top offensive teams - the aforementioned Cardinals and the LA Dodgers - the Braves don't make nearly as much contact in general, nor do they see as many pitches in the strike zone.  And why would they?  The stats clearly demonstrate that the Braves' hitters are willing to swing at balls off the plate.  On top of that, the swings they're taking aren't measured, calculated attempts - they're looking to put the ball over the fence.  For some teams, this would be worrisome; check that, it is worrisome for some teams, as many teams that have the same offensive profile as Atlanta are teams that are well-below .500 (hello, Astros!).

So why does this approach work for the Braves?  Simple - despite the fact that the Braves swing and miss a lot, they're still selective about the pitches they're swinging at, as their high OBP and BB% demonstrate.  And again, when they do make contact, look out, because they're aiming to put it over the fence.

Some look at Atlanta's offense as a type of grand experiment - can this type of offensive profile translate into success?  As the sample size has increased, the answer has evolved into an increasingly louder "yes". 

(Stats via FanGraphs)

Friday, August 9, 2013

Marlins series preview

The forlorn Miami Marlins limp into Turner Field tonight having lost five straight, and their prospects are grim against an Atlanta club that is currently playing an elite brand of baseball. 

Well chronicled are the struggles of the Fish, who enter play at 43-70.  Everyone knew 2013 would be a wash for them, but there are a few silver linings for Marlins fans.  Giancarlo Stanton is still one of the more explosive young outfielders in the game, Jose Fernandez is establishing himself as a front-line starter, and that's just the tip of the iceberg.  The Marlins aren't scared to start the arbitration clock on a player if he can help them win, and it's in that context that their minor league depth must be considered.  Many people in and around the industry see the Marlins as a franchise sitting on a goldmine of talent, but given the erratic nature of owner Jeffrey Loria's past maneuvers, speculating as to when and how that talent will help them win is likely a fool's errand (though that won't stop some from trying).

Series matchups:

Tonight, 7:30 (local broadcast)

Jacob Turner v. Brandon Beachy

Saturday, 7:10 (local broadcast)

Nate Eovaldi v. Alex Wood

Sunday, 1:35 (local broadcast)

Henderson Alvarez v. Mike Minor


(Info via Grantland and ESPN)

Thursday, August 8, 2013

Checking in on the offense

All stats are post All-Star break unless otherwise specified.

Offense (as a team) in the 20 games since the All-Star break:

.275/.343/.422

wRC+: 113

K: 19.7%, BB: 8%, BB/K: .40

wOBA: .336

ISO: .147

BABIP: .322

Batted ball data:

LD-20.6%
GB-45.3%
FB-34.1%
HR/FB-12.9%

Summary: Not many surprises here.  The K% is continuing to fall as it has since the start of the season.  The BB/K ratio is roughly season-average, as is the BABIP.  Couple that with a LD% and HR/FB ratio that is slightly below the season-average for this team, and you find yourself looking at an offense that has been producing at a high level without (collectively) relying upon lady luck to fill any voids.  The power has fallen off slightly, likely due to the recent struggles of Dan Uggla, Evan Gattis, and the amount of playing time Terdoslavich and Johnson received due to BJ Upton's injury.  The OBP is higher than average, likely due to Heyward's emergence in the leadoff spot, Chris Johnson's league-leading hitting, and Simmons receiving fewer at-bats, among other things.

The top individual performers (in descending order):

Justin Upton - 342/402/582
Freddie Freeman - 324/400/500
Jason Heyward - 281/406/474
Chris Johnson - 370/407/457

BJ Upton would be on this list, at the top of it no less, were his performance not limited to five games and 23 plate appearances.  A triple slash of 476/522/571 and wRC+ of 213 looks amazing, but some of the shine comes off when the sample size is taken into account.  With that said, he appears to be on the verge of being, uh, the opposite of what he was.

The solid contributors (in descending order):

Andrelton Simmons - 256/307/451
Brian McCann - 231/306/446

Simba's performance is actually an improvement over his season numbers, believe it or not.  Combined with his defensive contributions, his output level leaves little to be desired, especially now that he's in the eight-hole, a place his bat plays very well.  McCann is currently plagued by a drop in LD%, but the power is still there.  He will be fine.  

Below-average performers (in descending order):

Dan Uggla - 151/279/301
Evan Gattis - 246/269/308

Uggla has seen a serious uptick in his GB% which, when combined with a very low BABIP, equates to poor offensive performance.  He's also not walking the way he had been, but that will likely change as plate discipline is not a skill one loses this late in one's career.  It may be wise to drop him in the lineup until he figures things out.  As for Gattis, his power has fallen off the radar, and with Terdoslavich hitting well, he doesn't figure to get many at-bats in the outfield.  The book is out on him throughout the league, so just as pitchers have adjusted to him, he'll need to adjust to the pitchers. 

(Stats via FanGraphs)

The Manifestation of the Killer Instinct

In the blink of an eye, the Braves have given their identity a total makeover.  It seems like a lifetime ago when many a pundit and prognosticator spoke of the Braves in an indifferent, if not speculative, tone.  Now with thirteen-consecutive wins in the rear-view mirror, people address this team with a heightened sense of revelry.  Is it deserved?  Absolutely.  It's not often that teams put together one double-digit win streak, much less two in the same season.  To do so in such a grandiose, bloodthirsty fashion as they have makes it all the more impressive.  Sweeping the best team in the NL, then three more teams on top of that, is remarkable.  We'd all be just as impressed had they taken two of three from St. Louis and Colorado, swept Philadelphia, and taken two of three from Washington.  Instead, they just went ahead and won 'em all.

The sweep of Washington stands as the high-point of the season thus far.  Whether they were trying to or not, the Braves made a statement during that series, one that transcends any media fodder or nonsensical Twitter battle.  This season, the NL East is sole property of the Atlanta Braves.  The Nationals are a talented team, one with nothing left to lose, fighting mostly for pride at this point.  Oftentimes those teams are the most dangerous.  Instead of allowing them to renew their sense of purpose, the Braves broke them.  You could see it in Bryce Harper's eyes just as well as you could see it on Davey Johnson's face.  The Nats' season is over.

One last note on the Nationals and the Bryce Harper situation: they seem to be a club driven by a sense of bravado, and Harper is at the head of that.  Juxtapose that with the stoic nature of the Atlanta franchise that has been so prevalent since the glory days of the early 90's, and it's clear that the mantras of these two clubs are at odds with one another.  Is there a lingering resentment between the two clubs due to the stark contrast in their clubhouse cultures?  An outsider's perspective doesn't offer much in the way of insight, but it's entirely within the realm of possibility. 

When it comes down to it, pointing a finger and cussing a pitcher from sixty feet away comes off as petulant.  On top of that, if Bryce truly had no intention of challenging Teheran physically (as he stated after the game), then what's the point of standing at a safe distance and berating him?  If you're going to take issue with being hit by a pitch that's fine, but you have to own it.  In baseball, that means charging the mound and rolling the dice.  If you don't want to do that, then shake it off and take your base.

We already knew a lot about Bryce before that moment, but we learned a little more from his reaction in the moment and from his comments afterward: he's a grandstander.

Anyway, enough about the Nationals.  While it has been fun to enjoy this team's performance since the All-Star break, an infinitely more important battle looms: the race for home-field advantage during the playoffs.  In light of the recent win streak, the Braves are probably the odds-on favorite to end the season with the best record in the NL as they have a very easy schedule.  One thing that will work against them is the delicate balance that must be struck between resting the starters and putting the team in the best position to win.  If Atlanta has the division locked up by, say, September 15, it's likely that we'll be seeing a lot of Terdoslavich, Schafer, Reed Johnson, and perhaps even Janish and Laird from that point forward.  At that point in the season, it's likely that Fredi Gonzalez will make decisions about starters on a day-to-day basis, as far as the aforementioned balance is concerned relative to the race for the best record.  His track record in this area has been very good lately, so there's little reason for concern.

If there's one thing to take away from this win streak, it's this: April was no fluke.  The ceiling for this team's performance is as high as any team in baseball, Detroit and St. Louis included.  The talent is certainly there, but more importantly, the killer instinct is there in spades.  

Monday, August 5, 2013

Nationals series preview



The first series in 2013 between Atlanta and Washington took place in Washington from April 12-14.  No one could have known at the time that the series would prove to be a microcosm for the Nats' entire season.  Paltry offense, porous defense, and untimely pitching woes were their undoing during that series and have proceeded to undermine their entire season. 

This is it for Washington.  This series is their season.  At least, they're probably convincing themselves of that.  They have to.  To come out on the other side of this series with a double-digit deficit potentially seals their fate as one of the more memorable disappointments in recent baseball history.  To trim Atlanta's lead to 9.5 games (which would require a sweep) would be provide a much-need morale boost, but even then, the likelihood of making up that deficit is remote. 

Coming into today's game, Washington's playoff odds stand at 4.8%, a number that combines their odds of winning the division (0.1%) and the wild card (4.7%).  Given the strength of the NL Central teams, not to mention the Nationals season-long ineptitude insofar as winning is concerned, the smart money is on Washington missing the playoffs entirely.  FanGraphs projects them to go 27-24 the rest of the way, a reasonable forecast that would put them right at .500 (81-81) for the season.  The 2nd wild card team will likely need ~87 wins, which would require Washington to play 33-18 ball for the rest of the season.  On paper this seems feasible, but they have given no indication at any point that they're capable of playing at that level for a sustained stretch.  They're almost certainly done in 2013, and it's not entirely due to their poor play; Atlanta has been a much better team from the outset.

The Pitchers:

Stephen Strasburg gets the start in tonight's game in the midst of another fine season, though he has not achieved the levels of dominance that many have come to expect.  While his strikeouts are down slightly from last year, his velocity has not changed in an appreciable way, and his walks have been stable.  He has been getting more ground balls at the expense of line drives, and he's remained stingy with homers, allowing less than one per nine innings.  He has fared well against the Braves in 2013, going at least six innings in two of three starts (he was pulled with injury during his most recent start on May 31).  Though he doesn't walk many, Atlanta's patient lineup can and has worked him for a few free passes before, specifically during his April 29 start during which he issued four walks in six innings.

Game two features Gio Gonzalez, a guy the Braves have had little issue with in recent times.  Gonzalez's peripherals are almost identical to last year's, except his HR/FB ratio, which has doubled.  Like Strasburg, he has faced Atlanta three times this season, but he has not fared as well as his counterpart.  He is notorious for having control issues and has given up at least one BB in all of his starts so far in 2013.  His most recent start against Detroit saw him implode, allowing ten earned runs and eleven hits in three and a third innings.  When he's on, he's as good a lefty as there is.  When he's not, he's his own worst enemy.

One of the league's most unheralded pitchers goes in game three, in the form of Jordan Zimmerman.  He's having a very strong year and is establishing himself as the unsung ace of the staff.  He features a strong fastball mixed with an array of offspeed stuff highlighted by a wipe out curve.  He has faced Atlanta once this season, pitching an eight inning masterpiece of two-hit, no-run ball.  He has been a model of consistency throughout the season, with his only major blemish a blowout loss to the Dodgers a couple of weeks ago.   

 Series matchups:

Tonight, 7:05 (local broadcast)

Mike Minor v. Stephen Strasburg

Tuesday, 7:05 (local broadcast and MLB Network)

Julio Teheran v. Gio Gonzalez

Wednesday, 7:05 (local broadcast)

Kris Medlen v. Jordan Zimmerman

Tonight's lineup:

Heyward
Justin
Freeman
McCann
Johnson
Uggla
BJ
Simmons

Regardless of the outcome of this series, one thing is certain: after this season, the words "World Series or bust!" will become as taboo in Washington as "Infield Fly" is in Atlanta.  

(Stats and info via Baseball Prospectus, Hit Tracker Online, and FanGraphs)

Friday, August 2, 2013

Small sample size alert: Heyward leads off

Tomorrow marks a full week of Heyward hitting at the top of the order, and given the performance of the offense during that span, it's probably safe to assume that the lineup tinkering will be put on hold for a while.  Heyward has done nothing but strengthen his hold on the spot, mashing a triple slash line of .321/.424/.643, with a one-to-one (1/1) BB/K ratio, a wOBA of .448, and a wRC+ of 192, and three homers.

The fact that he's leading off instead of hitting second has nothing to do with the impressive run he's on, but Fredi's decision to let Heyward get the most at-bats while leveraging Simmons in a more appropriate spot is a wise one that should pay dividends as the season starts to wind down and game situations are magnified.  Heyward's better at getting on base, he's faster, and he has better instincts on the base paths than Simmons.  That's just the reality of the situation.  All of these characteristics are desirable in the "ideal" lead off hitter, and as such, it only makes sense for Heyward to be that guy.

The issue comes full circle when Andrelton Simmons' recent performance is taken into account.  During the past week, he's hitting .393/.414/.571.  While his batting average is heavily aided by a high BABIP (.404) during that span, it's good to see him hitting well and hopefully building some confidence in himself.  In the eight spot of this lineup, having someone that makes good contact and doesn't strikeout much is a plus.  Uggla, Johnson, and McCann are all high OBP guys, and in a situation where a runner is on third with one out, if a sac-fly (or contact in general) is needed, Simmons is the guy you want up there.  Taking walks and running the bases well aren't his strengths, and it's nice to see that recognized, instead of attempts being made to force him into a mold he doesn't fit into.

Being a manager is all about leveraging the strengths of your people.  Lineup optimization is not a make-or-break type of managerial decision; instead, it's a decision whose effects are felt most at the margins.  Often, those marginal decisions end up playing a large role in the outcome of events.  Fredi's decision to take action and rectify this situation for the betterment of the offense is a forward step. 

Phillies series preview (updated)


Fresh off a 7-0 homestand, the Braves find themselves right back on the road again to face a Phillies team that, for all intents and purposes, is on its' last leg.  The dynamic in this series stands in stark contrast to the last time these teams met in the city of brotherly love, as the Phillies have gone 2-10 since the All-Star break and now find themselves well outside the realm of contending for a playoff spot.  A month ago, the Phillies used their series win against Atlanta as a springboard to a sweeping first half finish, a run that put them in second place ahead of the Nationals and espoused the notion that this aging core had one more run left in it.

Well, the aging core doesn't have another run in it, and their disastrous second-half start only goes to confirm that.  Many believed that Utley, Papelbon, Lee, and Michael Young would find themselves in different uniforms by the time tonight's game rolled around, but they remain inexplicably bonded thanks to a GM that appears to be living in a fantasy land.  Sure, teams can still make trades in August, and there's a good chance that Michael Young still gets traded, but the longer the inevitable is postponed, the fewer buyers there will be when the time finally does come to make a deal.  Fewer buyers means less competition, and less competition for the services of an aging player means fewer commodities are commanded in return for his services.

As it relates to the Braves, this is wonderful news.  Here's what we should be hoping for from the Phillies going forward: an August surge that propels them back into the NL wild card discussion, only to be followed by a September collapse that occurs late enough so as to prohibit them from receiving any substantive return for their valuable trade chips.  Add to that a winter that sees Ruben Amaro Jr.'s contract extended and, well, now we're just being greedy.

This series is not nearly as important as it would be were the Phillies still in the race, but making headway towards a .500 record on the road is important.  This stadium plays smaller than most parks, and the Braves need to take advantage of that. 

The Pitchers:

Ethan Martin will make his major league debut tonight, starting in place of Cliff Lee who is day-to-day with a sore neck (side note: the Braves have had a ton of luck missing other team's aces this season.  I'm looking at you, Kershaw).  There isn't much information available about Martin, but his performance as an Iron Pig (Lehigh Valley, AAA) has not been particularly impressive, and his control does appear to be an issue, as he has allowed 5.21 BB/9 at the AAA level.  He'll probably throw a shutout.

Game two of the series has no starter listed for the Phillies.  It's Jonathan Pettibone's spot in the rotation, but he too is injured and on a day-to-day basis, so this one is up in the air.  He may be able to start it, or if Cliff Lee is up to it, he may get the nod.

John Lannan will start the Sunday night Saturday afternoon game.  Lannan has pitched very well against the Braves in the past few years, all of those starts coming as a member of the Nationals' starting rotation.  He has gone at least five innings in all of his starts against the Braves dating back to the start of the 2011 season, and has not given up more than three earned runs in any of those starts.  He has been a net-positive for this Phillies rotation in 2013, and his FIP on the season is an impressive 3.37.  He is a ground ball pitcher that relies primarily on a fastball that sits in the high-80s mixed with a good curveball and changeup. 

Cliff Lee takes the mound for game three.   He has been as good as ever, but he's always hit or miss against the Braves.  So much for dodging aces. 

Series matchups:

Tonight, 7:05 (local broadcast)

Kris Medlen v. Ethan Martin

Saturday, 4:05 (FOX national broadcast)

Brandon Beachy v. John Lannan

Sunday, 8:00 (ESPN national broadcast)

Alex Wood v. Cliff Lee

(Info courtesy of FanGraphs and Hit Tracker Online)

Hello, I Love You

It's always easiest to be a fan during win-streaks, especially when those win streaks include two sweeps (one over the best team in baseball) and a +35 run differential.  It goes without saying that this version of the Braves' offense is the one everyone has been waiting to see.  During the seven-game surge, the Braves have been walking more (8.3%), striking out less (18.8%), and not just hitting for power (.172 ISO) but hitting anything, everything, everywhere (.397 BABIP).

The Braves' K% dropped nearly another two percent from June to July, going from 21.7% to 19.8%, marking the fourth-consecutive month the rate has declined.  After finishing April with a rate of ~25%, and being well on their way to setting records at that pace, the Braves' aggregate number has fallen to 22.3%.  That's an improvement of nearly 10%.  Let's look at the month-over-month numbers:

K%:

March/April-25.1%
May-23.3%
June-21.7%
July-19.8%
Season-22.3%

Changes in other peripherals act as further evidence of the evolution of this offense.  They're relying less on homers, but the power hasn't fallen off the map.  The BB% has fallen, but the OBP has been steady despite the change.  They're driving the ball more and making more contact on balls in and out of the zone.  Part of this is likely attributable to regression from the extreme "three true outcomes"-type of statistical picture painted by this team so far, but the signal leading this noise is a tangible change in the type of offensive output many thought this team capable of.

The Braves are not a team of slow, lumbering sluggers that strikeout a dozen times per game as many national pundits would have you believe.  Taking the stats from May and June and assuming April was an anomaly is a fool's errand; statistical sample sizes can't be isolated in a vacuum.  Looking at the trends over the course of the season shows clearly that the offensive identity of this team is changing.  They're still marginally inclined to the "three true outcomes" of power, walks, and strikeouts, but they're not restricted to them, and their ability is not defined by them. 

With four months in the books, the Braves' offense has put up two months of wRC+ performance of ~101, or marginally better than league-average, and two months of ~110, or considerably better than league-average.  Their season-average wRC+ is 107, a well above-average mark that stands tied for first in the NL with the powerful Cardinals.  This is a team capable of sustaining that type of output without fear of extreme regression or caveats due to luck.  Considering this offense has yet to operate at full capacity, there's reason to be optimistic about their future performance. 

(Stats via FanGraphs)