Assessing the state of the Nats

The Braves play their 54^th game tonight, marking the 1/3 point in their season.  Their record is reflective of a team that has met many expectations, exceeded a few, and fallen woefully short of a few others.  Such is this case with most any team one might suppose, and considering the offensive output compared to the notable underperformers (BJ, Heyward, Uggla, Justin Upton in May), one would be hard pressed to go wanting for a better position at this point of the season.  It is under these somewhat ambivalent circumstances that the Braves meet the anguished Washington Nationals for the third time this season.  

May has not been kind to the Nationals, who have limped their way to a 14-13 record on the month and find themselves looking a 5.5 game deficit to catch Atlanta in the NL east.  Offensively, the Nationals have been a disaster, and only the Marlins, a disgraceful excuse for a professional sports franchise, boast a worse on-base percentage.  Like Atlanta, they’re striking out a ton (22.3% of the time to Atlanta’s 24%), but unlike the Braves, they are not walking enough to mitigate the effect (7.4% of the time to Atlanta’s 9%).  The most telling statistic about the Nationals offense is their dreadful team wRC+ of 82, good for 28^th in MLB ahead of the Chicago White Sox and the aforementioned quad-A Marlins.  This a team that is not hitting as well as it could, and the impact of Jayson Werth’s DL stints as well as the slow starts of Adam LaRoche and Ryan Zimmerman demand consideration when attempting to reconcile the rest of season expectations with their performance to this point.  Baseball’s version of Evil Knievel, Bryce Harper, has been the only consistent bright spot for the Nationals, but his inability to stay on the field has hampered the offensive production for a team that needs him in the lineup to be successful.  

The starting pitchers have performed much closer to expectations.  Despite early questions about his health, Stephen Strasburg has pitched much more effectively lately, and Jordan Zimmerman has established himself as one of the most unsung right-handers in the NL, worthy of #1 status in a rotation without Strasburg.  Gio Gonzalez has been effectively wild, and while he hasn’t recaptured the magic that made him such a hot name last season, he’s still an excellent number three starter.  Ross Detwiler has worked the smoke and mirrors show very well thus far, outpitching his peripherals to the benefit of an inflated ERA, and Dan Haren is Dan Haren: you know he’s going to break, it’s just a matter of when.  Zach Duke and Nate Karns have made spot-starts for the Nationals, neither with much to show for it.

In the bullpen, Drew Storen is drawing the pointed ire of Washington fans so far this season, while Tyler Clippard has been good enough on the surface so as to avoid unwanted scrutiny.  A deeper look shows that Clippard has been the recipient of some batted-ball luck, whereas the inverse is true for Storen, and thusly, we can expect to see a little regression for each throughout the course of the season.  This is a push for the Nationals as it relates to this particular circumstance, but it is a net-loss for the welfare of the team.  The most consistent performer has been Craig Stammen, a right-hander with big splits between righties and lefties, but the support from his underlying numbers to allow one a measure of faith in his performance.  Former Brave and current closer Rafael Soriano has pitched well also, but even he has some alarming peripherals pointing towards a cloudy future.  The rest of the bullpen situation has been a legacy of brutality for manager Davey Johnson’s club.

While this team will not live up to the lofty expectations heaped upon them before the season started (most notably by Davey Johnson himself), they still possess above-average talent on both sides of the ball.  Also working in their favor is the state of the NL east, which is making a strong case for being the worst division in baseball due to the presence of the Marlins, Mets, and the enigmatic Phillies.  Unfortunately for them, the Braves get to beat up on these teams as well, and with 108 games left and a 5.5 deficit staring them in the face, making up that difference may prove difficult, especially considering that the hardest part of the Braves’ schedule is behind them.  

If you believed that Washington was ~five games better than Atlanta at the beginning of the season, as many people did, then it follows that Washington’s chances of playing ~five games better than Atlanta with 2/3 of the season remaining are small, but not insurmountable.  FanGraphs projects Washington to go 55-53 the rest of the way, ending the season at 82-80, which would undoubtedly be a huge disillusionment for a team expected by most all prognosticators (including yours truly) to win the division and make a deep postseason run.  Those same projections predict Atlanta to go 57-52 the next few months and end at 89-73.  Personally, I think the projections for both teams are too conservative, as I see the Braves closer to 95 wins and the Nationals closer to 90.  Either way, at this point in the season, you have to like the position the Braves find themselves in, and a series win against the Nationals this weekend could prove fruitful for a team looking to win its’ first division title since 2005. 

Series matchups:

Friday, 7:30 (local broadcast)

Stephen Strasburg v. Julio Teheran

Saturday, 7:15 (FOX national broadcast)

Gio Gonzalez v. Tim Hudson

Sunday, 1:35 (local broadcast)

Nate Karns v. Paul Maholm

(All relevant information courtesy of FanGraphs, ESPN, the Washington Post and Baseball Prospectus)

Game 53 recap - Take it and run

This has been one of the weirdest series I can remember.  Four days, two countries, and an excess of runs, pitchers, and errors.  I’m sure both teams are glad to be done with it, but things don’t get any easier for the Blue Jays with game on the west coast tomorrow night.  The news is better for the Braves, who see six games against a beat up Washington club and everyone’s Cinderella, the Pittsburgh Pirates.

As far as I can tell, tonight was karmic retribution for last night’s game.  Seemingly every grounder, blooper, and line drive seemed to find a hole for the Braves.  Mike Minor looked fantastic, much better than his line suggests.  His changeup had a lot of fade, and he was changing levels effectively with his fastball, consistently touching 91.  Had Andrelton Simmons not committed his second error of the series in the sixth inning, Minor may have worked deeper in the game.  He is establishing himself as the best pitcher on the staff, and one of the best young lefties in the league. 

Walden and Wood finished it up, with Walden dominating the eighth, and Wood getting the benefit of an eight run lead on a team that has to fly to San Diego in three hours to close it out.  He looks intriguing, and I am 

excited to see him in a more meaningful situation.

These types of series always seem to give the Braves trouble, so a split is nice to see going in to a big series against a scuffling Washington team.  The Nationals are a .500 team at the one-third point of their season, something that even the most skeptical fan could not have possibly predicted.  I do think they are capable of playing better, both immediately and long-term, but if the Braves can win two of three and go 6.5 games up, it’s means they have to be seven games better than the Braves in ~100 games.  That may prove difficult. 

Adios to Big Juan

Juan Francisco's career with the Atlanta Braves ended today when the team designated him for assignment.  His numbers as a Brave:

Big Juan was never able to control his strikeouts enough to make up for his prodigious power.  I know we will see him again on Sportscenter someday bombing a ~475 HR for another team, probably sooner rather than later.  The Braves have ten days to trade, release or send Francisco outright to the minors.  Fredi Gonzalez said a trade is possible.

Replacing him on the 25-man roster is Alex Wood, drafted in 2012 out of UGA, he of 57 innings in AA-ball.  Granted those 57 innings, plus the 52.2 he posted last season in A-ball, have been as good as you could want from a LHP with a quick but funky delivery.  This is a big move for the Braves, as a lot is riding on this kid coming up and throwing well.  If he does, he may spare the need to make a trade in the next two months, and with all recent financial obligations considered, that would be great news.

In other interesting news, the Kansas City Royals demoted hitting coaches Jack Maloof and Andre David to the minor leagues and named George Brett their hitting coach.  I like this move although I don't know what impact to expect from it, as the Royals have been dreadful offensively in 2013, but you certainly cannot go wrong with George freakin' Brett in that city. 

Game 52 recap - Not for the faint of heart

The less said about this game, the better.  The only bright spots were Varvaro, the return of Walden, and Freeman's offense.  The infield defense had it's worst game in recent memory, with Uggla and Freeman the most egregious offenders.

Atlanta had a good opportunity to seize with the oft-wild Esmil Rogers starting the game for Toronto, but strikeouts and poor plate disciple doomed the Braves from the outset.  They never really seemed to be in this game offensively, seeming all too eager to hack away at pitches outside the zone.

The sooner this game is forgotten, the better.  

A case for more Gattitude

Now that Brian McCann has returned from the disabled list, there is little question that the first string position on the catcher depth chart is his, and rightfully so.  Since 2006, McCann has been one the game’s most consistent backstops, posting five 3+ WAR-value seasons.  He has also been, by all accounts, a model teammate, great with the media and fans, and an overall fan favorite, albeit in the shadow of Chipper Jones. 

When Frank Wren signed Gerald Laird to a two year, $3M contract in November of 2012, he most likely did so thinking that Laird would be the primary backup to McCann, and that McCann would be back in time from his shoulder surgery to start the season.  Fast forward to spring training, and the emergence of Evan Gattis.  No one in the baseball nerdosphere, including your truly, foresaw Gattis playing as well as he has, and I have a feeling that if you got Frank Wren off the record, he would say the same.  Given the nature of McCann’s injury, keeping him rested is of utmost importance, and there are dividends to be reaped later in the season if the Braves can do this successfully.  So the question is, who should be the second string catcher?

There are not many statistics available to rate catcher defense, but there is one measurement that I find particularly useful: the ratio of OZoneStrikes (strikes called on pitches outside the strike zone) to ZoneBalls (balls called on pitches inside the strike zone).  This metric allows us to understand which catchers are most effective at “framing” pitches, or compelling an umpire to make a call that he may not feel bound to make had the pitch not been “framed” effectively.  Here is an example of Brian McCann doing an excellent job framing a pitch from Tim Hudson, just to give you the idea:   

Gattis and Laird grade out accordingly:

Evan Gattis-1.23

Gerald Laird-.48

That is to say, Gattis has framed more strikes on pitches outside the zone, whereas Laird has framed more balls on pitches inside the zone.  This statistic is independent of time spent behind the plate, so long as the player has at least 60 pitches by which he can be judged.  The difference in the numbers between the two may not seem significant, but it is when taken in context: Gattis is more than twice as effective as Laird at this particular skill.

Here are the batting lines for each player through 5/27/13:

The most notable differences exist in the power department.  Gattis’ slugging percentage is 300 points higher than Laird, making up almost all of the discrepancy in their OPS numbers.  Gattis’ bat plays well in a power-heavy Atlanta lineup hitting behind Heyward, Freeman, and Justin Upton, and his bat also plays very well late in games, against pitchers that lack a diverse array of offerings.  There’s no reason to start Gattis over McCann, but there is ample evidence to point towards giving him the reps at catcher when McCann has days off, which leads us to another question: why is Laird getting the start every fifth day with Teheran on the mound? 

Gonzalez’s logic for starting Laird is rooted in Teheran’s spring training performance.  During his successful string of starts that landed him the fifth spot in the rotation, he was caught almost exclusively by Laird.  So, Teheran’s performance thus far can be attributed to having Laird as his battery mate, right?  Well, not quite.  There has been research on the correlation of a pitcher’s performance with a specific catcher (most notably here), but without a very large sample size, it is impossible to assemble any information relevant enough to use in decision-making.  It is understandable for Gonzalez to want a veteran catcher calling Teheran’s game, but why not let McCann be that guy?  He is the first string catcher, and he’s good enough to catch four other starters, all of whom have more service time than Teheran.  He’s also the best pitch framer of the three catchers on the roster (his OZoneStrikes to Zone Balls ratio is 1.33), and this doesn’t even consider his offensive prowess, which is more comparable to Gattis than Laird.  He offers a veteran presence blended with more productive pitch framing aptitude, and is an appreciable upgrade offensively. 

Perhaps there is an intangible benefit that Laird provides, invisible to those of us not privy to the inner-workings of a clubhouse environment.  At the end of the day, the essence of this issue is a net positive for the Braves, but if it isn't managed properly, any marginal benefit to be gained could very easily be lost. 

(Data for this article courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus)

Game 51 recap - No Upton, no cry

From the first pitch, this was a strange game.  Paul Maholm didn’t pitch as bad as the box score would indicate, and Toronto’s right-handed power was bound to give him problems, but five earned runs are five earned runs.  Avilan gave a great performance, and Gearrin had one of the more impressive outings I can remember from him, traversing the minefield that is Bautista, Encarnacion, and Arencibia in the ninth with no issues. Kimbrel had another shaky save, giving up a walk, and nearly throwing the ball into the Blue Jays dugout on a pickoff attempt. 

In spite of their bad start, Toronto is still a dangerous team.  It will be nice to take them out of their element in Atlanta, where the series continues tomorrow.  I can't remember the last time I saw a series that was split down the middle with games being played in both cities, but that is the infinite wisdom of the MLB schedule at work.  

Game 50 recap - cool hats!

No need to get down and dirty on this recap.  I cannot offer any insight, as I spent much of the game eating dinner and driving home from my parents' house.  As is evidenced by the Leverage Index, the BRAVES were never really in this game.

That Gattis fella is a good hitter, and hey, he's not bad behind the plate either.  I should have something up about our catching surplus later this week.

Thank you from everyone here at Chop Centric (me) to all that have served, are serving, or will serve this great country of ours.  God bless all of you. 

(Leverage Index courtesy of FanGraphs)

Game 49 recap – Shaun Marcum’s father is Greg Maddux, and his grandfather is Tom Seaver

Let me begin with a declaration: I am not a fan of the ESPN broadcast team.  I am sure they are nice guys, and John Kruk’s self-deprecating brand of humor is better than listening to Hawk Harrelson, but generally, I prefer other broadcasters (read: any broadcaster).  The problem with national broadcasters is that they do not offer any interesting insight to players on either team, aside from what they gleaned in their scramble to do game prep, but because I am a silver-linings kind of guy, I can say that I am happy to be privy to the fact that John Kruk sweats through his shirts to the point they morph from clothing into garbage.  But I digress.

Tonight the Braves attempted to take a patient approach with Shaun Marcum, in the same fashion they had with Dillon Gee and Jeremy Hefner.  The results were nothing short of calamitous.  Thanks to Marcum’s Hall of Fame pedigree and Bill Miller’s idea of a strike zone, Marcum breezed through seven innings racking up twelve Ks before giving up a two-run blast to Dan Uggla on a hanging breaking ball. 

Julio Teheran did not have his best control, allowing three walks, but his command of his fastball and curve was good enough to mask the control issues, and he continued his streak of strong starts.  He was the biggest question mark in this rotation going into the season, and after his shaky start, he seems to have found his groove.  Luckily for him, he has exclusive rights to the team talisman, Gerald Laird.

It is situations like the one Cory Gearrin found himself in during the bottom of the eighth that I would love to see Fredi Gonzalez go to Kimbrel for a five out save (or hold, in this case).  The strategy of baseball managers for as long as anyone can remember is to save your closer for ninth inning.  Well, when your lead is on the line, why not bring in your best relief pitcher to stop the bleeding?  You can talk about saving him for the ninth all you want, but if the other team has the lead, there may not be a ninth inning for him to pitch in.  After John Buck tied it up, and Mike Baxter was brought in to PH for Marlon Byrd, there was no reason for Gearrin to be in the game.  After Gearrin hit Baxter, there was really no reason for Gearrin to be in the game.  It is easy to sound confident about this move after the game is over and we know the outcome, but that does nothing to invalidate the point.  In a high leverage situation, one would ideally want to put the best reliever in baseball in a position to help the team win.  Gearrin stays in, Ike Davis gives the Mets the lead, and in the midst of these happenings, Craig Kimbrel is listening to Anthony Varvaro talk about the great deal he just got on his Maserati.  Ugh.

The score held, and the Mets took the final game of the series, 4-2. 

TANGENT ALERT:

Individualism is one of many qualities that make this country great, and I know that I am most certainly in the minority as far as my musical tastes and preferences are concerned, but I struggle to think of a more inferior rendition of “God Bless America” than the one delivered by the “Liberty Bells” during the seventh inning stretch.  I do not understand the need to take creative liberties with a 95 year-old song just because you’re in front of 27,296 people.  Irving Berlin just texted me (from beyond the grave, mind you) and said he and Kate Smith are preparing to get their haunt on.  I am usually anti-ghost, but am all too willing to make an exception in this case. 

(Leverage Index courtesy of FanGraphs)